Exploring The Power of Probability

What is the probability of our existence? Neil deGrasse Tyson and cohosts Chuck Nice and Gary O’Reilly learn about the probabilities all around us, the idea of risk, and how they factor into our own security in the digital age with cybersecurity expert Alex Cosoi.

Are we hardwired to understand probabilities? We explore how our gap in understanding leads to common misconceptions, from gambling habits to conspiracy theories around lotteries. Learn about the time a physicist conference went to Las Vegas and wasn’t invited back. From survival patterns to why we see lions lurking in the grass when none are there, Neil explains how evolution makes us err on the side of caution.

Why is probability, a fundamental branch of math, still not prioritized in schools? We run through the timeline of the different branches of math. When did humans start taking averages?

What is the probability of you being born? We explore the probabilities of life and the statistics you overcome just to exist. We break down the idea of risk and why humans have a hard time wrapping our heads around it. How has the idea of risk changed in the digital age?

Cosoi shares insights from years on the cybersecurity front lines, including work with Interpol, and the tactics scammers use, from hacking passwords to creating fake concert tickets. We also get the lowdown on avoiding online threats—why complex passwords might not actually be the best strategy, and why your face or voice recognition software may not be foolproof against hackers in the age of deepfakes. Plus, Chuck throws in his own “patent-pending” password protection ideas!

Timestamps:
00:00 - Introduction: Probability
02:49 - The Physicist Convention
06:16 - The Branches of Mathematics
12:02 - Are We Hardwired to Understand Risk?
18:11 - The Probability of Existence
24:20 - Understanding Risk
31:36 - Scams, Hacks, & Data Breaches
43:46 - How to Protect Yourself

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About StarTalk:
Science meets pop culture on StarTalk! Astrophysicist & Hayden Planetarium director Neil deGrasse Tyson, his comic co-hosts, guest celebrities & scientists discuss astronomy, physics, and everything else about life in the universe. Keep Looking Up!

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[nirvana]

Man Chuck is the best really love these more dialogue driven episodes.

[SophiaAphrodite]

Something you will find out very easily. When a city says a portion of the proceedings will go to education they mean is that the casino is paying for it INSTEAD of the city. Education funding directly drops in proportion to the money the casino gives and in almost EVERY instance the city council gives themselves a nice raise. This is ON TOP of the property tax exemption they get for the next 10-20 years. No city should ever allow a casino. IT is almost always rooted in some kind of corruption as those council member always get a bunch of gifts.

[peggysue]

I studied probabilities and I still buy lotto tickets once or twice a month . . . I put money in savings too, but when I'm buying the lotto ticket, I'm buying a couple of days of dreaming about winning.

[beefrick]

Wow. Great episode. The beginning part talking about how unlikely it is that we as a person exist was beautiful. And the second half, well I’ve never wanted to go back to using cash and ditching online shopping so fast.

[jackiehering]

“What is life? A frenetic chase. What is life? An illusion. What is life? A shadow, a fiction. What is life? Life is a dream, and dreams are dreams “
Pedro Calderon de la Barca

[arcs.]

So awesome having my own personal astrophysicist. Though the odds don't look good, I'm positive the rest of you will also find your own personal astrophysicist some day.

[joppadoni]

I love Gary O'Reilly, he is so good on this show..

[BrickTamlandOfficial]

i like that they brought on a cybersecurity person here. i think chuck brought up a good question about password managers. the problem with a master password is that it is the single point of failure. if your master password is somehow cracked or released in a breach then all your passwords will then be public. its good to keep your password vault offline and separate from machines that are connected to the internet. it is hard to use a vault though when the laptop is not able to access the internet.

[gabrielagruzdiv]

Seriously, thank you for always being there for me, guys ♥️

[jonathan_r_lee]

Anyone and everyone, that uses the internet in any capacity, should watch this episode.

[charlesiphone]

Thank you Tyson for reaffirming my beliefs of never blindly trusting so called "experts"

[stellar]

Definitely a guest I would like to see again sometime

[robertacrownover]

Nine minutes in and need to say I'm loving the discussion. I've recently been watching a series about probability and philosophy. Hearing other povs is wonderful.

[ChivoJones]

It would be very nice if you could translate this to different languages like Spanish. I would love to show this to my friends and family abroad. Love the show!!

[stephown]

Thanks Chuck for representing the everyday person in the group.

[rickjames]

This lesson on analytics and risk assessment sure fits these times we are in. This is valuable information that should be absorbed by open minds who like to make a positive difference in the world.sometimes we have to put our emotions aside and let the math make the decision. Could make for a more educated and efficient American society.

[Morganstein-Railroad]

We were taught Statistics at A level in my school (Dynevor Senior Comprehensive) with a teacher called doctorr Jowett. He was very interesting as a lecturer and got me interested in the subject. Good on you, Dr. Jowett. You were one of my favourite Teachers.

[johnvassor]

I have worked with computer systems for over 40 years and I'am a great fan of StarTalk. So I will give some advice on how I keep my computer safe from outside invasions. One way to test the vulnerability of your password is to use a password recovery program with a large wordlist database. If the password program from a trusted computer company doesn't recover your password, then it is a good chance that an outside or online source will not as well. A computer protected by a finger print reader is another way, but can be vulnerable if a gifted hacker knows how to lift the fingerprint from the reader. The method I find to be the best is a computer system using a hand scanner and barcodes that you keep on you at all times. You can use long complex passwords without having to remember them. You just have to keep the barcodes very secure. A two-step execution process is good too, as long as no one clone your phone.

[ChaitanyaShukla]

For us here in Maharashtra(India) Probablility, statistics, set theory, permutations and combinations, calculus were part of syllabus of which stat and sets were taught to anyone who completed 10th grade while rest were compulsory for those who elected to study maths(under science stream while for those who went to commerce didn't learn calculus) in 11 and 12th.

[RaymaughiaPatterson]

Great show, brothers! It was nice to see Chuck back. Meeting Gary and the Bitdefender guy was a highlight; he has a very important job. As Tyson, or perhaps Chuck, mentioned, his work in stopping hackers on a financial level could be worth trillions of dollars. But overall, fantastic show, fellas. Keep it going, and thank you for this!