Could China fail? Will China Collapse?

Could China fail?
#chinasnewnormal
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 Could China Fail? This claim has been made for past 30 years, so why has China’s bubble never popped?

01:55 There are 3 main themes about China’s collapse: 1. Systemic risk 2. Societal risk and 3. Matters of survival

04:07 SYSTEMIC RISK There are four main themes: 1. Communist party of China 2. Debt of China 3. Growth Decline 4. Bubbles.

04:17 Communist party of China. Is China rigid or the country that has been reforming and changing more than any other country. Is the CPC decentralized or centralized
06:49 Debt of China. Debt of China is high, but much based on domestic saving, which is better manageable. The biggest risk is local government debt where sale of land is decline.
09:45 Growth decline. China will slowdown in GDP growth, but as China is the second largest economy and that means that China will continue to add more to its economy than any other country in the world. Consumption will solve the growth decline over time as Chinese start spending more instead of saving.
12:45 Real-Estate bubbles. China will not head into a financial crisis because of the bubbles because China has more instruments to manage their bubbles.

16:11SOCIETAL RISKS There are four main themes: 1. Environment 2. Demography 3. Productivity 4. Middle-Income Trap

17:13 Environment China is the biggest polluter in the world, but also the biggest investor in renewable energy capacity in products and connectivity on the grid. This is a bigger opportunity than it is a problem

19:30 Demography China’s population is shrinking and as factory of the world, this is a huge challenge for the future of China. The opportunity lies in the triggering of social reforms, innovation and raising the productivity to deal with the demography issue.

22:02 Productivity The productivity in China is much lower than the Western world. But this is a huge opportunity as China wants to educate their citizens to increase the value each worker and add more robots and automation, which they are doing faster than the Western countries.

24:41 Middle-Income Trap China could be stuck in middle Income trap, which is been claimed for decades. In 2023, China will reach the high-country status. This issue is less of an issue as millions of people are joining the middle class every year now

28:00 SURVIVAL RISKS There are four main themes: 1. Unemployment 2. Taiwan 3. Resources 4. Tech War

29:12 UNEMPLOYMENT This is in my view the biggest risk for China to continue China’s growth. Unless they contribute to the value of society this could derail China. Only by opening China’s markets further, this will not be simple to resolve.

32:13 The red line: Taiwan A war in Taiwan is unlikely, but an incident could happen. Especially in 2024 with the election in Taiwan and in US, the Taiwanese independence will become a campaign topic. That is dangerous as it could spark the tensions even more.

34:46 Resources: Water, Food and Energy China needs to become more self-sufficient on these 3 resources. China however needs to work with the world to resolve these matters, and therefore their cooperation with the global South on trade of resources in exchange for products and innovation from China.

ABOUT PASCAL COPPENS:

BOOK - CHINA's NEW NORMAL

[dryeoh]

Pascal, Gordan Chang is correct. China had collapse - poverty had collapse and 800 million people had left poverty; automobiles is collapsing as the EV had destroyed the car industry; GDP had collapse from 14% growth when GDP was 1 trillion to current 5% growth of the current GDP of 18 trillion. The BRI had collapse and 140 countries are in it. USA is growing extremely well from the previous debt of 12 trillion to the current debt of 31.4 trillion - great growth. Homeless had grown extremely well in LA, Washington DC and California at a great pace. Germany's economy is great and Britain growth is great in the negative territory. USA and Western countries should be happy because China had collapse 20 years ago.

[charlesyang]

One famous adage “you can change system but you can NOT change party in China, whilst you can change party but can NOT change system in US”. This best explain how dynamic CPC is to meet Chinese insatiable demands in all directions and the secret is never hidden by CPC which is “never stop and never satisfy yourself in self-reform”. This can be further justified by the fact that CPC has approval rating over 90% amongst Chinese and still increasing by the years.

[Imperialist_India]

Not a fan of Gordon Chang but people like him are playing the west for fools telling them what they want to hear for $$$

[edwardkon]

Pascal, the naysayers have, for ages, been predicting that China is going to fail like a broken record spinning on a turntable. But you know what - none of them has proven to be right.

[JL]

Fair and thoughtful analysis from someone with actual China experience through living in China and looking at things without a tainted lens. Thank you for your contribution towards people’s better understanding.

[JohnnysCafe_]

China has the smartest government that is thinking ahead, they are all about infrastructure and supply, it's the US that is in such massive debt that it can never be paid, the US is already bankrupt and by raising the debt ceiling they are putting the collapse off a few more years when it will be worse, then whilst it's beyond broke it's spending more on military spending when no one is threatening them, the only way out of the inevitable collapse is to start WW3 and we know they are always at war and will do it. The US military is the biggest threat to the world.

