Could Chinese military really invade Taiwan if US was neutral? Part 1/2

This is the first video in a two part series, pitting People's Republic of China versus much smaller Republic of China. It analyzes the numbers and capabilities on both sides, as well the strategic implications stemming from the geography of the area. Air and naval war are discussed, with the invasion of the island of Taiwan left for the second video.

Music by Matija Malatestinic

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[scottmason]

Never underestimate a man fighting for his home

[radiumdude]

The only real war seems in the comment section here 😂

[NeMayful]

This should be updated again now, since it might really happen just soon

[LoudRevised]

I like how Binkov at the end of each video he says Binkov talks about hypothetical war but true peace is needed to keep us together. It reminds us war has a cost

[craigkdillon]

By "neutral", I presume you mean "non-belligerent". The US would still trade with Taiwan and sell it weapons and munitions. Also, the US would supply Taiwan satellite intelligence, as we did to UK in the Falklands conflict, where we were also "neutral".
The word "neutral" is ambiguous. The US can be "neutral", yet give significant aid & support, which I presume we would do.

[MemestiffGaming]

All these armchair generals in the comments

[brucetucker]

We'll see what happens in part 2, but I think you're vastly underestimating the difficulty of mounting an amphibious invasion over open water against serious opposition. The US and Britain (along with other Allies) did this in WW2 but it wasn't enough to gain bare superiority, it required absolute air and naval supremacy to make it possible - and even then operations like D-Day were so touch-and-go that on June 6 Eisenhower carried in his pocket a prepared statement to give to the press in case the invasion failed and the Allied troops were slaughtered.

Taiwan wouldn't have to win the air and naval war, all it would have to do is have enough forces survive to make the crossing suicidal for slow, vulnerable transports. Just one or two surviving subs could easily sink a dozen transports carrying tens of thousands of men or vital equipment. And the fighting on the beaches would be hideous for the PRC. Read up on the horrible cost extracted by very outnumbered garrisons on Tarawa, Peleliu, and Iwo Jima against invasions supported by hundreds of ships and thousands of planes without a single enemy ship or plane in sight. Of course China won't run out of soldiers or tanks, but they might run out of ships to deliver them and keep them supplied for a grueling ground campaign against a highly skilled and motivated enemy fighting to defend his own country. And unlike the Allies in 1944-45, the PRC has no experience conducting amphibious invasions like this.

[thomasjust]

China can attack Taiwan and win, without question, the issue is the price it will pay in its economy, standing in the world and casualties

[km]

the question is more how much of a fight Taiwan could put up ... i.e. how much damage can they cause before they are forced to surrender.

[davidsevern]

Would you ever think about doing an updated version of this? With a more modernized Chinese military and new Taiwanese defense systems bought from the US.

[peterl.]

This is scary. I hope it never happens in real life.

[Andrew-fezi]

Realistically China has an 8 hour window to finish the invasion. Most Taiwanese war games last 8 hours cause that's the time for the air Force to arrive from the US.

[jackzhi]

It's mainland China v.s. Taiwan. Plus this will be considered as a civil war, since 'officially' the war between PRC and ROC hasn't stopped since 1940s.

[martinford]

I'm sure the plan is to last long enough till Japan and US come to its aid, but a lot would depend on it having nuclear missiles to not be attacked in the first place.

[lahavmorris]

Put the british empire vs the Russian empire in 1800s

[stormeeds]

Respect for announcing paid promotion - interesting video concepts + transparency = subbed in under 30 seconds.

[MagikarpMan]

I love the way the thumbnail isn't "could tiwan win" it's "could tiwan survive"

[paulpowell]

Always fun to listen to. Well investigated and thought out

[MrLee-qzgy]

You forgot Taiwan secret weapon. Bubbleistic missle and long range stinky tofu.

[hansonwise]

Even in the Department of Defence of ROC(Tiwan), this war is counted by days.