How Ukraine Could (Eventually) Retake Crimea

Zelensky has repeatedly made it clear he wants to reclaim Crimea for Ukraine, but this is a tall order given Russia has occupied the region since 2014. So how might they actually achieve this? Is it a realistic possibility? And how would Putin respond?

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0:00 Introduction
01:03 Why Ukraine Wants Crimea
03:20 How It Might Happen
06:39 Is it Possible?

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[RancorSnp]

Sorry, I have to correct you at the opening of the video. You claim that Zelensky has declared retaking Crimea since the start of the war, but that is actually not true. His early war comments strongly excluded the possibility, as it seemed impossible to do so, and even if it could be achieved it would result in too much casualties. Retaking Crimea has only became something he declared, after it became apparent that it actually MAY be possible which was a few months after the start of the war

[deforged]

1:50

if "it is worth saying that it was far lower than any other region of Ukraine"
then its also "worth saying" that the reason for this is due to the families of the Russian naval officers and support staff that resided there for the duration of their jobs but wedre not actually permanent residents.

this is a fact that was further made relevant when years later.
As Putler's Frogmen crossed over into Crimea and held "voting referendum" Russia's own news media blew the lid on the fact that a substantial chunk of people voting were not locals but over night transplants, including the reporters themselves that were somehow able to cast a vote despite only being on the peninsula for the news coverage.

[amateurific]

5km is a very small gap. For context, the current front is about 1, 200km from North to South and both sides have struggled to break out.

[joels]

You can’t invade Crimea after it was already stolen. The term is reclamation.

[oscarshen]

Historically taking Crimea is possible, but not without huge casualties. They really shouldn't have lost it that easy in 2014.

[jurbroek]

Crimea is historically a difficult area to take. Couple that with the extreme importance of Sevastopol for the Russians, the majority of ethnic Russians living in Crimea, and Putin specifically having a high stake in keeping it in their hands, I just don’t see Ukraine recapturing the peninsula anytime soon. At least not with how it’s looking now, but who knows what the situation will be in a years time.

[craigkdillon]

You need to expand on the siege.
Sieges can take a long time.
After supplies & reinforcements are cut off, it can take a very long time
for the power of defense to weaken a lot.
Could be 6 months, a year, or longer.

Historically, many sieges lasted years.

[ruthenian.wisdom]

Went from “Kyiv will fall in mere days” to “How Ukraine can deoccupy crimea” that’s craaazyy

[seanlindsay]

The USA did say that they would not stop ukraine from taking back crimea, and ukraine would never be free if russia keeps it, as they could blocked any ukraine ships from delivering exports, plus ukraine would not get the big investments if crimea is not in their hands.

[myrlyn]

Another (very important) reason why Ukraine wants to retake Crimea is the offshore oil and gas deposits. Russia doesn't really need them because they have massive fields in the north and northeast already, but they would be quite useful to Ukraine, especially in the rebuilding effort after they throw the Russians out.

[samsonabdulai]

It's the just world which give Ukraine unflinching support in her bid to reclaim what is rightly and justly her land.

[avilancer]

There's a reason why Crimea got handed over to Ukraine. As other analytical/military commentators have said, Ukraine doesn't need to take Crimea to harm the Russian occupation there. They just need to cut off the land bridge to the peninsula. Russia will then be forced to rely solely on the bridge, which isn't enough, or on expensive air or sea transports to supply them. It will then put Russia in a dilemma to either retreat or stay and risk its forces getting cut off, just like their previous situation in Kherson.

Also, Russia used those passages to supply/attack Ukraine from Crimea. Can't Ukraine use those same passages to counterattack?

[fatimnster]

@TLDR News EU guys, please don't take this the wrong way, but would you consider not using that photo of Zelensky at 1:11? The reason I'm asking is because it was taken during his Bucha visit while the bodies of executed civilians were still being exhumed and inspected which is why he looks like he's holding back tears. This is my personal opinion, but it almost feels insensitive towards the victims and witnesses especially considering Bucha liberation's anniversary was literally three days ago.

Edit: obviously this photo is fine and should be used in the context of Bucha massacre, however using it to illustrate a random quote almost feels wrong.

[bikkiikun]

Mind you, since the establishment of the Crimean SSR in 1919, the peninsular has only been part of Russia proper for about 9 years (1945 - 54) after which it was tranferred to Ukraine.

[OldsReporter]

Yeah, right. Very informative.
It's similar to how to put an elephant into a refrigerator:
Step 1, open the fridge door. Step 2, put the elephant in. Step 3, close the fridge door.
Simple as that!

[tariver]

1:26 It's not just Russian SSR, but SFSR, There is a word Federative in its name.

[RonLWilson]

Wide rivers like the Dnipro constitute unique terrain in that they fall between narrow rivers and oceans. The former can be bridges but have limited navigability while the later have great navigability but require sea worthy craft that can operate over great distances while a wide river has a unique blend of these two.

As such wide rivers support barge operations in that the barge need not have to operate over long distances but just be able to ferry troops and equipment across the river plus maybe a bit up stream or downstream as well and as such can be both relatively inexpensive but can aloo carry very heavy loads.

Take for example the massive concrete docks used to support the invasion of Normandy during WW2.

Thus massive and otherwise unwieldy and slow craft can be made into barges that could both ferry troops and supplies but heavy vehicles across the Dnipro river. And since these can carry much weight they can be armored with either steel or even concrete against direct AT fire weapons much the same as did the Union Navy employed in the American Civil War except employing 21st century technology to make modern river gunboats and such where those long rivers such as the Mississippi, Ohio, Tennessee and Cumberland rivers became assets and not liabilities.

Thus water can be one's friend in that it can provide a very efficient and economical way of moving heavy loads given one can keep those watercraft afloat long enough to make a river crossing or two or three where say a long pontoon bridge is not so easy to harden. One can even have craft that travel under water, albeit only a few feet so to make them even harder targets to take out. Thus say one can make a concrete barge that can carry a tank and that with the weight of the tank sinks just below the water's surface or maybe with just a few inches above it and (if totally submerged) only has say a small periscope and snorkel above the water and is propelled much the same as a electric car that could ferry a tank across the Dnipro.

And say if it is just flush with the surface the tank gun could be fired while crossing making it a fortified gunboat, maybe a good use to put those captured T-62 tanks. The point here is that a wide river is a different critter than either a narrow one or an open sea.

[Islandlifefornow]

Outside of this news, it just occurred to me there are two different host speakers (TLDR Daily & TLDR EU). You guys are different people, yeah? .... I've been watching your channel for so long and I just noticed. 😊🙏

[sonicmeerkat]

While I am optimistic it would definitely have to be cut off from Russia's land bridge because well, it's the entire reason the land bridge is needed to begin with, Russia would go full defence mode in the west and offensive on the east to make sure their strength doesn't get sapped away while they try to push with whatever supply lines they have left.

That said russian incompetence they could just try human wave attacks until there's no Crimean defence and make it easy, I doubt that'd happen but I wouldn't be surprised.

[napoleonibonaparte]

Ukraine should ask for a fleet of amphibious vehicles as a ploy to split Russian attention in the South and from the river. As a means to retake or to distract. At the same time, Ukraine must need drones to patrol water ways to prevent supplies from landing after land routes are destroyed.

Ukraine would need extensive planning should they plan to take Crimea. It must be surprise, shock and quick.