What if Japan Never Attacked Pearl Harbor? - Historian Reacts

Links:

Special Thanks to the following who are the official sponsors of this channel:

Executive Producers - John Lindley, James Book, Yani Tomov, and Dennis Donehoo

Tier 6 - Christian Graves, Elijah Norrick, Han Pol, John Molden, Levi Stevenson, Ziv, Fernando Alonzo, Charles Glawe, Tiberiu Timo, Jason Dugan,

Tier 5 - Edward Guest, Austin Powell, D-Rock, Grant Nystrom, Drunk Binary, J.E. Sandoval, John Ivester, Kieran Francke, Scott Ferguson

YT Sponsors: Insane, Scar 22, Griffen, that one guy, Driftiest follower

Tier 4 - Adam Telladira, Anthony DeFedele, Charles Grist, Derek Wohl, Graham Brown, Kelly Moneymaker, Kryštof Kotásek, Odins_Martyr, Samuel Enns, Shoulder Devil, Sándor Nagy, Scott Miller, Scripted Samurai, Jake Murphy, Rodrigo Fernandez, Sebastian Diaz, John Kennedy

Tier 3 - Rafal Dubas, Matthew Calderwood, Kyle Hosea, Brandon Grams, Qethsegol, Robin Svensson, Austin White, Chris Curtis, John Molden, Peter Gadja, Raoul Kunz, Typhon, SGTMcAllen, David Storey, Cabo, Sephiroth94, Mikael Elevant, Andreas Christensen, Nate Dogg, Mathew Schrader, Nash Zahm, Jared Mackowski, Logan Cale, Stefan Garza, Zyndel Payne, Bran Flakes, Trunks, Brently Roberson, not me, Leo Strato, James Guyett, Michael Wisebaker, ZJ Johnson, Charles Schwab, WarHistoryBuffz, Wes Wilkins, The Real Larson, Samuel Elliott, J.L.Tillaeo, Joel Gilmore, Dr. Chemical, Steve Hollenczer Jr, Leon Kennedy, Daniel Hampton,
Mohammed Elzain, Sebastian Bergmayr, Maximus Todaro, Ewan May, Bernium 420

#History #WW2

[danielsmith]

I am not normally an alternate history kind of guy, but I agree with your assessment. Making theories about alternate history helps us to better understand the events surrounding the event.

[RayearthIX]

The Soviet Navy was one of the weakest navies in the entire war. They might build it up over time after defeating Germany, but it would be slow going and they wouldn’t be able so easily cross the sea.

[idm]

They would have definitely have gone to war with the Soviets, because there was a faction in the Japanese gov that wanted war with the Soviets but they fell out of favor in favor of a faction that wanted to go south and take the "southern resource area". Thus, eliminate the main competitor there, the U.S.

[andrewvoth]

This is a channel that I'm very glad to have found. Always educational and always entertaining.

[ET_Bermuda]

I can't shake the feeling that by the time the Soviets hypothetically invade Japan, that the US would've still sat by at this point. I know this scenario is supposed to exclude the US, but I think Congress would've been shaken up by the Soviets taking over so much land mass. I'm very strongly inclined to think the US would've found an excuse to invade Japan b4 the Soviets could.

[unreal]

The naval side of this scenario is interesting to consider. The Soviet Navy is going to face serious issues when trying to invade Japan. Historically, by 1945 the Soviet’s had lost 98 of its 218 submarines, and 29 of its 59 destroyers. However they did not lose any heavy surface units, 6 heavy cruisers and 4 battleships (I added the Soviet casualties because they should occur regardless of US involvement). This does not leave them many units to fight the Japanese with. If we are assuming that the USA does not get involved I do not see the IJN taking many losses until the end of the war. With the loss of British force Z and the later losses due to the Indian Ocean raid, the Royal Navy would not come back to the South West Pacific until they can free up resources from the Mediterranean and Atlantic theaters. The IJN would have no one to fight, giving them time to save fuel, and resources. I do not see the Navy General Staff giving many or any ships to help the other Axis forces. Which should leave a fairly intact Navy to face the Soviets for an invasion.

Assuming no Japanese casualties the Soviets could be facing: 30 Aircraft Carriers of various sizes (they may or may not have planes and pilots left on them at this point if given to land campaigns), 12 battleships, 26 Heavy Cruisers, 26 light cruisers, around 150 destroyers, 178 submarines. Again these numbers are all questionable but even if Japan lost half of these units they would still be able to win in their home waters.

Even on a ship per ship basis the Japanese have the edge on the equivalent soviet ships. If the Soviets do get a chance to invade they would still have to execute it via amphibious assault. They lack the experience or machinery to pull it off. If the Royal Navy were to help the Soviets this would at least give them the ability to possibly defeat the IJN but I won't continue since this is already too long for a YouTube comment.

[amalgam]

The Japanese DID invade the USSR in real life. During the 1930s-40s, there were two strategic factions duking it out in the Japanese high command, the Strike North faction (Hokushin-ron) (championed by the Army) who pushed to focus the war effort on Siberia and China, and the Strike South faction (Nanshin-ron) (championed by the Navy) who wanted to focus on China and SE Asia. The Strike North faction orchestrated increasingly violent border clashes in 1938, culminating in the series of battles at Khalkhin Gol in Mongolia from May to September 1939, where the Red Army under Zhukov decisively defeated the Kwangtung Army. The Strike North generals begged the Emperor for another campaign to save their face, but the loss was the straw that broke the camel's back, and the Emperor rejected them and sided with the Strike South group, and the Pacific War, for the remainder of WWII.

