Oxford Mathematician explains the effect of Vaccines on the COVID-19 Pandemic

University of Oxford Mathematician Dr Tom Crawford explains how the availability of vaccines affects our ability to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

Three main questions are answered using the SIR model for disease spread:
Q1. What is the condition for the pandemic to stop?
Q2. How many people do we need to vaccinate to reach this?
Q3. What happens if the vaccines aren't 100% effective?

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[amaarquadri]

I'd love to see how adding a vaccination rate modifies the differential equations.

[dhruvilhirpara]

Thank You for this video Tom. I designed my entire Maths Project around this video and the previous video!! Amazing Explanation.

[martinfeliperamirezmunoz]

Thanks for sharing the information and explaining the details

[majesticwizardcat]

Shouldn't the equation be: V + S* + R = 1 ? This would also include people who have developed immunity for the disease and thus making the V population to be less than 1 - 1/Ro - R.

[dila]

I genuinely enjoy your videos... at first, your face 🥺 helped a little bit to get me interested but now I’m here for the content and content only.
just for the content.
just for that.

[queNWS]

Thank You for your videos in the lockdown. Very interesting

[etaafk]

I am thankfull for this video and i would like to see more on this topic if possible because i am preparing it for my last year presentation thanks again

[morganfalkdesigns]

Please do one on the R0 of the DELTA variant.

[tenzinsingey]

Hi Tom, I have watched all your series on the COVID-19 modelling. I am just curious about how do we find the values of r and a, which are the rates, to begin with? Can you please guide me how to find those values?

[Kitsune-ldry]

You are a really great explainer!
It was easier for me to try to understand than usual, but still hard cause I am a complete nub at Math :(((
Thank you for raising such an important topic.

[lamyahomaydan]

Thank you so much for explaining this concept.

[shivampal]

Sir please upload Real analysis complete book playlist ❤️from🇮🇳

[PrakashPrakash-klgj]

Can you explain this with graphical representations

[salaudeenyusuf]

Please what is the name of the channel's name of your guest. I will love to subscribe to his channel.thNks

[taegrr_yt]

Can I get a clarification on an item I find confusing? When discussing the conditions to stop the spread, rS*/a < 1 which is rearranged to S* < a/r. From this (based on an assumed R0 of 3), the final condition is then S* < 1/3. I'm confused with two parts. When does 'lower case a' become 1? And the 'lower case r' is being evaluated with the R0 value, but R0 depends on lower case r already. So perhaps I'm confused on the distinction between 'lower case r' and R0.

[petergoh]

Hi, I’m in middle school and this is my first time writing a mathematics essay and the topic is “ usage of mathematics in COVID-19 “. If I want to use some of the equations in this video (I don’t have the knowledge to derive them myself). How to I cite the video in my references? Do I provide a link to this video?

[PinoyManUtdFan]

Tom, would really love an update on this considering: impact of new variants. I am guessing R will increase if variants like Omicron are more transmissible, and impact of people not getting the vaccines. Is there a model that shows emergence of new variants can be attributed to the unvaccinated?

[ianhodgson]

This will probably be beyond the scope of videos you could do but I was wondering how (in general terms) you would incorporate time-dependence in this analysis? Your video covers a "steady state" epidemic, with R0, vaccine effectiveness etc as fixed. However, the vaccines take 2-3 weeks to become effective (so e increases during this time) and there is a possibility that immunity only lasts a certain time (so e reduces over longer timescales). Also the virus mutates and new variants seem to have increased infectivity and also may reduce vaccine effectiveness as they emerge. Is this why epidemics in history seem to occur in waves? Does this become similar to a fluid mechanics problem?
Also, how would you handle the issue of vaccination level varying between different regions (with a certain amount of cross-infection between regions) and the "leakiness" of national borders, so there is a reservoir of susceptible people and sources of infection outside the national population?
Again I realise you would have to build a mega-model to cope with all this (hopefully someone advising government has done this1), but it would be interesting to see how this could be handled in a hand-waving sort of way.

[matejcataric]

Hey Tom, great video!
I have a question about the tattos...is that true if you have a tattoo on visible area lets say hand that you are less likely to get a job at Uni?

[ferminvaldesdominguez]

I had to do this for a homework assignment and this has changed the way I think about vaccinations (and I say this as a Biologist in training). You bet I’m sending this to everyone :) ! I see math as a way to extract patterns from the world, why not add these patterns and this logic?