Myanmar's Bleak Future: Civil War and Ethnic Strife || Peter Zeihan

Myanmar doesn't often catch my attention, but with the ongoing civil war, I figured it was time to throw it into the mix. After years of civil unrest, is there a clear path to stability?

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#myanmar #civilwar #politics

[michaelrichie]

As a expat living in Thailand, thank you for reporting on Burma. I employ many Burmese refugees and fear for their very lives.

[vimokkha]

Good for you, Peter, to cover Myanmar. So often things happen here that go unnoticed in the Western media.

[briano]

There's 3 things in the world you can count on in this life: The sun rising in the morning, the internet being toxic, and Peter mentioning the Rivers in whatever country he's talking about

[aarondemiri]

I studied Southeast Asia in university and always enjoyed it when this country was in the readings or the lectures. Sending my best wishes to the people of Myanmar.

[zstrizzel]

For a country of such low GDP per capita, I find the people of Myanmar are really civil, intelligent, hardworking, pleasure to be around. The history is deep. The land is beautiful and rich with resources. This country just seems so ready for rapid development, if it was not for the government issues!

[jhanna]

Scariest place I've ever been, got our Thailand visa renewed and got the hell back over that border. The way we were looked at still haunts me like "help us/ run"...

[fouracrefamily]

I spent much of the 1990s working with ethnic Karen on the Thai-Burma border. They are some of the best people I've ever known despite the hell the Burmese military have put them through. As a young guy at the time I was privileged to meet Gen. Bo Mya and spent a lot of time hanging out in Mannerplaw and the numerous camps along the Moei. Great memories.

[EdNashsMilitaryMatters]

"Kind of pricks" - A perfect description of the leaders that have cursed the country.

[plainjane-rbky]

I visited Burma a few years ago as a tourist. It's a beautiful country with wonderful, welcoming people.
I'm sorry to hear what's going on in Myanmar. I wish they could have peace. ☮ ☮ ☮ ✌✌✌

[patkelley]

The other element that Peter did not mention is religious conflict between Buddhists in the lowlands and Muslims in the mountainous areas. That is an almost impossible problem to solve, as both sides have drifted more extremist over time.

[ralfbaechle]

Good to see you cover Myanmar. I've traveled in Myanmar a few years ago. Not long before then the country had opened up after being very close to the outside. All in all things appeared to go well (footnotes apply ...) by that time.I found a country with big problems but also undergoing a rapid development and a population that seemed to understand things much better than one could expect in such a closed society.

[JohnButlerKFMDW]

I was in Yangon in January/February 2020, working mostly with people from Chin and Shan States. Part of the tensions, as they described it, go back to the push for independence from Britain -- the folks outside the core Irrawaddy areas wanted their own independence apart from the Burmese center; they were persuaded to join with the Burmese for the push for independence for all, with the understanding that once achieved, the out-lying states would then be able to go their own way. Except that when independence came about, they weren't allowed their own separate independence. Yes, your take on the Burmese attitude toward the non-Burmese is true.

[justingiossi]

I've worked with probably 100 refugees of the Haka Chin ethnicity and all of them call it Burma

[bettyhermsmeyer]

Truly a 'kingdom' - in the middle of a jungle - with a massive and historic river running through it. A land where the populace makes $3.60 a day. A land where the promise of a future (after 50 years of being shut out from the world) emerged - resulting in an excitement for the future across the land - only to be devastated by the military. Literally thousands of stunning ancient temples are spread across this land. I have been there twice . . . once right after the country opened - where people were hopeful across the land and just before the war broke out. The people were taking out loans for tuc-tucs (taxis) and starting little businesses and there was a flourish of excitement for the future. Families are serious about educating their children and providing resources for their families. Now . . . all gone.

[kicokyaw]

OMG! I am from Myanmar/Burmese and would like to proudly call myself Peter Zeihans biggest fan from Myanmar. Love Peter work but it could use some clarification. He is kinda accurate about the geography and synopsis of the ethnic strife but the civil war and nature of the ethnic strife is very much different in important details. The majority ethnic group 'the Bamar' is in charge of the center, but the way he talks about the war and state/government is somewhat inaccurate. The current 'hot' civil war started because a military coup de tat in February 2021 that overthrew the democratically elected and popular government (under who the ethnic strife reduced significantly) and established a junta/dictatorship purely for their own benefit and desire. The Burmese military (the Tatmadaw) ARE PRICKS and perhaps one of the most plainly malevolent forces to exist and treat both the Burma and ethnic populations horribly. Due to that, the military is near universally despised by everyone in Myanmar and they are entirely no longer representative of the Bamar ethnic majority people who hate them with a passion, its more accurate to view it as a military occupation which rely solely on violence and force to maintain power rather than a government. The war is divided between minority ethnic armed groups and allied pro democracy Bamar rebels, but the civil war is turning into a revolution that is significantly fostering unity between the Bamar and minority groups. One of the ideals of the revolutions is to foster ethnic equality and a federal system of equal governance. Currently the war is in a strategic sense of stalemate but the military is quickly losing ground and can only hold onto the core regions and facing internal dissent. Still a long way to go and Myanmar is turning into a horrible place to live which is why I fled the country in 2021, so Peter is right that the country is only going to get worse until the war ends one way or another and there is no end in sight.

[jayshen]

Thabk you for highlighting this forgetten crisis!

[chewdrag]

Not rebel groups . They are ethnic armies and Burmese resistance groups. They are trying to start a federal/independent state system instead of a centralized system.

[khanfauji]

I like that his videos don’t drag on for 20 minutes to make a point

[chopsticksandtrains]

Glad I got to travel to Myanmar during peace time. It is an amazing and beautiful country. Currently in China and always follow your work, Peter. Thanks for the daily updates.

[ToddSauve]

I can assure you Peter that civil war has been going in Burma/Myanmar for well over a century and probably much longer. I only know this because my church has members there among the Karen people and they have been fighting the government in Myanmar since I became aware of them back in 1983. That was 41 years ago and the place was really rockin' back then. Just doing a tiny bit of research has revealed this civil war has been non stop to one degree or another for eons now. Thankfully my church brethren are not compelled to carry arms into combat but are allowed to work in the medical and supply network of the Karen people.