John Mearsheimer: Is China the Real Winner of Ukraine War? | Endgame #136 (Luminaries)

“I think the situation we face today in the world is much more dangerous than it was during the Cold War,” warned realist John J. Mearsheimer in this conversation.

What are the underlying causes of his provoking statement? To what extent the United States should get its hands dirty?

Criticized by Michael McFaul in Endgame 134, realist John Mearsheimer defends his argument on the cause and consequences of the Ukraine War which he concludes as “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics”.

Mr. Mearsheimer, who is an R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, also shares his view on why the US hates his realism theory, who will benefit from the prolonged Ukraine War, and how the climate crisis might increase the geopolitical tension over the Arctic region.

Hosted by Gita Wirjawan, an Indonesian educator, entrepreneur, and current visiting scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University.

#Endgame #GitaWirjawan #JohnMearsheimer

This episode is supported by the Indonesian Students Association at the University of Chicago.

-----------------
Episode Notes:

-----------------
SGPP Indonesia Master of Public Policy:

Other "Endgame" episode playlists:

Listen on Spotify:

Visit and subscribe:

-----------------
Chapters
00:00:00 - Background
00:04:28 - Realism
00:09:31 - Great Power Politics
00:18:55 - Irrelevant Region?
00:23:55 - Ukraine Debate
00:31:21 - Geopolitics of Climate Crisis
00:38:00 - Boomerang Against the US
00:43:51 - Nuclear Paradox
00:51:36 - East Asia's Instability
00:58:18 - Incalculable Coefficient of War
01:06:50 - China Matters

[sunnicolya]

This is probably the best interview with Prof. Mearsheimer. And a great respect to the host for very thoughtful questions. I am Russian, but I have been listening to Prof. Mearsheimer with great interest for a long time. He is one of the best, if not the best, political theorist.

[fredsuun]

Now I understand why Chinese welcome Prof. John Mearsheimer. He is one of the few Western elites who do not blame China out of ideology (cliches of slave labor, human right, etc.) but seriously analyze China based on facts and theory. I especially appreciate his empathy on Chinese's struggle of sincerely trying to "peaceful rise." That empathy is so rare from another culture and shows his wisdom. Respect and look forward to more of his works and interviews.

[SaleemBaluch]

In my opinion, it is the best interview of Professor John Mearsheimer available on Youtube.

[jokepiebenga]

What a lesson in history from this Malaysian You Tuber! Thank you! ❤
I am an 80 year old woman from the Netherlands and a long time already I'm ashamed for what my country and the West in general has done to the world and what misery they brought on people all over the world.
We only can hope it's done now for the West.
In the near future there will come a lot of destruction and a shift in our so called 'values' and that will only be for the better for all human kind! ❤❤❤

[zlatkopodrug]

Thank you interviewer for never cutting and interrupting. Prof. Mearsheimer.

[secozy]

Kita diberi kuliah umum gratis materi tentang realisme. Sangat menarik dimana narasumber dan host saling diskusi dengan penguasaan materi yg rumit. Terima kasih pak gita. Podcast pak gita jadi chanel yg paling saya sukai.

[AuditorInvestor]

Very good talk and patient interviewer - appreciate it.

[EliDahi]

Oh, what a great interview. The interviewer’s carefully chosen questions and his slaw and calm style in asking, and Mearsheimer’s famous style in answering clearly and very convincing, make the interview look like a master peace for teaching in journalist University.

[andi-wp]

Tidak ada channel youtube di Indonesia yang kualitas narasumber dan kualitas diskusinya berkelas seperti Pak Gita, yang selalu bisa mengeksplor pemikiran narasumber dengan baik. di sini kita bisa melihat bahwa sebagus apapun narasumber, kalau host nya tidak bisa mengimbangi dengan leading pertanyaan yang bernas juga, maka hasil diskusi tidak akan berkualitas. pak gita tahu kapan mendengarkan, kapan menanggapi dengan menchallenge dst. 1 jam lebih tidak terasa dan kayak masih kurang.

[togatampubolon]

John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs are like the oases in US think tank now, especially in foreign policy toward China and Rusia. Hats off to you pak Gita to present them to talk.

[bigdlamz]

Master class in geo politics. Prof John Mearsheimer explans complex theories in a very digestible way indeed

[wong]

Professor Mearsheimer is the most intelligent and insightful geopolitical expert I have ever come across.

[Bulelengman]

Never in my life I would imagine a free accessible talks from John Mearsheimer. Terima kasih banyak Pak Gita..

