SIR model of infection

Systems dynamics model for the spread of an infectious contagion as applied to COVID-19

[hengsopheab]

Thank you for the nice presentation. I am watching few times to follow this. Simple and clear presentation.

[josephbourque]

Thanks for a very clear presentation of the SIR model of Covid19 using the Korean data. It is very sobering.

[cbebutuoy]

Someone raised the question of whether we may be over-estimating the value of the flatten the curve idea: "...this all begs the question: is it better to flatten the curve? the area under the curve represents the number of cases, and if you look at both extremes, the area may end up being the same. Yes, flattening the curve, reduces the impact to health industries, which allows us to address cases better and likely reduces the mortality rate, but what if prolonging it causes the mortality rate to ultimately end up the same simply because it’s around longer? and what about the collateral damage to business, industry, and economics and how that affects people? What about incidental deaths brought about by people who lost their incomes and couldn’t pay for medication anymore? What about people losing their homes and livelihood because they couldn’t hang on through 8 months of countermeasures (social isolation, business closure, etc) whereas 3 months would have been a tolerable limit?"

[coolbreez]

Hello, Thank you very much! you have made SIR model simple and useful. I appreciate if you explain whether you derived the S. Korea parameters (beta, recovery rate, mortality rate) from the Johns Hopkins dataset or used from a published article? if the dataset is used, What formula is used to derive beta and recovery rate? I am trying to model data from my region, your inputs will be greatly appreciated! Thanks in advance!