Taiwan's Strategy to Counter Chinese Invasion

China and Taiwan have been having issues for years. With tensions getting worse recently, and the world looking like it might be heading towards World War III, it's natural to wonder what would go down if China decided to fully invade Taiwan.

On the surface, China seems to have the upper hand with its stronger military and economy. But, you know, as Mike Tyson once said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

So, here's the real question: Could China actually take over Taiwan through military force?

Watch this video to see what our military experts had to say and don’t forget to like, comment & subscribe to The Military Show for more great military content.

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[TheMilitaryShow]

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[hko]

May Taiwan be peaceful and prosperous in these uncertain times.

[teedtad]

Tibet should be independent like Taiwan! God bless Taiwan and Tibet! ... ♾️💟💟♾️

[rayfleming]

China's top 4 trading partners are the US, S. Korea, Japan, and Taiwan with US allies at 7, 8, 15, 17, 18, 20 and 21. The Philippines is at 19 with Vietnam-6, Malaysia-9, Indonesia-12, Thailand-14, and Singapore-16. Thus China's international trade would end.

Oil and food shortages would start within the first couple months possibly leading to the worst famine in world history.

[jadek]

I just returned from living in China for the past 6 years. Happy to be home. I can assure you that the economy is much worse than is being reported. I don’t believe any of the GDP numbers coming out of China. I walked through Pudong airport on more than one occasion during and after the pandemic restrictions. It was an absolute ghost town for 3 years. I had to take video just to believe it. It wasn’t much better after restrictions were lifted.

[KforMVP]

You hear that??? That’s a bunch of Chinese wolf warrior trolls heads exploding as they watch this. 😂

[raininthesouth]

As a Taiwanese American, let me shed some light on the Chinese mindset. China, given the option, would never attempt to invade Taiwan in the traditional sense (unless forced to take this measure). China's real intent is to send large number of Chinese immigrants to the island through signing of something like ECFA (Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement) with Taiwan. ECFA has already been signed by pro-China KMT president Ma in 2010 and passed but with certain restrictions in Taiwan. ECFA is really just a Trojan horse agreement that uses the pretext of business / trade to allow large number of Chinese immigrants to relocate and settle permanently in Taiwan. The Chinese have already done so in HK, Tibet, with Xinjiang. Once on the island, the Chinese will start by silencing and oppressing political dissidents, wipe out the local language / way of life, dominate political sphere, control local businesses, bypass / change local laws and use CCP law enforcement with local mafia to silence any dissent. Over time inhospitable policy towards Taiwanese will drive out the local population making room to settle more Chinese on the island. There you have it. That's China's real strategy in winning the war against Taiwan. This tactic has been successfully executed countless times in history with success by not just CCP but also pro-CCP KMT government in Taiwan. If I were Taiwanese government I would focus on keeping the Chinese out of Taiwan. Americans should probably also be securing their borders because that's where the real war is taking place and the price will be paid decades down the road.

[elricofarmer]

I've never seen an analysis that covered so much ground.
This really does a great job of hitting all the key elements in details I've never seen before!

[Warpcaller]

If you look at the geography alone Taiwan is technically Afghanistan with an 80 mile moat around it, just getting there would see catastrophic losses on the Chinese side and once they land it would be a bloody slog. Plus you have to take into account that the other countries in the region are not exactly friends with China, so the US can rely on support from Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam and so on as each would see it as an opportunity to cripple Chinese military and resolve the ongoing territorial disputes they have

[notsharingwithyoutube]

Taiwan is already an independent country.

[Tom-mgr]

I reckon after all this crap Taiwan should be recognised as a total independent country. The UN ought to try doing something useful for a change

[Gubers]

I highly doubt there would ever be a military invasion. There’s several reasons why.

