European Defence & The Russian Challenge - Third Superpower or paper tiger?

Sponsored by Ground News:

Intro:
Throughout 2022, implied or explicit Russian military threats to Europe by Russian politicians or media figures have become so common as to be almost ubiquitous.

In many ways, this is a continuation of long historical pattern dating back to the cold war, when much of Western Europe lived in fear that, at any moment, the Soviet army may come storming West with a phalanx of metal and manpower. For many European leaders, the assumption long was that only the USA could serve as a meaningful counterbalance to the Soviet threat.

Even with the end of the cold war, NATO wargames and academic papers alike have often modeled scenarios where Russian forces maul NATO opponents, occupying the Baltic States or Poland in short order, demanding an American response.

But 2022 has also proven the Russian military is not what it claimed to be, and so it is likewise worth taking stock of what Europe has to offer. For while individually, most European militaries have glaring shortcomings, especially compared to the USA (particularly in the area of munitions storages and readiness rates) taken together they represent and impressive military force.

Patreon:

Sources:
System and manpower figures are as per Military Balance 2021.

NATO budget figures for 2021 (est) are as per NATO release:

NATO Strategic Concept (2022)

INIOCHOS '22 exercise (illustrative of joint exercise/training)

UK MOD aircraft flight hour figures

International Comparisons of Real Military Purchasing Power: A Global Database - Peter Robertson

Russian politicians suggesting Poland is in line for invasion:

Polish Official stating Europe cannot defend itself without the USA

Polling on NATO and common defence obligations

RAND - Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics

Caveats & Corrections:
The use of PPP figures is always fraught with different methods often yielding quite different results. They're useful, and almost certainly necessary if you want an accurate picture, but keep in mind the limitations of the figures used here.

Similarly, while I use MB2021 for consistency between videos for all system/manpower figures, they are not perfect, and in particular the definitions used for active/stored equipment or whether a given unit should count as active/reserve/paramilitary or be ignored entirely is occasionally, in my view, up for debate.

There are also, I believe, three locations where I misspeak in this episode while the backing slides are correct. For example, when the stats on screen refer to PSCs, (big ships) I say coastal combatants or words to that effect. If it sounds odd - check the slide.



Timestamps
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:55 — What Am I Covering?
00:02:46 — SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS
00:03:57 — Evolution Of European Security
00:04:04 — A Militarised Continent
00:05:15 — Nato & The Warsaw Pact
00:06:23 — The Peace Dividend & NATO Expansion
00:08:46 — Ukraine and Beyond
00:10:18 — European Forces Today
00:10:29 — What Are We Counting?
00:11:44 — Let's Talk Money
00:12:23 — GRAPH: Estimated Defence Expenditure (NATO fig.)
00:12:52 — The PPP Factor
00:15:25 — GRAPH: Estimated Expenditure (with PPP Premiums)
00:15:52 — The PPP Picture
00:16:46 — Manpower
00:18:14 — GRAPH: Active Reserve Manpower
00:19:36 — Equipment
00:20:41 — The Full Spectrum
00:21:23 — European Strengths (on Paper)
00:21:38 — European Strengths: Land
00:23:30 — European Strengths: Sea
00:25:42 — European Strengths: Air
00:28:02 — European Strengths: Independent Atomic Deterrence
00:30:47 — Fit For Purpose?
00:32:11 — There is No "European" Military
00:33:41 — Challenges of Division
00:36:20 — Can, Would & Deterrence
00:37:45 — Modernisation
00:38:48 — Depth & Resilience
00:39:56 — Readiness and Mobility
00:41:40 — Comparisons & Capabilities?
00:42:33 — Russia as the Yardstick
00:46:16 — Demonstrated Capabilities
00:48:12 — The Aerial Dimension?
00:49:34 — Cognitive Dissonance?
00:50:44 — The US Comparison
00:51:29 — THe Gap - Power Projection & Nuclear Capabilities
00:54:48 — Opportunities to Grow?
00:57:47 — Conclusions
01:00:07 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

Apologies for the later than average release this week - sometimes copyright checks just take longer than usual.

I'd like to say thanks also to returning sponsor Ground News, who have been recurring supporters of the channel:
Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. ground.news/perun

Ground News is the reason I was recently able to donate (in line with a Patron vote) to the Medical/humanitarian stream of the United24 charity, and I'll be carrying out another Patron vote on where to direct further donations.

so far as big caveats though - I use MB2021 as a source across videos for consistency and its a fairly widely used public facing source. but the reservist figures are often not what I'd have gone with if doing them myself. certain organisations that I would think count as reserves are often omitted. so if a nation seems short on reserve manpower, I apologise.

Also as a note - no I did not deliberately leave Portugal out of the manpower table. I misclicked a filter. apologies.

