The Odds of Life and Intelligence

If we re-ran Earth's clock, would life arise again? Would another civilization eventually evolve? Astrobiology is faced with trying to contextualize our place in the Universe using just a single data point. But even a single data point contains information. The key to unlocking it is a careful understanding of the selection biases at play and intricacies of Bayesian statistics. Today, we're thrilled to present to you our explainer video of a new research paper led by Prof David Kipping that provides a direct quantification of the odds of life and intelligence on Earth-like worlds, based on our own chronology. Presented & Written by Prof. David Kipping.

Previous episodes to catch up on:

References:
► Smith, H. & Szathmáry, E. 1995, "The Major Transitions in Evolution", Oxford, England: Oxford University Press

Video materials & graphics used:
► Outro by Carl Sagan from his book Pale Blue Dot

Movies/TV scenes used:
► Agora (2009)/Focus Features
► The Martian (2015)/20th Century Fox
► Noah (2014)/Paramount Pictures

Music used in chronological order:

And also...

THANKS FOR WATCHING!!

#AreWeAlone #Astrobiology #CoolWorlds

[CoolWorldsLab]

Thanks so much for watching everyone, make sure to like/share/subscribe if you enjoyed this! This has been a major research effort over the last year and I'm thrilled to finally share it with you. We have so many other exciting projects on the horizon but only so much in the way of research resources to pursue these thrilling ideas. If you want to support our research, you now can through the Columbia Just Giving platform - www.coolworldslab.com/support - thanks for anything you can do to help us unravel the Universe's secrets!

[tiago]

This channel is a gold nugget on YouTube. Such interesting content.

[artemis_smith]

I love how the main host basically turns his peer reviewed papers into layman's terms videos for those of us who either can't access peer reviewed papers or have trouble digesting their dense text. Thanks, to both him and everyone else who helps these videos happen.

[natemododragon]

I can’t even begin to tell you how, first off, fantastic this man is. This is a college professor explaining the universe to you. That in itself is a phenomenal fact. Secondly, he’s doing it on YouTube, which means one of two things. Either he wants to spread this knowledge to the masses, appreciating the thought of the knowledge itself, or he wants his work and research out in the masses. Either way it’s a fantastic thing. Maybe he just has fun doing it, but I’d like to think otherwise 😁 but the man cites his sources and provides the formulas as well. So remarkable!

[genelowe]

How lucky are we to live in an era when a mind such as David's is but a click away!!!

[Orannis-scipio]

The rigorous qualification of most claims in your videos is extremely refreshing. So many arguments in popular media are based on absolutes that this is a remarkable deviation from the vast majority of communication, including science communication. Thank you for the excellent content Dr. Kipping.

[MarianelaGuzman]

Did not expect this video to be so wholesome! 😂 We do have to make many assumptions just to get to any hypothesis, thinking of "human intelligence" as point of comparison when this concept can be something else, intelligence for an alien organism could be something we can't even imagine. But that's a completely different topic. Truly fascinating. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and knowledge with us.

[rajashreekhalap]

This is the first time I've heard such a thoughtful, logical, carefully-argued answer to this question. Next time someone asks what I 'believe' about alien life I'll show them this video. Thank you for your wonderful outreach work.

[ButterflyAngle]

I've only watched this video about 10 times. I imagine that I'll be here another 10 times as well. Thanks for all the arguing points Cool Worlds. You guys help me look and feel a little smarter then i really am to my friends and loved ones.

[keatonklemencic]

I would really like to know why someone would thumbs down this video. The only thing I can think of is thank it presses their mental limits.

[MJS_]

i love and appreciate that this man doesn't talk to his subscribers and viewers like they're uneducated children, his videos are so interesting and they just pull you in like a trance. another wonderful video, great job 👍

[N.M.E.]

I was literally just watching this video when a science journal i read here in Germany notified me on my phone about this new study using Bayesian statistics to determine the probabilities of life and intelligence by a certain David Kipping... Sadly they didn't link this Video :D
Keep it up professor! You and your channel are a true gem on YouTube

[MrAXDM]

Your video re-inspired my imagination and made me think of these more fundamental factors rather than just basing my assumptions for the existence of life on the huge amount of stars out there in the universe. I look forward to reading your paper!

[MrAKG]

Dude your videos are so awesome. For the past couple months I’ve been getting more and more and more interested in space and just everything about it and just how mind bendingly insane space actually is. Its so awesome to have people like you who know so much to be able to learn from. Keep making videos man love it

[chartmaster]

The way you articulate points, your voice and tone..your unbelievably high degree of intelligence..it's all like one big massage for my brain, thank you very much.

[onetickpulse]

You’ve really outdone yourself with this video Prof. Kipling. This channel feels like a pioneer that paves the way for all future space related exploration. Thank you!

[louiscypher]

The thing that has always annoyed me Is that everyone! Assumes that life needs the same conditions to exist.

[dannydonovan]

This not absolutely knowing is fascinating. How much we just don’t know boggles the brain .
Can’t get enough of the theorising and love these videos.. thanks to the people that have put in the work producing these ...👏👏

[MrSabotage]

How Cool is that I fall asleep to these vids every night for months now. Even cooler that I wake up and find myself a lot more happier than the day before.
Cannot thank these guys enough!

[MarioBuildreps]

An intelligent approach. We see on Earth that intelligence is rare.