What the Death of Iran's President Means for the Middle East and the World

On May 19, 2024, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's helicopter crashed during a return flight from Azerbaijan. Although it seems that all of the political power in Iran is concentrated in the Ayatollah, that is not quite right. The president has a fair bit of leeway, and the fact that an election will have to be held soon matters for regime security regardless. This video explores the deeper consequences of the accident and what might happen next in Iran.

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

Thanks to the Romanian National History Museum for the image of the Romanian Revolution.

By Hamed Saber
0:00 The Death of Iran's President *Does* Matter
0:23 Background: Why Ebrahim Raisi Went to Azerbaijan
1:41 Details of the Helicopter Crash
2:31 Concerns about Foul Play
3:56 A Manufactured Rally 'Round the Flag?
4:38 Sanctions and the West's Complicated Role
5:42 Why the Iranian President Is Not Powerless
6:10 Raisi as a Future Ayatollah
7:13 The Upcoming Special Election
7:59 Protest Concerns in Iran
8:39 The New Election as a Trial Balloon
10:22 Possible Changes to Iranian Policies
11:24 A Window of Opportunity for the West
12:31 Closing Thoughts

By Bundesarchiv:

By Mehr News Agency:

By Tasnim News Agency:

[skipperson]

The Iranian government was quick to say it was not sabotage, even before the crash was located.

[iodian]

The Iranian media said Raisi was "Martyred". I didn't know fog was capable of such a feat.

[videopostrrr]

i was talking with a Lloyds of London insurance underwriter once who described the game of insuring helicopters like this- 'there are those helicopters that have crashed, and those helicopters that are going to crash.'

[mohammadbahrampour]

I live in Iran, our national currancy loses value by any small inconvenience, but after this incident it didn't lose any value which tells me this dose not matter at all.

[Welgeldiguniekalias]

Our local Iranian community is literally dancing in the streets in celebration of Raisi's death, so I had already figured it must have some significance.

[ValensBellator]

Sanctions didn’t make that helicopter take off into near-zero visibility to fly through mountain ranges, the president did. That’s a weak attempt to blame the US 😂

[zimti]

It was really mean from the CIA and Mossad to sneak into Iran's mountains and place the fog there without saying hello first

[The_Greedy_Orphan]

Suppose you could say the president was blinded by "the fog of war".

[Edax_Royeaux]

They say it's America fault they couldn't get spare parts for their American Helicopter carrying the President. Is there any reason they couldn't have gotten a Russian or Chinese helicopter for their dear leader?

[rfcqbww]

You make very informational videos. Keep it up.

[rogerwilco]

i would not call this "bad piloting".
In many cases these accidents happen because of power dynamics, where the pilots are forced to fly in unsafe conditions by leaders, celebrities or billionaires.
Remember the plane with Polish leaders, or the one with Russian generals and admirals, or Cobe Briant, and many more such examples where the pilots were forced to fly in unsafe weather just because those in change don't accept no for an answer.

[jypr]

A well-tuned and perfectly operating piece of machinery will never overcome human incompetence.

[zscout]

The very well thought out video and I enjoy your points on this.

[PSKYNETBeats]

Really great and detailed video. answered most of my questions.

[gejyspa]

Amazingly quick turnaround for this informative video! Thanks, William!

[Illusion]

Blaming the United States for not selling replacement parts is the stupidest thinking I've ever heard. There were many ways he could've traveled, he and Iran chose the antiquated helicopter without replacement parts

[michaelogden]

So according to some dude, the US is responsible for the crash of a 25 year-old helicopter in foggy, mountainous terrain because replacement parts aren't readily available. Right.

[unkledanbot]

Thank you for making the video I wanted to see. Also, I like your lines on your map

[mihknsc]

president visiting a hydroelectric dam and dies from helicopter crash? that's some fallout newvegas plot right there

[hazardousmaterial]

Nobody is willing to dig enough to uncover the real truth - the crash was caused by a certain youtuber who wanted to create more content for the channel