Rebuilding Starship. Will SpaceX get a chance to launch again soon?

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An updated, realistic assessment of Starship's next flight opportunity.

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could've would've should've. that was a good test. sx need to keep testing.

arthurhamilton
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SpaceX and Tesla are good at iteration so I think the problems should be resolved relatively quickly.

HossBlues
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The argument about dumping is specious. A company that intentionally dumps versus one that does not are two different legal issues. I guarantee that SpaceX did not intend to dump concrete in the gulf.

shepnorfleet
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Hm, I still say a launch platform extending out into the gulf would be a good choice. More expensive, sure, but likely much less debris to throw around

GoranXII
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Jordan - The water cooled steel plate was used in the 1960’s for testing the Titans II & IV. Maximum thrust on Titan IV was 550, 000+ lbs., and it worked without damage. So, it should work here if SpaceX can scale it up and add a water deluge system.
You mentioned Bill Nelson’s testimony to Congress where he said SpaceX would definitely launch in 2 to 3 months. They have flame trenches & water deluge systems at KSC, & Bill Nelson can decide to override NASA Managers & allow Starship to launch from KSC in 2 - 3 months.

TraditionalAnglican
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SS "24/7" dug its own flame trench, SpaceX just needs to lay rebar and fondag to finnish it 😂

menotyou
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You can't easily ramp static fires up to full thrust (especially with a long duration) without making very big changes to hold the rocket down against that thrust.
In the launch, they said that the holding clamps are released before the engines light, so once the thrust is > mass the rocket is going to move

realistically, there are some thing that can't be tested short of an actual launch. The FAA recognizes this, which is why I don't expect them to be as frantic about it as you are expecting. If this was a mature system that failed in an unexpected way, yes, they would want to piece everything together to figure out what went wrong. But for early, experimental testing they don't have a routine baseline to compare things against and the FAA has even less information about what will happen than SpaceX does

It's also useful to remember how obsolete S24/B7 were at the time of launch. There are at least two newer generations of ships built and at least one new generation of boosters.

The flight termination system was approved by the FAA, but the Starship ended up having larger safety margins than expected (see below for my rant on computer models), so the charges that were approved ended up not being large enough. Given that the simulations failed to accurately predict the results, I would not be surprised to see them blow up a large structure (possibly a full booster and ship, less engines) filled with LNG or LOX with much larger charges (see Scott Manley's video on flight termination systems). Re-certifying the system will probably be the hardest part, but I think a demo will go a long way towards satisfying everyone.

And please retire your 'they need a flame trench' talking point.
In Florida, the SLS has 27 meters between the bottom of the engines and the bottom of the flame trench (with far less distance to the flame diverter) and the exhaust is funneled out in one direction (the shuttle sent the SRB exhaust in one direction and the main engines in the other direction, for the SLS they made a single-sided diverter to make maintinance easier)

In Texas, the Starship has 25 meters between the bottom of the engines and the ground and the exhaust can escape in 6 directions. Now, it's a fair question if they need flame diverters, but any such diverters would have the same problem of aerospike nozzles, how do you cool the tip of the spike so it doesn't melt (if it melts and the exhaust starts going down into the center of the diverter, it will then push it apart from the inside)

I'm very sure that the FAA will be going over the simulations with SpaceX before the next launch, but simulations only model the parts programmed into the simulation. Nobody thought to model the sand under the concrete before the last launch or the effect that the concrete bending down into the resulting gap. You could have delayed the launch for years to analyze everything and not had anyone think about needing to add that to the model.

computer models work very well when you are working within the envelope of what has worked in the past, they are much less reliable as you are extrapolating beyond that envelope as there are inflection points where behavior changes and those have to be measured before they can be programmed into the model.

davidelang
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I think the FTS not initially working is priceless data. Things could have happened that would have ended SpaceX or at least caused it to be acquired by the government for pennies on the dollar. They’ll never make that mistake again.

tazerface
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Sensitive area? I have been there. just wild land. Just weeds and insects. Perfect area for launch site. Think about it, you dont want to launch near population. plus its close to the ocean. We are talking about important historic future space flight . Exceptions and support should be made,

jbird
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Cape Canaveral was a rocket test range from 1958 long before there was an environmental movement or EPA

charlie
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Government regulations are way different for Test/Development stuff then it is for Production stuff. That's why the space shuttle was never production ready and always a test vehicle. So Yes, if a construction site blew up like that there had better be the worlds biggest investigation.

lucidmoses
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Another possibility is to make a pad on piles in 150 ft of ocean water. The ocean water would cool the rocket flame automatically. A platform could be built near shore to connecting transportation.

jbird
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Testing the water cooled metal plate use SN 25 for a 3 raptor burn as test one then use B9 to work up from there.
The law suite needs to be throw out because most of it is BS.
The OLM will be rebuilt in 7-10 weeks so SpaceX can start testing it.

RowanMangion
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Got here late, but I'm going with 3 to 6 months. From SW Florida.

vidyaishaya
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@Astro_Angry, so sorry I missed you Live!

robertmorgan
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Keep it real AA!! Your always going to upset some over sensitive bleeding hearts.. lol Your a breath of fresh air.

serenitynow
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What Elon needs to know is that having a SpaceX biology department to take care of Starbase and the surrounding nature would be a good start toward having the skills to build agroecosystems and naturalistic parks in space, on the Moon and Mars. He also should have an anthropology-sociology department to deal with the indigenous people and other locals that would be quite useful in creating a new society off Earth. Those things would go quite far in diffusing the criticism toward what he is doing to the people and ecology.

rodsprague
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This was Booster Number 7 & Starship Number 24 - SpaceX has already made BN 9 & SN 29, both of which are the latest designs & have the latest Raptor engines, unlike this launch.

TraditionalAnglican
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You know what the safest option is? Don't ever fly.

Safety third.

k
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Assuming the government allows them to sue. Seems like a conflict of interest if you get to decide if your allowed to be sued. :)

shepnorfleet