Oxford Mathematician explains Exponential Growth for COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

University of Oxford Mathematician Dr Tom Crawford explains exponential growth in the context of an epidemic such as that for COVID-19/Coronavirus. Beginning with one primary infection we see how the number of cases increases dramatically over a period of only 30 days to more than one thousand. All sources are referenced below.

Produced by Dr Tom Crawford at the University of Oxford.

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[GoranNewsum]

Might not have been the best day to wear your "only just begun" t-shirt...

[tavishu]

Was the duration of this video intentionally 3.14?

[DH-zpbc]

This is incredibly simplistic. It doesnt take into account anything:
1) Individual response to virus. Age, general health, genetics etc.
2) Environment.
3) Seasons.
4) Impact on immune system through isolation, lack of contact.
5) Other health disorders mental wellbeing or physical caused by decreased activities.
6) Loss of income and ability to pay bills due to job losses.
7) Lack of access to goods and services due to enforced closures.

I could go on and on.

If you're reading this and you're young and you cannot decide whether to go to University or not, the short answer is don't if you can avoid it.

[daisywang]

thank you for your video, it really makes things clear, I'll share it with my friends and remind them wear face mask when they go out, just receive some masks from ojomask and will share the masks with my friends.

[drbob]

As an academic, enjoyed the video and the clear way you explain it.

[davidescobar]

Who was the good man who translate this video into Spanish... Thank you so much. I understand English in a middle level... Not too little, not too much. So for me is more comfortable to understand this topic in Spanish that English and I can have a better understanding of the problem that Tom Crawford Professor is explain it. Greetings from Colombia. Good Video

[chikoperez]

Tom . Thank you for this info . Visually my 4 years old son is less concerned about outside and more indoor practicing his math skills.

[shamalabed]

What's the formula for this please
Like exponent functions

[Mister_Superfly]

11 months later and we're still here, though I shouldn't be surprised.

[jmda]

Thanks Tom, I really apreciate your explanation. Can you explain this mathematically? Why 50% less exposure dramatically change the infected people?

[anubhav]

Hey Tom, just had a doubt. Why is it 1296 infections but not 1105? Is the calculation for the total cases in a 30 day period 3+9+27+81+243+729?

[Marinus_Calamari]

0:03 "Doing something _positive_ during a pandemic."

Your mom probably warned you about that.

[misgrmath]

hi Tom, great video! should day 30 be 972 cases rather than 1296 by any chance? (243+243*3)?

[kevinireland]

My speculation is that the R0 in America will be higher (perhaps much higher) than in other countries. A large percentage of Americans don't have healthcare benefits or paid sick leave, so will be forced by economic necessity to continue to work as long as possible - and spread the disease more widely. Similarly, testing continues to be highly restricted in most of America. Many Americans who suspect that they might be infected have no way to confirm it until they're hospitalized.

[surajthapa]

Hi Tom, Could there be any mathematical reason behind this 5 days transmission period apart from WHO estimate? Thanks

[francismausley]

Thank you. In matters of health, it's certainly best to listen to the advice of competent physicians over others. Baha'is believe: "One must obey the command of God and submit to medical opinion." ~ Abdul-Baha, Bahá’í Writings

[leinadatinsoc]

well, based now on numbers of infected people In Romania, at least, there is hardly a exponential regression, but rather a polynomial of 4-5 degree

[failuretothink]

Interesting watching this, after reading the cases doubled from 2 million to 4 million in 6 weeks...

[omartecomparte]

I really liked your video, Tom! Keep it up!

[samlair]

While the initial COVID-19 virus has an R0 of 2.3-2.7 (one infected person is likely to infect 2.3 to 2.7 unaware people), the Alpha (United Kingdom variant) has an R0 of 4-5, and the Delta (Indian) variant has an R0 of 5-8.