Is now the best time for China to invade Taiwan?

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This video asks the question: Is now a good moment for China to try to take Taiwan, given US focus on Ukraine and Russia, as well as the Middle east?
From China’s perspective, if it wanted to invade Taiwan, would now be the best time for China to try to invade Taiwan? Would the US be too distracted now? This video will try to answer that.

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[Binkov]

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[J_X]

China won't invade Taiwan whilst importing all their oil through the Malacca Strait.

There's a reason why China is expanding so massively in green energy and EVs.

Oil imports into China are expected to decline, meaning China's energy dependency will not be as severe.

The US shouldn't listen to all the "China is declining" hawks and should continue preparing for a China which is more self reliant.

[lpznuxx]

China's military hasn't been tested in decades. For this reason even with all the additional military spending, we have no idea how they will perform.

[bmunson]

‘…China has no plans to invade…’

Isn’t that what Putin was telling Macron, and other western leaders about Ukraine up to the day before?

[louisquatorze]

Japan as an ally will be a difference maker, and having Philippine bases is a huge plus. The US wont be out there alone.

[nightfeather]

the copium in these comments gives me life

[louiscypher]

This is the worst time to invade.

1: It's election season in the US the president cannot afford to look weak in front of a domestic audience.
2: Europe and NATO will be judged harshly by the US public if they don't come at china hard.
3: SEA politics would see a political shift if the US didn't come at china hard.
4: If the US cannot provide a clear swift victory more support for isolationism will ramp up.

Biden basically has no choice but to respond with direct military intervention and major European powers would have to be perceived as joining in. The risks of not doing so risk a dramatic shift in the political relationship of the US has not just with China but all Pacific and EU nations.

[phatwayne]

Using Chinese GDP as a basis for any analysis is problematic to say the least.

[emanuelb]

It's not a good time. They need to sell the US Treasury bonds first.

[Hati]

West Taiwan and its ruling Pooh need to chill out.

[Castapher]

There's a lot of news regarding China's economy dwindling, and political issues (backstabbing between CCP members) that makes it harder and harder for Xi to start a war against Taiwan.

[Professor-of-Gaming]

The amount of chinese bots here is downright hilarious

[NoahNobody]

1. China needs the US.
2. The sea is too rough at the moment. The only realistic windows are in April and October.

[kurtwicklund]

China cannot afford to continue these trends for long in light of their economic issues.

Through history there are many examples of major land powers trying to also out-navy their maritime rival. They usually break under the cost and that expensive navy ends up in port or on the bottom forever. Have at it PRC.

[TheEverFreeKing]

I'm going to visit Taiwan in May of next year, wish me luck they don't invade at the same 🥶

[Intranetusa]

Whether mainland China will attempt an invasion likely heavily depends on how the USA, Western Europe, other NATO nations, Japan, and other democratic nations treat the Ukraine conflict. If they see that the USA and other countries will get tired of supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion and stop supporting Ukraine, then China will be more likely to invade Taiwan because they will realize they can simply "outlast" Western support.

[NWA-TjalfeTooStonedToAim]

Narrator: Russia probably wont escalate the conflict..
Narrator: Iran probably wont escalate the conflict..
Random historical madman: Hold my beer..

[sgt.grinch]

I disagree with your speculation. China cannot afford the invasion and does not have the Military expertise and experience to pull off the invasion. A minimum of 9 hours are required to ferry the troops to the beaches. Good luck with that.

[Fix_Bayonets]

The wild card Herr that no one talks about is Korea. The US had extensive based there to nominally defend South Korea. Much of the part and air bade infrastructure will be pressed into service to support Taiwan. In which case China would highly encourage North Korea to also attack.

[hardware]

With Russia being outed as a "paper bear" and its military in shambles this is very much the worst time for them to invade. It would be very much them vs the world