The Taiwan Trap

And how the US wants to fix it.

China and Taiwan are preparing for war. China’s leader, Xi Jin Ping, has overseen one of the most dramatic military build-ups in history and has ordered his military to be ready to invade by 2027. Meanwhile, many believe Taiwan is not ready, including the United States. After decades of selling Taiwan some of its best weapons, the US government is now urgently pressuring Taiwan to change its strategy. This video explains what’s wrong with Taiwan’s plan to fend off a Chinese invasion and how the United States wants to fix it.

Welcome to Search Party!
Search Party is a new, independent, video news show that combines experienced journalism and visual design to decode the most complex stories in international sports and geopolitics.

About:
Search Party is led and produced by Sam Ellis, a journalist, director, editor, and animator based in New York City. For more than 6 years, Ellis produced the hugely popular video series, Vox Atlas, for which he earned an Emmy nomination. He specializes in breaking down the most complex new stories and presenting them with a refreshing, accessible, and engaging visual style.

He’s produced explainers on some of the world’s thorniest geopolitical stories; from corruption scandals in Latin America, conflict in the Middle East, and the rise of China, to the world of sports; the Monaco Grand Prix, the FIFA corruption scandal, and the 100-foot waves of Nazaré, Portugal. Ellis has also directed multiple episodes of TV; notably on Netflix’s ‘Explained’ and HBO Sport’s ‘Level Playing Field’.

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[WilliamFang]

The downside for Taiwan of the porcupine strategy is the cheaper missiles only work in close ranges. For example the Javelin is good for about 2.5 KM (public info). This means mainland forces have already landed on Taiwan or are about to. I would think Taiwan doesn't want the mainland forces to ever get that close. The US may wish Taiwan would drag mainland forces into urban warfare. But nobody in their right mind wants an urban warfare in their own home town.

[johnchiu]

Awesome video. As a Taiwanese person, I hope that some day soon, the world can see Taiwan as the wonderful place that it is, instead of just an anti-China talking point. In the mean time, thank you for shining a light on us!

[BlocksandBoroughs]

The vox to independent YouTuber/journalist pipeline is producing amazing work, very inspiring!

[MKC]

There's a lot more behind what weapons the US has sold and has not sold to Taiwan - your video paints a picture that US in the past has sold Taiwan most the advanced weaponry it requested, but that is simply not the case. In fact, US-to-Taiwan arms export track record is unique in many aspects due to the Taiwan Relations Act and this could have been explored more in this video.
Few examples: M60A3 MBTs sold during the 80s and 90s were considered to be the last of its long lineage; the F-16s procured around the same time were old A/B variants; and Taiwan is most likely never going to be able to procure F-35s and will likely have to settle for the F-16Vs.

[carmoon]

Graphics are great in these videos, well done Sam!

[richmondlorejo]

I kept seeing how China will invade Taiwan and never how can Taiwan defend it's borders. So, its a nice thing to see another perspective in this issue<3

[LipiokTan]

Taiwanese here. Thanks for covering this.

[HannibalBarca]

This is amazing, please make more videos like this like about Taiwan, keep this amazing work!

[DavidWoods]

I've missed your work Sam - so glad you're back. You and Atlas were always the very finest content that Vox ever produced. I'll never miss an upload.

[eddieiing]

The Republic of China wasn't set up in 1949 after the Nationalists arrived in Taiwan.

PRC was established in 1949.

The Republic of China was established in 1912 with the 1911 Revolution (10/10/1911) led by Sun Yat-Sen, the first provisional president of the ROC and eternal Nationalist leader. The ROC (Taiwan) still celebrates October 10th as National Day.

PRC observes October 10th as Xinhai Revolution anniversary but doesn't celebrate it as a public holiday. Just as a "historical event".

[rsiow]

The porcupine strategy sounds like an extension of the US' non-committal strategy. After watching this video, I am 100% certain Taiwan is on it's own and it would serve it's interests not to export the cutting edge of their semiconductor manufacturing to stay relevant and important enough to warrant intervention.

[smurf]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, without such warmongering narrative, from where should the US arms dealers earn money?

[damonhawkes]

Great video, I have a nitpick which is you referred to battleships multiple times. A cursory research into modern navies would show, battleships became irrelevant in world war 2. You may be using the term in place of the more general “warships”, which nowadays is mostly destroyers and aircraft carriers. There is no such thing as a “modern battleship”.

[nocheapdopamine]

I have a Taiwanese friend who was exempt from mandatory military service because of an injury. Now that tensions have built up over the past couple of years, they downgraded his injury to nullify the exemption. Now he’s fighting to not have to join and stay in the US. I really hope he doesn’t have to fight China😢

[leoh]

As Taiwanese former military soldiers.
This video it’s really useful by offering the US viewpoint on weapons purchases.

[shanewalker]

The battleship graphics are so good! Give your editors a raise

[randallheather]

Everyone seems to forget that Japan, with one of the largest modern navies in the world, has committed to supporting Taiwan and they don't need to sail very far to get involved. Given the size of the build-up necessary to move 100, 000-200, 000 PLA soldiers around 100 miles over open ocean (a 12 hour journey) largely using unarmed commercial shipping, Taiwan-Japan-USA should have plenty of time to position themselves, quite apart from the fact that due to seasonal sea conditions there are only two brief weather windows per year when a crossing is practical. Oh yes, and remember that the PLA hasn't fought a proper battle (and when it did, very poorly) in over 40 years and amphibious combined operations are the most difficult thing for a military to pull off, especially given how siloed the different branches of the PLA are.

[FahimFerdoushChayon]

I love your work, Sam. Keep going. All the best.

[ronaldhunt]

No country operates "Battleships", you meant warships most likely. I believe a hybrid strategy would work best, Chinas largest problem in an invasion is that it does not have the sealift capability to take Taiwan so any landing ship lost decreases the odds of success of any attempted landing.

[peterliao]

From a Taiwanese studying in Singapore - your analysis is really spot on. While weapons for the porcupine strategy is essential to slow down an invasion, I think what we're trying to do now is to achieve a state of self sufficient national defense. We just made our first submarine and it's given the locals a lot more confidence in the capabilities of the military.