When will this Russian Howitzer explode? (2A65 Msta-B Barrel life estimation from shell casings)

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Here is the math:

The shell casing box is:
830mm x 484mm x 270mm.

The Howitzer carriage trail is 2.15 meters.

The average height of a Russian man is 176 cm.

I estimated 1933mm on the boxes so ~2 meters.

I estimated 1.5 box lengths of the pile height, or roughly 1.5 meters.

I estimated the slope at 35 degrees using Coffee Beans as a substitute for shell casings.

When plugged into a triangle that gives a hypotenuse of 2.616 meters.

This means the surface area of the pile is 5.23 square meters.

If the casing width is 578mm x 152mm, then a 152mm shell casing takes up .089 square meters.

Divide 5.23square meters into .089 square meters and you get 58.

Add 10% to cover shells that have fallen over and you get ~64 shells.

Links:

Angle of repose:

Triangle Calculator:

Credits:

Original twitter video:

Images:
"Black is myfavorite!" by cbgrfx123 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

"Russ, Sayre & Minnie by a pile of coffee bean skins at La Azotea Estate, Antigua, Guatemala, Photo by Char" by ali eminov is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.

"Corn Harvest" by ConanTheLibrarian is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

"Sorted gravel pile from Pleistocene glacial outwash (St. Louisville gravel pits, Licking County, Ohio, USA) 31" by James St. John is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

"Dirt Pile" by jddunn is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

"suburban landscape (parking lot dirt pile)" by r.a. paterson is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

"Empty Casings" by The U.S. Army is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

[RyanMcBethProgramming]

Connect with me on Twitter:
@ryanmcbeth

Watch my long form videos:

Like the chest rig hanging up?
Get a Made in USA / Berry Act compliant chest rig or play carrier at:

I don’t have a Patreon account. If you want to give me money, give it to:
HelpIsOnTheWayUA.com
Or
WCK.com

Join the conversation:

Want to send me something?
Ryan McBeth Productions LLC
8705 Colesville Rd.
Suite 249
Silver Spring, MD 20910
USA

Here is the math:

The shell casing box is:
830mm x 484mm x 270mm.

The Howitzer carriage trail is 2.15 meters.

The average height of a Russian man is 176 cm.

I estimated 1933mm on the boxes so ~2 meters.

I estimated 1.5 box lengths of the pile height, or roughly 1.5 meters.

I estimated the slope at 35 degrees using Coffee Beans as a substitute for shell casings.

When plugged into a triangle that gives a hypotenuse of 2.616 meters.

This means the surface area of the pile is 5.23 square meters.

If the casing width is 578mm x 152mm, then a 152mm shell casing takes up .089 square meters.

Divide 5.23square meters into .089 square meters and you get 58.

Add 10% to cover shells that have fallen over and you get ~64 shells.

Links:

Angle of repose:




Triangle Calculator:

Credits:

Original twitter video:

Images:
"Black is myfavorite!" by cbgrfx123 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

"File:2A65 Msta-B howitzer (14-11-2019) 06.jpg" by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation is licensed under CC BY 4.0.

"File:2A65 Msta-B howitzer (24-10-2017) 03.jpg" by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation is licensed under CC BY 4.0.

"File:2A65 Msta-B howitzer (24-10-2017) 01.jpg" by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation is licensed under CC BY 4.0.

by Vitaly V. Kuzmin is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

"File:2A65 Msta-B howitzer (14-11-2019) 04.jpg" by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation is licensed under CC BY 4.0.

"Russ, Sayre & Minnie by a pile of coffee bean skins at La Azotea Estate, Antigua, Guatemala, Photo by Char" by ali eminov is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.

"Corn Harvest" by ConanTheLibrarian is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

"Sorted gravel pile from Pleistocene glacial outwash (St. Louisville gravel pits, Licking County, Ohio, USA) 31" by James St. John is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

"Dirt Pile" by jddunn is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

"suburban landscape (parking lot dirt pile)" by r.a. paterson is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

"Empty Casings" by The U.S. Army is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

[swaghauler]

The extractor breaking wouldn't stop the brass from ejecting. The back pressure from the shot combined with the recoil would pop the brass out (it would slide out the back). Either they are firing a very low-pressure loading (supporting your training hypothesis) OR the breach area is dangerously worn and the brass is "fireforming to the chamber." A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION for a gun.