[mbelgedhez]

Salah satu pakar paling dihormati dalam bidangnya, tapi juga paling sedikit didengarkan oleh para politisi. Demi mengejar keuntungan taktis dan jangka pendek, mereka harus kehilangan keuntungan strategis dlm jangka panjang. Dan itu jadi salah satu penyebab kemunduran AS: politisinya tidak mendengarkan ilmuwan, kalau mendengar adalah pada ilmuwan yg melayani kepentingan jangka pendek mereka.

Terimakasih Pak John dan Pak Gita!

[TehDina.English]

This amazing interview left me speechless. Im currently on the 5th semester as an iR student. Im quite struggling to understand and catch up with whats going on in International system. This video gives me more hopes, i regain my confidence to involve in every discussion in class now (at least i dont feel left behind anymore) bc i have fed my brain with such an amazing analysis. Thank you so much, bangga banget. Semoga ada kesempatan untuk undang Barry Buzan ya Pak Gita

[yetty]

❤ great teacher lucky to have such a knowledge person .every time i listen gives me more clarity and learn more real political world
Thank you sir
❤

[limjtet]

Sharing below written by a Malaysian YouTuber:

I’m from Malaysia. China has traded with Malaysia for 2000 years. In those years, they had been the world’s biggest powers many times. Never once they sent troops to take our land. China's admiral Zhenghe came to Malacca five times, in gigantic fleets, and a flagship eight times the size of Christopher Columbus’ flagship, Santa Maria. He could have seized Malacca easily, but he did not. In 1511, the Portuguese came. In 1642, the Dutch came. In the 18th century the British came. We were colonised by each, one after another.

When China wanted spices from India, they traded with the Indians. When they wanted gems, they traded with the Persian. They didn’t take lands. The only time China expanded beyond their current borders was in Yuan Dynasty, when Genghis and his descendants Ogedei Khan, Guyuk Khan & Kublai Khan concurred China, Mid Asia and Eastern Europe. But Yuan Dynasty, although being based in China, was a part of the Mongolian Empire.

Then came year 1800, the Century of Humiliation. Britain smuggled opium into China to dope the population, a strategy to turn the trade deficit around, after the British could not find enough silver to pay the Qing Dynasty in their tea and porcelain trades and the doping went on for over 30 years. After the opium warehouses were burned down and ports were closed by the Chinese in ordered to curb opium, the British started the Opium War I, which China lost. Hong Kong was forced to be surrendered to the British in a peace talk (Nanjing Treaty). The British owned 90% of the opium market in China, during that time, Queen Victoria was the world’s biggest drug baron. The remaining 10% was owned by American merchants from Boston. Many of Boston’s institutions were built with profit from opium.

After 12 years of Nanjing Treaty, the West started getting really really greedy. The British wanted the Qing government:
1. To open the borders of China to allow goods coming in and out freely, and tax free.
2. Make opium legal in China.
Insane requests, Qing government said no. The British and French (with supports from the US), started Opium War II with China, which again, China lost. The Anglo-French military raided the Summer Palace, and threatened to burn down the Imperial Palace, the Qing government was forced to pay with ports, free business zones, 300, 000 kilograms of silver and Kowloon was taken. Since then, China’s resources flew out freely through these business zones and ports. In the subsequent amendment to the treaties, Chinese people were sold overseas to serve as labor.

In 1900, China suffered attacks by the 8-National Alliance. These 8-Robbers were: Empire of Japan, Russian Empire, British Empire (including India), France, USA, Germany, Italy and Austria-Hungary. Innocent Chinese civilians in Peking (Beijing now) were murdered, buildings were destroyed & women were raped. The Imperial Palace was raided, and treasures ended up in museums like the British Museum in London and the Louvre in Paris.

In late 1930s China was occupied by the Japanese in WWII. Millions of Chinese died during the occupancy. 300, 000 Chinese died in Nanjing Massacre alone.

Mao brought China together again from the shambles. There were peace and unity for some time. But Mao’s later reign saw sufferings and deaths from famine and power struggles.

Then came Deng Xiao Ping and his infamous “black-cat and white-cat” story. His preference in pragmatism than ideologies transformed China. This thinking allowed China to evolve all the time to adapt to the actual needs in the country, instead of rigidly bounded to ideologies. It also signified the death of Communism in actually practice in China. The current Socialism+Meritocracy+Market Economy model fits the Chinese like gloves, and it propels the uprise of China. Singapore has a similar model, and has been arguably more successful than Hong Kong, because Hong Kong being gateway to China, was riding on the economic boom in China, while Singapore had no one to gain from.

In just 30 years, the CPC have moved 800 millions of people out from poverty. The rate of growth is unprecedented in human history. They have built the biggest mobile network, by far the biggest high speed rail network in the world, and they have become a behemoth in infrastructure. They made a fishing village called Shenzhen into the world’s second largest technological centre after the Silicon Valley. They are growing into a technological power house. It has the most elaborate e-commerce and cashless payment system in the world. They have launched exploration to Mars. The Chinese are living a good life and China has become one of the safest countries in the world. The level of patriotism in the country has reached an unprecedented height.

