The triumph of the quants?: Model-based poll aggregation for election forecasting

Professor Simon Jackman, Chief Executive Officer at the United States Studies Centre, will examine recent successes and failures of predictive models of election outcomes. Professor Jackman will also discuss trends and discontinuities in the evolution of public opinion over election campaigns, spatial smoothing and pollster biases.

Professor Jackman's current research focuses on opportunities and challenges of web-based survey research, consequences of under-representation in social research, and developing methodologies for assessing symmetry and fairness.