Stalemate, Setup, or Counter-Counterattack? The Weird Winter of the Russia-Ukraine War

Thus far, neither Ukraine nor Russia has made much progress during the winter. What is actually going on? This video surveys four possibilities. On one extreme, Ukraine may be trapping Russia into attacking at high losses with few gains. On the other extreme, Russia may be engaging in a true counter-counterattack, and Ukraine will soon be put on its backfoot. We may also just be observing winter or a true stalemate.

0:00 What's Happening in Ukraine?
5:11 It's Just Winter
8:07 Ukraine Is Setting a Trap
14:36 A True Stalemate
18:41 A Russian Counter-Counterattack
24:52 A Russian Preventive Attack

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

From Government of Russia:

From Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:

From Army Inform Ukraine:

[davidlium]

One of the biggest reasons neither side mounted an attack is that this winter has been warm and probably very muddy. Therefore, vehicles could become stuck in the mud.

[tomminot]

If the threat of "tanks, etc" is forcing Russ to be hasty, this is good. Hastiness exposes errors and oversites, thus vulnerabilities.

[Sayuameangkis]

These videos will be great insight in the history books for "What did we think was happening" in a post-war world. Many times post war 20/20 makes things muddy of what we thought or knew and didn't know, these will only be more and more valuable as time goes on as a time capsule for that.

[zeriel]

There is a semi-neutral variation on the "Bakhmut Puzzle" so to speak: this is a reframing of the "they are just killing them all there!" explanation. Strategically, an area of no strategic importance in a vacuum can take on strategic importance simply because the enemy is deploying so many forces to it. This can work on both sides simultaneously, and create a synergistic process where they are both there because they see the other side wanting it so badly, and that's the place where they have an opportunity to attrite the most enemy forces, so why not? It's like how in antiquity armies would chase each other around, seeking a conclusive battle to win the war. The center of gravity was not necessarily enemy towns or supply points, but the enemy army.

[SianaGearz]

"Peak freeze" in Ukraine is certainly not the end of February but first or second week of February. So it's basically now, and it's not freezing very well.

[mindbomb]

Just today or yesterday, my favourite expert on this war, General Hodges, said this is not a stalemate now, because both sides are husbanding resources for upcoming offensives -- not trying hard to move lines at the moment. He said, Ukraine's biggest challenge is not to commit its reserve brigades it is re-equipping, training, re-constituting, resting, and preparing for offensives when the weather is better.

[chrisedrev]

Probably option 4 in staggered form, is my guess.

Gerasimov likely wants to advance in Zaporizhia and Donetsk and might try to do it en masse soon.

In the meantime, judging by the intercepts that have been posted, it seems that the "partial mobilization" has decreased in intensity, but not stopped. The russians are training troops in Belarus continuously, which is naturally concerning.

Regarding Bahmut being a trap, that's probably true. It still seems like Ukraine is paying a heavier price than it should, but until they get new equipment this is probably their best bet right now, so they are simply taking it on the chin and hoping it hurts Russia more in the long run.

The one thing that gives me some form of cognitive relief (not emotional though), is that Ukraine has many more volunteers than equipment, as explained by Perun recently. So, Ukraine probably won't have personnel problems due to deep reserves of willing soldiers.

Slava Ukraini, and I hope the ukrainians take as few casualties as possible. Russia should finally withdraw and end this stupid bloodshed. Sad thing is we all know they won't.

[notmyburner]

William, love your game theory series. However, if you're questioning what is going on in Ukraine, especially during this phase. I would say its becoming a lot more clear. For starters lets focus on what units are being used in the fight for Bakhmut. For the Ukrainians its Mainly Elements of the National Guard, TDF, and Foreign Legion. There are troops that most would consider troops not meant for offensive operations, eseentially lower quality troops. Russia is clearly using Wagner convicts and most likely mobilized personnel or LNR/DNR mobilized to take Bakhmut. They are also of much much much lower quality. We see Russia using its better troops on the Vuheldar Axis (Naval Infantry) and on the Kremmina axis (Air Assault/VDV) so we are likely seeing the beginning stages of a Russian offensive in one of those areas. However, its likely to be underwhelming considering Russia's equipment and artillery constraints and how well the Ukrainians are generally dug in.

[injest]

One thing not mentioned about Bakhmut: The total loss of the battle for Bakhmut by either side would cause moral to take a major hit due to its prevalence in the news.

[reviolkande]

Theres a fifth option here. No grand strategy behind the fights for Bakhmut, just war of attrition.

[michaelsedzikowski]

What actually shocked me is that Stephen Seagal was standing on his own legs without a stuntman

[hitrapperandartistdababy]

I think overall its a mix of the 3 from good to semi bad.

I think some parts are becoming a stalemate like Kherson thanks to the dnipro river

Likewise I do believe Bahkmut is used as a Ukrainian trap to get as many casualties as possible for a otherwise unimportant city, it’s also very likely that winter does play a role in the expected zaporichia problem

The only one I find very unlikely is the worst outcome. There are simply too many things that need to be right for Russia for this to happen and its more and more unlikely to be the case

[baronvonlimbourgh]

Everybody saying massive russian winter offensive soon, soon, soon. Everybody waiting, waiting, waiting.
What if last week and this week is russia's massive winter offensive?
And nobody really

[HPS-Wes]

I really like how you make explicit the definitions of causation and conditions of theoretical explanatory frameworks. Is really the biggest reason why most “analysts” of the war are useless, as their definitions of what is a cause and conditions constantly change respective of their position.

[steviejohnson]

If Ukraine can stave off the incoming Russian offensive, I think they have a good chance at mounting another successful counteroffensive with new NATO weapons

[jampasurprenant]

Thank you for your latest updates on the war in Ukraine.

[louisquatorze]

Weather has become a wild card as winter temps have been above average, and the softer ground has slowed heavy armor, hence the slow motion Russian offensive. Spring will be abysmally muddy - if it rains.

[JosephNordenbrockartistraction]

The army without extra dry socks will lose if you don't allow your soldiers to dry up their blisters and heal. Running in wet feet summer or winter brings painful blisters. Every time. I know this personally.

[nartaga]

I've seen Bakhmut compared to the Battle of Bunker Hill in the War for American Independence.
Even if the Russians take the city, the actual cost would be obscene.

[HTFGamesStudio]

If you look at the map, Bakhmut is a medium city with highway road connections to Kostiantynivka to the West and Sloviansk to the North West. By my understanding Russia main objective is to fully conquer the historical Dombass region territory and this means that they need to take the 3 cities mentioned before to be able to encircle the last large city of the region called Kramatorsk. They cannot skip it and go directly to Kramatorsk because they would not have any decent supply line to conquer this large city. In fact, to keep the front line well supplied you need roads and Bakhmut has all the largest roads connected to it that they need.