A military invasion would be very unpopular with a lot of Chinese mainlanders. It would also create a state of extreme tension at the very least with every Western nation. At the worst it would draw the U.S. and probably many other Western nations into the war. But even if it didn’t come to that, the sanctions and other business ramifications would be epic levels of devastating for the Chinese economy and CCP control would begin to fail. China is fantastically reliant on foreign markets to maintain its upward economic mobility. If that came crashing to a halt, the economy would collapse and unrest would almost certainly take over. The CCP can only maintain its power if things are going well. If they invaded Taiwan, things would not be going well at all.

The other issue is military competence. China may look scary on paper, but so did Russia. Russia has a far more impressive history of military industry than China and yet their military failed spectacularly and appears to be incapable of much more than a prolonged war of attrition vs Ukraine. Why? Corruption, incompetence and poor leadership. Why is this relevant? Because China isn’t far off from Russia in that regard. Chinese generals have zero combat experience. Most military leaders with power didn’t get there with merit and accomplishments, they got their jobs through loyalty to the CCP. We have no reason to believe Chinese generals are any more competent than Russian generals. In fact they probably are worse. Tack on the lack of military industrial history, inferior copycat designs and untested doctrine and you have yourself a scary military on paper but in practice an actual novice. Tell me, how is a novice going to pull off invading an island fortress?

Sure, China could just bombard Taiwan to death. But what then is the point of invading in the first place? All of that infrastructure, all of the highly valuable high tech companies would be obliterated. And for what? A symbolic victory? CCP China wouldn’t benefit from taking the Island at all. It would be an international blunder with no benefit. So their only option would be an amphibious assault. Orchestrated by admirals and generals with virtually zero experience against an Island armed to the teeth with reliable Western weapons systems. Sorry, but that just isn’t happening. If it did, it would be an epic failure IMO that would do nothing but lead to the demise of the CCP.

So what can China do? What it’s doing already. Influence. They don’t even need to invade Taiwan. All they need to do is meddle in their affairs just like they’ve done in the U.S. and Australia. Except with Taiwan, all they need is a pro-China election victory. Once they have their foot in the door, China will simply take over politics and force a unification. This is by far the preferred method. It will keep intact most of Taiwans industry and be radically more popular than a military invasion. It will prevent outsiders from having any say in the matter because nobody is going to seriously challenge a political takeover. Nobody else will have any say whatsoever unlike with a military invasion.

The CCP is too fragile to survive the economic and social turmoil of an invasion. Their military is questionable to pull it off. And their desired goal to take over Taiwanese industry would be impossible. The political meddling victory is radically more desirable and I think that’s exactly what they are going to do.

[alpha]

This answered a lot of questions I've had for some time and was very interesting, well done.

[nieljosephpalca]

Taiwan is geographically surrounded by waters therefore it would be better for Taiwan to reinforce their navy with subsurface assets, preferably a combination of standard submarines, midget submarines and UUVs. Simply in that manner, Taiwan's navy can deter or repel any amphibious operations. Furthermore, subsurface assets doesn't need air cover which makes them much more survivable than surface assets.

[djchinot]

China is going to f around and find out lol

[Godlage]

Biden did actually directly say it. He answered yes. So it's not theoretical.

[resolvedwhite]

In World War 2 the USA wanted to invade Japan held Taiwan. The USA knew if we landed an invasion force, a few Japanese could destroy the USA. USA could only land on a few beaches and the Japanese could destroy the Americans from the hills and mountains next to the beaches and America said forget it, it is far too risky. Chine today has the same problem. Taiwan has a reserve arm of 1.3 million. That is about the number of Chinese invading. Today Chinese men (not married and no children) illegally cross into our border (USA), these could be Chinese military preparing to wage war in the near future waiting for ships from China.

[juannlja]

If Taiwan ever becomes independent some time in the future, it would have been because United States helps them. Without help from United States, Taiwan will not likely be independent. United States will be a big deciding factor on whether Taiwan ultimately becomes fully independent.

[bigglesharrumpher]

I feel Taiwan is just a step too far in China's view at the moment. It is just too vulnerable to trade disruptions and all the combat variables.

[nicklindberg]

Xinny the Pooh isn't going to be a fan of this one