How Demography Destroys (or Builds) Armies - Recruitment, Retention and Manpower

Whatever its equipment, a military is nothing without its people.

As many militaries struggle with recruitment, the armies in Ukraine grow older, and countries in Asia grapple with the implications of ageing populations, it's becoming clear that getting the right people may be as much of a challenge for forces as getting the right technology.

So today, we look at that age old problem. How do militaries get people, why are so many struggling - and what might they be able to do about it?

Patreon:

Relevant sources and reading:

NATO expenditure data (used for personnel expenditure calculations)

Featured Carnegie piece on ROK manpower challenges

UK Defence Personnel Statistics

Mediazona Russian KIA count

US Army Demographics:

ADF demographics

ROK conscript mobile phone trial

US misses recruiting goal:

father and son deploying together

David Barano and Nora Bensahel - Addressing the recruiting crisis:

CDC data

US Army recruiting reforms:

UK medical classifications 1914

Institutional trust levels:

USAREC:

Jamestown foundation on recruitment and retention in Russia

Reporting on 2024 Russian recruitment ambitions

USAF pilot poaching

Caveats & Comments:

All normal caveats and limitations apply:

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:36 — What Am I Talking About
00:02:33 — History
00:07:57 — The Funnel
00:08:35 — Demography: The Challenge
00:11:13 — Demography: Potential Solutions
00:12:25 — Eligibility: The Challenge
00:17:18 — Eligibility: Potential Solutions
00:19:53 — Propensity: The Problem
00:25:22 — Driving Propensity
00:27:33 — Retention
00:31:22 — Attraction, Retention & The "EVP"
00:37:35 — Looking Abroad
00:45:33 — Modernisation And Automation
00:55:55 — The Russian Case Study
01:04:46 — Conclusion
01:05:29 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

I long hesitated to cover this one but after it won the recent Patron poll, here it is with an observation and a caveat. My observation is that while demography gets a lot of attention, it really needs to be looked at alongside questions of eligibility, propensity and retention. How many people you have in a given age bracket overall is really only the start of the story.

My main caveat on this one is that in trying to cover the topic generally, setting out principles that hold up pretty well in multiple contexts, I'm always going to have to skip nation specific context - like the political, legal or social factors that may impact things like recruitment and retention in different individual countries. So apologies if I glance over a factor that is especially relevant to your nation's story when it comes to recruitment and retention.

So far as Russian and Ukrainian recruitment challenges specifically go, I'll take a deeper look during the next Ukraine update video.

[luigilain]

minute 33: while japanese were starving, american soldiers were getting ice cream.
i read the diary of a german soldier, and that was exactly what got him to lose hope in the german military. it was the 1944 ardennes counterattack, the last major german push, and they had conquered a few allied positions, and they found chocolate cakes. and the soldier was like, that's the moment i understood we would lose the war. we didn't have enough fuel to run tanks, and they could afford to send chocolate cakes.

[jaymacpherson]

Rare exception to recruiting follows: A neighbor was drafted during the US war in Vietnam. He was rejected as 4F, for obesity (body mass index in the 30s).

He was a body builder.

[WhiskyCanuck]

With all the news & opinion pieces coming out lately about the Chinese military, it really makes Perun's video How Corruption Destroys Armies seem really prescient.

[abdc]

"One for mom, one for dad, and six for Sergei Shoigu" Haha that's a good one

[Tallungs]

As a long time fan of the channel, I'm both happy and surprised to see you use my population pyramids. Seeing them getting used makes the effort worth it. If you need some custom made pyramids or demographic data, I'd be glad to help out.

[Matt_The_Hugenot]

Housing, housing, housing. This is a biggie for the UK and US militaries amongst others. US barracks and UK Service Family Accommodation are notoriously bad with problems such as mould, an issue that starts with building on contract at the lowest possible cost and made worse by contracting out maintenance to companies that don't face consequences for doing poor jobs. Pay and conditions matter in attracting and retaining people.

[bill]

I lived in one of the UK towns where lots of Gurkhas retire. Super nice people, extremely humble and cook great food.

[badluck]

It amazes me that the draft age in Ukraine only starts at 27. In the US, the upper limit of the draft is 25.

[carlosthejackal]

Being a Drill Sergeant in the US Army, I challenge what you said about not dropping standards. We ABSOLUTELY drop them to graduate sufficient numbers

[fakshen]

My father was a lifer. If the military would have treated him better, if the VA would have treated him better, he might have encouraged me to enlist. He didn't. He forbid me to join. I see guys getting out now. They are all busted up, disabled, having to do paperwork circles just to get into another paperwork circle... etc.

In hindsight, I think I should have anyways. But when the US military isn't providing the pay, benefits, or care veterans need... you don't enlist.

[conceptlimit]

I do R&D for the Korean military and demographic concerns have become a serious factor in requirements :
Artillery - 2 man SPG team instead of 4 (feasible with better autoloaders, need a separate loader vehicle)
MRL - 1 man team instead of 3(bothersome for the driver-commander but feasible)
Infantry - 4 man squad instead of 9 (requires serious augmentation with unmanned ground vehicles, but we're getting there)
Ballistic Missiles - 3 man team firing dozens of missiles instead of a 3 man team operating 1 TEL (already done)
It's really a mess and I hope it'll get better in the future because I am really despondent about it all.

[TechWechSech]

Genuinly wondering how it became a ritual for me to sit down for a weekly hour long powerpoint on defence economics for nearly 2 years now.
Might not have the answer but please keep them coming 🙏

[thejulinks]

Whenever I hear anyone talk about trust in your military, I can't help but smile and think of how this looks in my country, Austria. Our Bundesheer has a nice little saying that goes "God save/protect Austria... Because we sure as shit can't!".

[danwilliams]

One of the big things that has changed for serving is medical technology. I have a friend who served in early 1980's, 3 years active duty. No problems, no issues. Fast forward to today he had a heart valve installed by VA and they said he had been born with defective valve. If he was 18 today they would have caught it before enlistment but not in 1980. So as medical tech advances they find defects that disqualify a lot of people and also find people with mental disorders, bi-polar, ADHD etc, that disqualifies them. My father in law was drafted 1958 and served 2 years. He was diagnosed autistic, high functioning, but autistic none the less. Would he be eligible today? No he would not, not even with a draft and this goes across the spectrum on who can you recruit or draft

[andrew]

Interestingly in the UK, the armed forces were left out of the large civil service pay increases. Easy to see why the contracts are not being renewed when the private sector is offering a large py increase and better hours.

[davidhofbauer]

I always thought "This channel would do amazing with outlandish graphical content"; and here we are, a week after the Q&A where it was said "I don't have to do outlandish graphics thanks to the community not demanding them" - then out of nowhere he hits us with the "Perun Funnel". Always full of surprises!

[beefsuprem]

My experience of the UK military and recruitment issues are.

Accommodation/housing is shamefully bad.
The UK media is fairly anti military so potential recruits dont see much positive news.

Retention while serving is non existent. Bullying and harassment is rife.
The treatment of veterans and mental health is lip service also.

I wouldn't advise anyone young to join now.

[paulgoransson]

One fairly interesting example of poor incentives was Sweden a couple of years ago. The basic pay for a soldier (at a time when conscription was inactive) was lower than that of the cleaning personel and people didnt understand why noone joined.

[lambhands]

Hey Perun, I think the recent events in Ecuador and in general how other countries in the region build their armed forces to combat well funded criminal organizations could be an interesting topic for a future video.