How to avoid war with China | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman

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GUEST BIO:
John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.

PODCAST INFO:

SOCIAL:

[LexClips]

Guest bio: John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.

[extrastout]

Mearsheimer is one of the most highly respected international relations scholars on the planet. Many weight classes above many of these youtube "political scientists" that we usually get. It's a pleasure to see him embrace popular media and hear from him in this format.

[viperking]

basically spheres of influence are like huge tectonic plates, and the people between them where they collide suffer the earthquakes

[Thisnthat]

John, if you don’t speak the language and spend years living in China, every thing you learn is 2nd hand, you talked to a few Chinese in English then you think you understand the majority of Chinese; can you imagine someone doesn’t speak English nor spend time in the States claims himself expert in American politics, strategy, understand thoughts of American?

[Timothy]

I’ve frequented mainland china many times during my trips to Hong Kong (crossing the border to mainland) and after talking to locals from all age groups. When they hear I’m from the UK, they talk very positively. Asking about weather, work, food etc. They don’t really give a crap about our politics, only care about what’s happening in their own country. And yes locals I’ve spoken to, share their disagreements about how the government/local government handles certain issues. So from personal experience of travelling to China for almost 20 years, and speaking to locals about politics, they want peace and don’t see ‘western’ countries as ‘enemies’. In fact they look up to American cultures and European architecture etc. I encourage folks to travel to China, it’s quite an eye opening experience. Especially if you aren’t shy to speak to locals!

[wenling]

I am a Chinese who constantly watch what China and US authorities on their preparations for confrontations for the counter part.
I think Chinese strategy for US military confrontation is simple and clear: make sure if war occurs, US military can’t win the war.
That’s the best strategy for US military hegemony: US can’t lose a war to another peer competitor, otherwise USA will immediately lose its prestige/influence over other regional powers.
Good luck for both side.

[NickatNite]

By now, I've watched so many clips of this interview, I believe I've watched the full version. This guy is SO interesting

[wyphonema]

99.9% american never visteded/traveled China.

[colonelmotorov]

The idea of both US and China building military power further so they will contain each other from doing reckless moves always strikes me as completely schizophrenic. If military power is constantly build up, it's going to explode sooner or later. These exprets think that this is all a competition and strategic containment, but for me it's all pre-WW1 all over again. If the last 10 years have taught us something is that Status Quos and "strategic ambiguities" are going to crumble sooner or later with catastrophic consequences. It's all just increasing tension higher and higher until it blows up. And they should stop counting on Cold War history in my opinion, in which war was avoided. Yes, BARELY AVOIDED.

[zhuangdavid]

American politicians have been practicing so called Monroe doctrine not just South America, but Europe, South Asia as well all the way to China border, including Taiwan. Without abandoning and rethinking on such aggressive and assertive guidelines, US-Chna relations will be difficult.

[testphone]

I agree with a lot of things John Mearsheimer said, but on the thread of using nuclear weapon on Taiwan toward the Chinese is not smart. This will trigger the Chinese get even closer with Russia and produce more nuclear weapons themselves. The only advantage Americans have is that they have more nuclear war heads. But America is already behind on delivery of missals and defend missal attacks. America is continuously failing the hypersonic missals test, but the Chinese is already designing hypersonic delivery of smaller missals to intercept missal attacks after their success in multiple types of hypersonic delivery vehicles. They are also designing suborbital bomber with initial success. This will make American missal defence system useless. Chinese government will not put up the thread on Taiwan since they deeply believe Taiwan is part of China. If the communist government behaves weak on this matter, they will loose their legitimacy.

[mintheman]

The problem with rattling the nuclear saber is China also has a nuclear arsenal that can reach the continental US through the North Pole. They are also increasing and modernizing the arsenal quite rapidly. For the sake of humanity, do we really want to go down that path?

[zhuangdavid]

Taiwan issue is one of the root cause of friction between US.and China. Taiwan returned to China at the end of WWII, at the cost of 30 millions Chinese lives, but many in US either lost such history dimension, or don't want to acknowledge such due to current politics. According to an article from Congress Library, "The Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945) was one of the most destructive conflicts of World War II... This war marked the culmination of growing Japanese aggression toward China since an earlier Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895). With half of China ruined, 20 million Chinese (military and non-military) dead... the eight-year conflict was one of the bloodiest in world history."

[lexy]

As a Chinese, it's hilarious to see how John thinks a slight threat of using nuclear might work.
He forgot we were the only country under nuclear threat by both the USSR and the USA in the late 60s.
Even at that time, we still wanted to defend our own state sovereignty.
Taiwan province is not America's core interest, but it is ours. It's just about seeing both sides' willingness(costs).
We don't have as much nuclear as America has, but still, enough for once. We both know each other's capabilities. Bluffing known by both is just trash talk.
John grew up during the cold war era. Somehow, I think he is unbelievably naive about Chinese determination.

[userwsyz]

Using nuclear war to threaten china about reclaim their own territory Taiwan blows my mind. That’s suicidal talk. China now has hypersonic missile that can reach us mainland in 15 minutes. China does not need nukes to destroy the ships in the ocean at all. Professor needs updated memo about Chinese military capabilities.

[yunke]

Some card can only be played once or it will lose the intimidation power. Taiwan is not the core interest of US so the nuclear card won't be played.

[thelammas]

Very simple. Stop picking a fight. Especially one that doesn’t exist, that you are imagining.

[zhuangdavid]

US and China apparently hold different world views rooted in different civilizations and history. For China, It's belief in holism, balance (harmony) and dynamism from Daoism. For Americans, it's.belief in anti-dualism and activism. These believes shaped their actions and own history on the world stage, may cause frictions or conflicts, but also show the value and importance of learning from each other.

[tommyrq]

Thucydides, thought of as the first real historian, commented that nations go to war for “reasons of fear, honor, and interest.” That simple formulation arguably hasn’t been improved for its insight and brevity. Only the wishful thinkers and utopians think you can minimize those Big Three and they interact. Since the beginning of time, the most dangerous animals in the forest were other humans so the impulse to fear others has always been a part of pragmatic security. The “security dilemma” occurs when fear leads nations to imagine (rightly or wrongly) that another nation’s defenses are in fact offensive, meant to invade or otherwise coerce. You would be negligent to not consider the downside risk. Historical examples abound. Love has nothing to do with it, sadly.

[Myth]

I will tell you from a Chinese perspective why China will incorporate TW at any cost:

1, For the emotional reason, as we are the same nation, speak the same language and share the same culture.

2, For the national security reason, TW's geographic location is strategically important to the mainland China .

3, Most importantly, China cost more than 10 million lives of death againsting Japanese brutal invasion during the WW2, and took TW back to motherland. Our ancestors won't agree if we allow TW to announce independence and assist bad guys to contain ourselves.

Therefore, China will unite TW sooner or later at all cost, if any outsider wanna stop it, China will fight to the end with no doubt 😊