But without the Western Embargo, there was no pressing need for Japan to invade the Pacific regions at all -- after all they were already getting as much oil and chemicals from the US, oil and rubber from Dutch Indonesia, and steel and grain from Australia, as they could buy. Which means the driving strategic calculus underlying the Strike South faction's arguments was gone, making the likelihood of the Japanese military going all-in in Siberia, especially after Barbarossa, much higher. I don't see this Alt-Hist scenario as implausible at all

[letsgotothemax]

Speaking of Pearl Harbor, my grandfather was just a boy at the time of the attack. He and a friend climbed a tree and could see Pearl smoking and on fire, including the Arizona exploding. He also remembers seeing a Japanese A6M flying so low he could see the suns on the wings and the pilot in the cockpit.

Edit: the high school I went to, McKinley High (VTH ik you'd be proud) was strafed by a couple of Japanese planes because they mistook it for the Hawaiian capitol

[TakkudALT]

Hi! I was a part of the Pearl Harbor parade! I was part of JROTC Unit HI-931! I was amazingly fun. You should see it in person one day! Also, the base drum is very heavy lol. Idk how parade people do it

[sarky]

As somebody who does not delve into WW2 content much (And has not finished this video) I instantly see your helping on the subject, as always I am grateful to have you as a channel.

[joshuawells]

Thinking about the Imperial Japanese Navy without Pearl Harbor and by extension without the Battle of Midway, the Japanese would still have 10 aircraft carriers, while the Soviets did not have any at all, not seeing the importance of them until the Cold War. Also, historically, the Japanese Navy has a history of kicking Russian naval butt.

[TheSmileMile]

I think at this time, Japan had the third largest navy in the world IIRC, and the Soviets didn't even possess 1 aircraft carrier. I think Cody is ignoring the fact that an invasion of Japan was only plausible in our timeline because the American navy had battered the IJN, it's possible that the Soviets might have kicked them off the mainland. Though I feel like people just assume that the soviets can absorb endless casualties forever in these alternate scenarios, i could honestly see the USSR being taken to the brink.

[brandonarmienti]

I disagree with this video of alternatehistory. With no Pearl Harbor attack and no oil embargo and with Japan attcking the Soviet Union and forcing the Soviets to fight a two front war, WW2 would have ended in a stalemate at best. If the Soviets were to win it wouldn't be until the late 1940s or early 1950s. I wouldn't be surprised if the Soviets lose half of it's population in this scenario.
Also the Soviets would never have successfully invade Japan. The Soviet Union was a major land military power but never a naval power. The Japanese navy was considered one of the most powerful in the world at the time. So if the Soviets attempt to invade Japan it would be a major naval disaster. With the Soviet fleet being destroyed or the Soviet troops being bogged down at the beach heads being slaughtered. I just don't see this ending favorably for the Soviets.

[tomashidalgo]

I don’t agree with the soviets winning the war if the Japanese invaded and the US never joined the war. Reason? The Siberian reserves and all others located on Siberia wouldn’t be able to help in the Eastern front, and that the Germans would be able to focus more on the soviets without other distractions. Let’s just say that those troops really had an impact on the Eastern front by reinforcing the lines once winter arrived and defending key points like Moscow. Without those it is possible that the war would have gone the other way around. Also, not American involment means not African nor Italian nor French fronts for the Germans. This means that all those troops send to those war zones can be sent instead to the Eastern front.

Summary, less fresh experienced troops in the Eastern front and less support from the allies WHILE having to fight a larger enemy that, by the way, is not suffering from intense bombing raids and has his full industry intact means that the soviets might not be able to win this one.

So yeah, American involvement in the war was more impactful that some might think.

[steveclarke]

It's been discussed many times, the oil embargo forced the Japan to look to take the "Dutch East Indies" (now Indonesia) which was a major oil production site ( Royal Dutch Shell ) in the 1930s. The problem for Japan was the American territory of the Philippines being on the direct line on the line of advance, which could cut the supply line to this new conquest- if the US were to declare war on Japan first. Japan therefore extended that plan to invade the Philippines and destroy the US pacific Fleet.

Had the Japanese just gone after the East Indies and trusted to US isolation policy to not intervene then I could see the events laid out unlikely but possible without war with the US.

[hiderz]

You made a great point about how looking at history from a different perspective allows us to analyse specific events better and it's something I think we need to do more to really understand why those decisions occurred in the first place

[michaelgreico]

You should really check out this channel's take on the alternate 1912 election. It's really good and has lots of Woodrow Wilson bashing.

[powwowken]

As much as I like Alternate History Hub this one gets a little too out there for me.
I just can't imagine a world where Japan prioritizes attacking Siberia of all places over China, Indonesia and Australia... Also assuming that Russia could defeat Japans Navy to the extent it would allow them to invade the main Islands within any reasonable time frame feels sketchy at best.

[christopherr.]

The biggest parts I dont agree with is I believe the US does follow through on the embargo and I do NOT think the Soviets could contain or eliminate the Navy of Japan enough to invade it via the water. The rest seems pretty reasonable or atleast not crazy.

[The_Horse-leafs_Cabbage]

As a story writer, I've come to appreciate the difficulty of world building, especially when alternate history is involved.
Whether it's just alt hist. or a blend with fantasy fiction... Choosing any point of divergence requires some history homework to be done.
The medieval and Renaissance eras are pretty tricky areas to diverge from, as any major change could affect the existence of languages as we know them (especially the complicated history of the English language).
Diverging from the normal course towards Pearl Harbor... Diverging from any of the multiple points that led to WWI and WWII... Makes you appreciate just how much of a colossal machine domestic and international relations and politics can be.... And how hard it is to stop, once the train towards desolation leaves the station.