[KC-pmmf]

Presidential Shi said only reunion peacefully with Taiwan. Not a forceful reunion with Taiwan.

[picandvideo]

Why predicting a prosperous country to fail. A wishful thinking out of evil psyche. 😵‍💫

[kckoay]

Penzai (pronounce bonsai in Japanese) is an ancient Chinese art traceable to the Tang Dynasty (618 to 907 AD). The Chinese word “penzai” literally means “tray planting.”

It is the art of growing and depicting artistically formed trees, shrubs in miniature landscapes in small and often shallow trays. The art demands careful and precise controlling and pruning where the plant is slowly shaped to give the appearance of an older, mature tree. The ultimate goal is for the tree to finally take on a shape that resembles how the tree would look growing in nature.

In order to achieve that desired effect, the bonsai master will at times allow the tree to flourish uncontrolled. At other times, he would use wires to control and shape its growth. If he exerts too much control, the tree dies. Lack of control, and the tree grows wild. It is through the act of balancing between allowing the tree to flourish and under controlled growth, he creates a master piece.

The Chinese economic planners fully appreciate that laissez-faire economics theory — the dependence on the equilibrium of supply and demand to efficiently direct the production of goods and services — is a fallacy. If left alone and let the market do its own thing, the wealth gap would aggravate with no protection of the inalienable rights of the masses against the minority rich and powerful. Hence, certain key economic functions are retained in the hand of the state. The recent regulatory framework designed to rein in the unfettered power of internet giants is case in point. The result is — a more equitable and sustainable growth.

[PSX]

The west has been pushing this collapse for decades.

[joem]

99.999% of the people don't get China because a country of over 1B people almost 30 provinces, in a diplomatic environment of almost 200 countries is just a very very complex thing which nobody has any experience running. People who have visited China a couple of time talk expertly about it as if they know all the answers. The country is big, the challenges are also big in a way that ordinary people whose life experience is running a business of 1, 10 M or even over billion cannot comprehend. Do you think Tim Cook or Elon Musk can run China successfully ? But the fact is that China has been an enormous country with enormous challenges for many centuries and only the Chinese govt in Beijing and all the provinces know really what these problems are. And they are the only people who has any experience governing that. They are not going to appoint Jeffery Sacks and Larry Summers to tell them how to do it. Russia took their advise of shock therapy and see what happened to Russia in the 1990's. China always did it their way to marketise plus everrything else, and against all odds, against all foreign predictions of collapse, they came through so far. They must know something you and I don't.

[lionvictor]

Great video Pascal. You are right in every aspect of presentation. Truth prevails.

[eddiehah]

Mr. PC, you are just awesome, Thanks for the info.

[sarahkhan]

China is a catalyst for global trade economic cooperation friendship. China is a blessing to the world. Well done 👍❤️🇨🇳

[Ldsyldsy]

Those who are familiar with Chinese history know this: the Chinese people will accept humiliation, but they will not accept defeat. Those who suppress the Chinese people will be toppled.

[nmew]

1989 Western Propaganda: Without democracy in China, No Development
2000s Western Propaganda: Without democracy, *NO SUSTAINABLE development*
2010s Western Propaganda: No country can experience indefinite economic growth, democracy is necessary to act as a safety valve when the economy slows... *BLAH.. BLAH... BLAH*

[chenchlla]

I love the subtle humor scattered throughout the presentation, thank you.

[EkantBhairab]

Chinese people are intelligent and kind as well. This soft power is more powerful than wars and bombs and this is why west hates China 🇨🇳❤️🙏

[DavidLee-iegv]

A big thank you for your comprensive analysis of China pass, present, future and possible uncertainty of certain issues.
As for Gordon Chang, he is definitely history and a waste of time even to mention him.
Thank you again Pascal.

[CarpsterKing]

The main problems facing the Anglo Saxon and EU countries concerning about China is that they cannot fathom how China has developed their economies and the whole infrastructures and social reforms at such warp speed .. they have no comprehension and answers to all these phenomenon except to create barriers and hurdles ... to envy ..contain and demonize China ...their obsession with China has come to a point that if there is an iota or indication of any unfavorable events happening in China be it politically...socially ...economically or natural disaster they will jump on the bandwagon like making a mountain out of a molehill to create chaos and disinformation . It is so ironic that the Anglo Saxon and EU countries are now in a more worse and dire situation on their social. economic and debts problems than China and yet they enthusiastically focus their malign intentions against China disregarding their own impending disaster which is already at their doorstep...