COVID risk factors and implications

COVID-19 risk assessment tool

Work-based risk assessment

Model does not incorporate other external factors

High-risk household members

Those at higher risk of mental health issues

Pregnancy

There is currently insufficient data to make any meaningful assessment about the risk of COVID-19 to either the mother or the unborn child

Indeed the pandemic is not yet 9 months old

Until more information is available, we would recommend all people who are pregnant be regarded as high risk and offered the option to shield

Low Risk less than 3

Medium Risk 3-5

High Risk equal to or more than 6

Age

less than 50 1

more than 60 2

more than 70 4

more than 80 6

Sex at Birth

Female 0

Male 1

Ethnicity

Caucasian 0

Black African descent 2

Indian Asian descent 1

Filipino descent 1

Other (including Mixed race) 1

Diabetes

(Type 1 or Type 2) 1

(Type 1 or Type 2) 2
(Complicated diabetes = presence of microvascular complications or HbA1c≥64mmol/mol)
Obesity

BMI≥35kg/m2 1

Cardiovascular disease

Angina, previous MI, stroke
or cardiac intervention 1

Heart failure 2

Pulmonary disease

Asthma 1

Non-Asthma chronic pulmonary 2

Either above requiring oral corticosteroids in previous year 1

Malignant neoplasm

Active malignancy 3

Malignancy in remission 1

Rheumatological conditions

Active treated conditions 2

Immunosuppressant therapy

Any indication 2

More on comorbidities

European CDC (weeks 42, ending 18th October)

Sustained increase in cases over 2 weeks in 28 countries

At least 60 per 100 000

Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the UK

Sustained increase over 2 weeks in 16 countries in over 65s

At least 60 per 100 000

Austria, Czechia, Denmark, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden

Weekly test positivity, at least 3% or had increased against the previous week, 19 countries

Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden

Vaccine, early months of next year, Matt Hancock

Oxford, AstraZeneca, AZD1222

30 million doses under UK manufacture

Roll-out first half of 2021

Some people vaccinated 2020

Immune response similar across all age groups

Strong immune response in elderly

Encouraging to see immunogenicity responses were similar between older and younger adults (AZ)

Lower levels of side-effects in older adults

Elderly usually have a reduced immune response (e.g. influenza vaccine)

Antibodies and T-cells

Brazil, India, South Africa, UK, US

Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency

Food and Drug Administration

[rob_lightbody]

John,

You don't know it, but you've been with my family and I throughout the pandemic and have been a guiding light through some scary times.

Thank you .

Rob

[angeldc]

Dr. John I'm positive that you have saved many lives with your courage, effort and dedication. But just as you say, if there is one life saved that makes all your work well worth it.
Please keep your high spirits, we really need you.

[cornishdiaspora]

I can only speak for me. You have single handed made me so much better informed about the risks and the mitigations. I'm male and 62. Score of 3 like you. Now a vitamin D taker too. Honestly, keep it up mate: you're keeping us sane and protected. PS I get upset too.

[carolinepagett]

Two days ago I saw a lady I see from time to time & shouted “HI are you ok..?” Her reply was horrifying “No my daughter died of COVID” I can’t even give her a hug.... terrible x

[sofias]

Dr John I cannot stress enough, how many people you have helped around the world -by .providing daily updates, information, a whole lot of
good advise and a sence of humanity. You care about the well being of people. That's why you, Dr John, and your channel is so important. We see the reseach/analyst side of you, the humane side of you.
I cannot thank you enough 🙏 :)!!

[charmedjthreeisme]

I have been watching you long before Covid, as I found your videos extremely informative! Now with almost a year covering this Covid... I can see it is taking an emotional toll on you!!! Please take care of yourself and while we count on your updates as a trusted source of info... take a day or two to charge yourself too ... please! Thank you so much for being here for ALL of us!!!’ Sending much love to you !!

[majdiarmouti]

Thank you Dr for bringing positivity and common sense into our frightened minds

[BarbzSA]

thanks John. I'm always touched by your humanity.

[johnbillings]

You've saved more than one person already I am sure. I tell all those around me about the latest science on covid to give them the edge over the virus and I'm certain I'm not alone. You have single-handedly done more to combat this pandemic than many world leaders have.

[SueProst]

John, I watched the video. Please take care of yourself. If doing these videos is affecti g you too much please evaluate the situation. You are a good man and we don't want it to take a huge toll on you.

[davidstrong]

Wow what a voice of reason. "to make modifications for one winter to give you many more years after" is a thought worth considering. Thank you Dr. John. Cheers.

[susantomes]

Dear Dr John, you are the calm voice of reason. Thank you for all you are doing to keep us informed.
To say I am grateful, would be an understatement.

[belindamartinez]

Dear Dr. Campbell, I noticed how you were fighting back tears at the end of the video. Many thanks for keeping us informed so well.

[rivercity]

Lost my grandfather yesterday to covid. He was 84 and a decorated Air Force veteran. He had no pre-existing conditions as he stuck to a mostly plant based diet and still exercised daily. Very fit. His doctor said he had another 10 years in him at least. This virus is relentless, wish he would have had a shot at the vaccine. Would loved to have heard another war story, and could have said goodbye to him in person with his family there.

[asahk]

This is the first time ever that getting a 0 has made me happy.

[dianafinley]

John, we are so grateful to you. I felt I needed to express that after you had me teary-eyed at the end... take care.

[le_th_]

Thank you, as always, Dr. Campbell. We are all so grateful to you for your time and analysis of the preliminary data, and for putting it all together for the public. Please stay healthy and remember to take care of yourself, as well~

[manuelbunheiro]

Thank you Dr. Campbell, for the remarkable work you're doing, delivering very useful information and knowledge . Here in Portugal, I always rely on your videos to be informed.

[raduarmadamusic]

God bless! Mr. Campbell. May we all see each other online next year this time!

[jenniferbate]

John, you’re such a very very special person. Thank you again x