Oxford Mathematician explains SIR Disease Model for COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

The SIR model is one of the simplest disease models we have to explain the spread of a virus through a population. I first explain where the model comes from, including the assumptions that are made and how the equations are derived, before going on to use the results of the model to answer three important questions:

1. Will the disease spread? 6:32
2. What is the maximum number of people that will have the disease at one time? 11:00
3. How many people will catch the disease in total? 16:55

The answers to these questions are discussed in the context of the current COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak. The model tells us that to reduce the impact of the disease we need to lower the ‘contact ratio’ as much as possible – which is exactly what the current social distancing measures are designed to do.

The third video including an Incubation Time in the SIR disease model is here:

Produced by Dr Tom Crawford at the University of Oxford.

You can also follow Tom on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram @tomrocksmaths

Get your Tom Rocks Maths merchandise here:

[TomRocksMaths]

Just to clarify, the idea of this video is to inform people about how maths is used to model disease spread and to show why social distancing is SO important in reducing the impact of an outbreak. I am not giving medical advice, just informing you all of some of the background behind the advice given by the experts. Stay safe everyone and remember to keep your distance.

[siddharthsethia]

If machine gun kelly pursued maths instead of rap. Thanks a lot for the video, helped me with a report.

[clark]

Hi, I'm S. Korean Highschooler and honestly respect you. This was much significant to me.Thx

[kalynhowes]

This video is great and the material is explained so well! This is exactly what I needed for my Calc III report on COVID-19. I'm glad to see some "real" math rather than the same graph showing the "flattening of the curve" over and over again.

[mathemaniac]

I used the statistics on the values of S, I, R, and the changes in S, I, and R each day, and plug it into the SIR model, and the current estimate is that the total number of infected individuals (I + R) can reach *a quarter of* the world population.

We do need to decrease the value of R_0 drastically to stop the spread of the disease. Great video with a great message!

[theultimatereductionist]

Differential algebraist here! Our entire lives/careers are devoted to searching for exact solutions to systems of differential equations like the SIR model!

[alessandrobertarelli]

Hi Dr Crawford, I've discovered your channel recently and, as a maths fan, I wanted to say that I think you did an amazing job at explaining the SIR model in a clear and understandable way.
In fact, I've liked this video so much that I decided to add Italian captions so that I can share it even with people here in Italy who don't understand a lot of English. Hopefully my captions will soon be available and other languages will be added too by other people because I believe your videos deserve them :)

(Also perhaps I will add captions for other videos of yours soon )

[jackwilliams]

I was just building an SIR model to fit the parameters for COVID-19 in python! Fantastic video

[veqv]

Oh man, I'm so happy I found this video! You're explanations were spot on!

Here's a poem I wrote that you might enjoy:

For Nietzsche a horse was the abyss that he gazed


Cantor's Menge left his Geist behind


For Frege a letter: set-foundation ablaze


Russell's type too simple, unrefined


Old Gödel starved from independence


Turing tested apples, halting just the same


Bourbaki brought austerity to their descendants


But Coxeter grouped beauty with this formalist game


Now,


we know that


S increased when Boltzmann hanged his brain and


Noether's tumor was 'only' topological


Grothendieck schemed so much


and then


he went insane


Riemann and Ramanujan left before their prime


But it's their heartiness and flux


that let them pass the test of time


Ehrhart taught high-school


And Erdős was homeless


In the end


Euler went blind


Little Andrew Weil beat the devil with a deal


Weierstrass had demons too, concerning with the reals


The foundations still shudder


The Crisis, incomplete


Brouwer's points don't fix or feel


The shaking at our feet.

[lynnmillerhandbells]

I’m so glad you are here. Stay safe, spread the math word. Thanks so much. Minnesota, USA

[logicomix]

Thank you so much for sharing understanding and reason in this absolutly crazy time.
Best wishes to you all from Munich :)

[helenlin]

Thank you so much for making this video, it really helped my math modelling coursework, got 80+%🎉 ( I am in a UK uni so super happy with that ❤❤❤)

[tobiasnn]

this video is pure gold, my final exam was an sir model based project, and your video helped me a lot

[tomasstrnad]

I would love to see some of the more advanced models

[suwelapaimvassoa]

Wow. Thank you so much! I know your aim was to emphasize the importance of the precaution measures for COVID-19, but this video was very explanatory for my IB Mathematics SL Internal Assessment.

[krishnapriyau]

First of all i would like to say thank you for sharing your worthy information with us.
As a mathematics student i think that, by familiarising the applications in mathematical field we tend more close to this field.Moreover, by explaining safety measures of this epidemic spread in a mathematical model is way more accessible.
I would love to see more advanced models if that's something you are interested as well.Spread the math word and thank you once again. 🙏👏

[OntologicalQuandry]

In this video I learnt about the SIR model for diseases and that vertical stripes really accentuate hip movements.

[brittanyleach]

Simply wonderful video!
I graduated ten years ago with my bachelor's in math and I've ended up not really using it. (Partially because of a long bout with disability)
BUT had I been taught about this connection to the medical field and mathematical modeling I may have continued my pursuit of mathematics further. I love math and medicine, but honestly hated differential equations because I had a terrible professor.
Your real world application makes it very interesting even if completely understanding the details concerns me a bit more than the average person.
Thanks for sharing!

[windslayerr]

If I can make a suggestion, please keep the important equations, such as "q" written down, I had to go back to look it up every time. You have a whole left side of the board you're not using.

[txoutlawent.]

Is the sound of the chalkboard soothing to anyone else?