[michaelimbesi]

Thank you for pointing out that NATO membership is entirely voluntary. Too many people act as though a bunch of countries on Russia’s doorstep joined NATO because of so-called “Yankee Imperialism”. Those countries actually joined NATO because they have lots of prior experience with Russia and wanted to keep the Russians on the other side of the border:

[zee]

The fact that you're able to put out peak quality videos like this on a weekly basis is actually unreal.

[srelma]

As someone who has served in the Finnish army, I can confirm that the enemy always comes from the East in Finnish army training.

I served during the cold war and at that time Finland was politically neutral (and actually had a sort of a defensive pact with the USSR). So, since we were officially friends of the USSR the army couldn't officially train against an invasion by them. So, the enemy was called "A2 yellow" that referred to a "general mechanized superpower army" that was trying to conquer Finland.

So, in the training, the scenario was often some ridiculous one like "the enemy has made a landing on the narrow strip of land between the Soviet border and the first Finnish city on the coast (Hamina) and is trying to attack towards Helsinki". Of course no superpower would ever make such a landing, but formulating it like that allowed neutral Finland to train against a full scale Soviet invasion without actually calling it that.

[petersmythe]

The US military is like "is that thing nuclear?"
"Do you mean the power source or the armament? In either case, obviously yes."

[andrewgause]

"The spear has gone out of fashion on the modern battlefield."

I dunno. This conflict has shown that Javelins are still pretty prevalent...

[VinceLammas]

Being a subscriber for Perun's channel is like having a regular delivery of the finest chocolate cake on a silver platter and with golden cutlery. Obviously, the recipient needs to fully appreciate the ingredients and the artistry involved in the creation of each dish. For the right customer however, the stream of goodies arriving on the table is spectacular and hard to exaggerate.

[mischadebrouwer]

I worked on the PzH2000 development 20 years ago, and I remember from those days that Greece was one of the first customers, immediately followed by Turkey. And everybody in KMW knew that they pointed the guns at each other.

[williamromine]

This is an amazing channel. Out of a total subscribers of 276k, there were 200k views in about 14 hours! This goes to show the quality of the channel, but also the loyalty and quality of the subscribers. Finally, your subscribers don't seem to have an axe to grind. You, sir, have managed to fill a deep void in the coverage of this devistating war. Many heart felt thanks for all of your dedication and work.

[Slapdab]

One of my favorite things is that this creator focuses on important yet under examined aspects of the conflict. If I wanted to hear the same, five talking points bandied about, I would go to CNN. I want to actually learn something, and every time one of these comes out, I do.

[Tsuchimursu]

it's not the USA that coerced Finns to vote for joining NATO.
It was Russia that coerced Finns to finally move from cooperation to membership by invading Ukraine. Even though neither had their armies on our soil.

[stephenconroy]

Literally thought to myself today "Perun would never do a country-by-country breakdown", that would be too awesome, and lo and behold you're doing it! Looking forward to you scrutinising Britain's military industrial complex, logistical highs and lows, and what you'll make of the structure of the British Army in what I hope are very Australian-terms.

[Jose_Zuell]

As a Spaniard living abroad (with zero expertise in this topic), what my brain was screaming all the time and I think was not directly mentioned was: Language barrier!
Some countries might have high English level among their population, and after coordinated exercises, some soldiers might also be able to communicate in a foreign language.
But I doubt the majority of Spanish soldiers (and soldiers of many other countries) will be able to effectively communicate with their foreign counterparts.

[ThePussukka]

22:00 haha exactly this what you say here, in Finland they always say in the army that the enemy comes from the East, and if they come from the West it's a flanking maneuver.

[dritzzdarkwood]

"...or run 7 days to the river Rhine, like it's 1985"
- Historians snicker and appreciate the nuanced joke 🙂

[Strype]

"Italy may end up with jets capable of making tea..." Lol, that was great.

This was another superb analysis, Perun. Really appreciate all the research and effort you put into sharing these with us, my friend. They are extremely educational. I cannot thank you enough. Please, keep up the phenomenal work, good sir.

[nsierra]

Finest PowerPoints on earth. Honestly every video is so well done, you’d think it would be boring watching slides but it’s always 100% engaging.

[gabiplatis]

As a half Romanian half Greek I feel so proud seeing the difference between both of my nation's air forces. Especially the Romanian one, seeing the MiG-21 in all its glory still "fly" and "be operational" fills me with more patriotism than ever.



Please ignore how we have less than half of our original stock in working condition.

[kevak]

I served in a high readiness Signals Regiment in the UK during the late 80's. When a callout was issued (always middle of the fucking night) we had 3 hours to be ready to deploy, everything packed and ready for loading on trucks to be taken to airfields. We had between 2-3 callouts a year as tests. Theory being we could deploy to a conflict area within 24 hours.

[SaintJavelinOfficial]

You give the best PowerPoint presentations on earth. Much respect for the work you do.