[digidraxe]

As veteran artillery non commissioned and then commissioned officer with over 40 years of experience, I would like to add to a couple of earlier comments made by others. Barrel life for artillery is measured in Effective Full Charges (EFCs), which is unlikely to be the number of rounds that actually travel through any particular barrel. Most artillery systems use separated ammunition. The projectile and the shell casing that holds the propellant are, or can be, separated to allow the amount of propellant to be adjusted to allow you to target enemy at different ranges. In many systems, the propellant is loaded into the chamber without a casing, but in bags or round cloth packages. Each such package contains a specific and known amount of propellant and is called a charge. The number of charges used to propel one projectile to the maximum, or near maximum, range that can be obtained, is called an EFC. Progressively shorter ranges will require fewer and fewer charge bags, or less than an EFC. Barrel wear is less.

Professional Gunners, have long recorded each round fired, and the number of charge bags it required, in a log unique to each gun or howitzer. Depending on the make and model of the weapon system, each number of charge bags actually used to fire a round will have a value as a percentage of an EFC. As artillery systems are seldom used at their maximum ranges, the actual life span of a barrel may well be far greater than the manufacturer's stated barrel life. Once the barrel life is reached, the accuracy of the weapon degrades, as the lands and grooves of the rifling are eroded and the driving band on the projectile is less able to create a perfect seal and get the best effect from the propelling gases, resulting in less muzzle velocity.  

Most modern armies use muzzle velocity measuring systems, normally small radars that are attached to the gun and record how fast each round leaves the barrel. This measurement is much more accurate than calculating EFCs by a formula based on counting the number of rounds and charges in a log book. It is used to adjust the setting used to lay the gun to ensure its continued accuracy. I noticed that some of the M777s supplied to the Ukraine included the muzzle velocity, many of the huge number supplied by the United States did not. Finally, if a barrel explodes, it is unlikely to be the result of barrel wear. It is most likely to have been the result of a metallurgical anomaly in its manufacture, from damage caused by battle, or by misuse.

I enjoy your commentary and enthusiasm and encourage you to keep shooting. Ubique.

[markr]

I’ve never been so riveted by a pile of spent shell casings! You, sir, have a gift!!

[joesauer]

As an engineer I really appreciate your analysis of the number of shell casings. 😊

[ryanmcgowan]

I took a portion of the pile and counted 20, then took that area and duplicated it over the area of the pile keeping dimensions as shell size, and got about 100 casings. This eliminates parallax errors. Probably closer to 120 if you include casing spilled over the other side.

[ghjong]

The conclusion is interesting, but what makes this video great is the way Ryan shows us all the work every step of the way in making that estimate.

[greenwave]

1/4 the through your calculation, I counted the total number of visible shells, I factored in an estimated pile depth, subtracted the empty space and there are definitely over 120 shells there.

[clippo]

Love your videos Ryan, always demonstrate a sensible & informed approach to your content, whilst others concentrate on the progress I really enjoy your more technical knowledge 👍🏼👏

[bjornSE]

I counted 60 clearly visible shells and that was without trying much. That's only ~50% of one side. Assuming that everything not directly visible is dirt it's still over 100 shells and I think a reasonably conservative estimate is more along the line of 200-300.

[rostamr]

As an aerospace engineer, I enjoyed your analysis and how you made those assumptions. I subbed to your channel.

[bobjackson]

One thing to note, if it's a non combat line gun; Some guns in the collectors market especially howitzers or AT guns like a PaK, have the automatic ejector disabled but not broken to prolong the gun / brass life. Also when talking about artillery shells, barrel life is directly affected by charge strength.

[mrsfireleg]

A lot of thought and planning went into is this video. Thank you very much for your effort. It is well appreciated by myself and many others.

[ztoob]

0:39 Hand up if you heard "toad" when Ryan said "towed."
(Not my finest hour.)
Edit: I just figured out why I heard it as "toad." It's because "Frogger." The NATO designation for the MiG-23 is the Frogger, so I heard "toad" instead of "towed."
That's my story and I'm sticking to it. And thanks to Ryan for another great, informative video!

[nwsome]

Broken weapons are widespread in Russian army and there's usually not enough protective gear for every soldier. The guy is probably just unlucky

[justingould]

Awesome video as always.
I love how you explain what is being shown. Keep up the great work.

[dukeboy-]

That only takes into account the height, width, and angle but leaves out the length of the pile. That is just a slice of the pile. Way more than 64 in that pile.

[pwkpwkpwk]

when the barrel reaches its life, it doesn't mean that it shall explode, only that the tables used to calculate the firing solution aren't useful anymore; the gun can keep firing. though I must say that the only gun that I'd studied was the s-60 AA gun and it's been 35 years since I did

[billyantis]

You, sir, are a relentless source of fascinating information to this 80 year-old former 8:01 infantry soldier. You must have been a joy for your CO and a great source of help to your troopies.

[jdam]

You are brilliant and this was one of the most entertain things I have watch in YouTube ever!
Thanks man, cheers from Costa Rica!