For all of the achievements, the West has nothing good to say about it. China suffers from intense anti-China propagandas from the West. Western Media used the keyword “Communist” to instil fear and hatred towards China.
Everything China does is negatively reported.

They claimed China used slave labor in making iPhones. The truth was, Apple was the most profitable company in the world, it took most of the profit, leave some to Foxconn (a Taiwanese company) and little to the labor.

They claimed China was inhuman with one-child policy. At the same time, they accused China of polluting the earth with its huge population. The fact is the Chinese consume just 30% of energy per capita compared to the US.

They claimed China underwent ethnic cleansing in Xinjiang. The fact is China has a policy which priorities ethnic minorities. For a long time, the ethnic minorities were allowed to have two children and the majority Han only allowed one. The minorities are allowed a lower score for university intakes. There are 39, 000 mosque in China, and 2100 in the US. China has about 3 times more mosque per muslim than the US.
When terrorist attacks happened in Xinjiang, China had two choices:
1. Re-educate the Uighur extremists before they turned terrorists.
2. Let them be, after they launch attacks and killed innocent people, bomb their homes.
China chose option 1 to solve problem from the root and not to do killing. How the US solve terrorism? Fire missiles from battleships, drop bombs from the sky.

During the pandemic, when China took extreme measures to lockdown the people, they were accused of being inhuman.
When China recovered swiftly because of the extreme measures, they were accused of lying about the actual numbers.
When China’s cases became so low that they could provide medical support to other countries, they were accused of politically motivated.
Western Media always have reasons to bash China.

Just like any country, there are irresponsible individuals from China which do bad and dirty things, but the China government overall has done very well. But I hear this comment over and over by people from the West: I like Chinese people, but the CPC is evil. What they really want is the Chinese to change the government, because the current one is too good.

Fortunately China is not a multi-party democratic country, otherwise the opposition party in China will be supported by notorious NGOs (Non-Government Organization) of the USA, like the NED (National Endowment for Democracy), to topple the ruling party. The US and the British couldn’t crack Mainland China, so they work on Hong Kong. Of all the ex-British colonial countries, only the Hong Kongers were offered BNOs by the British. Because the UK would like the Hong Kongers to think they are British citizens, not Chinese. A divide-and-conquer strategy, which they often used in Color Revolutions around the world.

They resort to low dirty tricks like detaining Huawei’s CFO & banning Huawei. They raised a silly trade war which benefits no one. Trade deficit always exist between a developing and a developed country. USA is like a luxury car seller who ask a farmer: why am I always buying your vegetables and you haven’t bought any of my cars?

When the Chinese were making socks for the world 30 years ago, the world let it be. But when Chinese started to make high technology products, like Huawei and DJI, it caused red-alert. Because when Western and Japanese products are equal to Chinese in technologies, they could never match the Chinese in prices. First world countries want China to continue in making socks. Instead of stepping up themselves, they want to pull China down.

The recent movement by the US against China has a very important background. When Libya, Iran, and China decided to ditch the US dollar in oil trades, Gaddafi’s was killed by the US, Iran was being sanctioned by the US, and now it’s China’s turn. The US has been printing money out of nothing. The only reason why the US Dollar is still widely accepted, is because it’s the only currency which oil is allowed to be traded with. The US has an agreement with Saudi that oil must be traded in US dollar ONLY. Without the petrol-dollar status, the US dollars will sink, and America will fall. Therefore anyone trying to disobey this order will be eliminated. China will soon use a gold-backed crypto-currency, the alarms in the White House go off like mad.

China’s achievement has been by hard work. Not by looting the world.

I have deep sympathy for China for all the suffering, but now I feel happy for them.

[manawa-]

WOW... as an International Relations student... I am amazed with this podcast session. I mean. I've been following you on Instagram and YouTube as well for more than 5 years and this is the most appealing talk I ever watch. Watching both of you makes me tremendously happy, because I can see and comprehend ideas and views from this Outstanding Scholar. Dankjewel Pak Gita.

[fiona]

This interview was fantastic, kudos to both gentleman. Listened to the following video recently on this platform --- John J Mearsheimer On behalf of Julian Assange -- I found Professor Mearsheimer's plea for Mr. Assange to be intelligent and compelling. This man is a gem to humanity in so many ways.

[alphamax]

He is one of the top professor I view to feed my geopolitical cravings. It's so much great to hear him explain the dynamics of today's world. You can surely take his word as the most closest prediction of unprecedented scenarios.