Housing Expert: “Why Home Prices Will Crash In 2026”

The YouTube Creator Academy:

HOME PRICES IN 2024:

The 18-Year-Cycle:
This was originally identified by the British Real Estate Economist, Fred Harrison, and by using these techniques, he correctly predicted the housing market crashes in the early 1990s and in 2008 (a full decade before they happened). Currently, he believes the his next “housing crash” is predicted to occur in 2026.

As he explains, each 18-year cycle consists of a 14-year expansion, where prices rise, followed by a subsequent 4 years where prices fall. At first, demand is low, the market is uncertain, banks aren’t lending a lot of money, and new constructions somewhat stall. However, in the next phase, demand begins to pick up, rents begin to increase as inventory slowly gets bought, and construction begins to pick up to satisfy the extra demand.

In the third phase, the market starts to get overheated…prices rise at an unprecedented rate, and more inventory begins to flood the market. Some even call this “The Winners Curse” as new people buy in, expecting profits to be a sure thing.

However - in the fourth phase, demand begins to fizzle out, overbuilding causes prices to drop, banks scale back lending, buyers wait because they believe prices will continue falling, sellers reduce their asking prices, and eventually, the cycle starts over again.

Where Prices Are Falling In 2024:
Currently, Texas and Florida are leading the nation with the largest price drops. As Business Insider reported, “Both states have been building more homes than any other part of the US, in a race to make room for pandemic-era newcomers.” Or, basically: the states that saw the largest pandemic “Boom” were also the same areas that saw the most development, most price growth, and most over-saturation to the point where - now - there’s not the same appeal, it’s no longer the most cost-effective, and there’s more demand than supply.

Even Manhattan Real Estate Prices are beginning to turn the corner, with the average sales price falling 3% thanks to rising inventory. In fact, there’s now 9.8 months worth of supply listed for sale, meaning they’re officially in a “buyer’s market.”

Shrinkflation For Housing:
Lately, homes are getting smaller for the sake of reducing prices. Previously, builders would want to maximize the square footage on vacant land for resale value, so they’ll typically max out whatever they’re able to construct.

However, a recent analysis found that single-family homes have decreased in size to the lowest levels since 2010, and builders are beginning to focus their efforts on constructing more starter homes. Zillow even reported a 9.5% increase in single-family homes with fewer than 3 bedrooms.

Overall, though - outside of a few markets that have declined - nationally, average prices have still risen 6.3% year-over-year, existing homeowners are paying 21% more for insurance than they did just a few years ago (again, thanks to higher building costs) and in the short term, that’s unlikely to slow down.

My ENTIRE Camera and Recording Equipment:

*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available. This is not investment advice.

[rain]

Listening to graham stephan is like taking advice from lotto winner on how to win the lottery again.

[arnoldfarias]

Your credibility crashed, but stocks and housing hasn’t.

[SocialMediaMoneyy]

WHAT IF GRAHAM STEPHAN GOT A LOW TAPER FADE

[nicholassimokaitis]

Graham you inspired me to put my life’s saving all on black

[wpsrealestate]

I hate to say it but Graham has made like 20 of these videos over the last five years and none of the predictions have ever come true!

[DerekBee]

The trick is to say that every year so at some point you are bound to be right.

[kenkrawcheck]

Gotta be the fiftieth time this guy been saying crashing go back and look at the thumbnails. Videos should start with “i know ive been completely wrong with my predictions”

[AnAbsurdExistence]

Blocking comments with a certain banks name, interesting.

[jollyroger]

Bro's been cooked in all his last videos. What's up?

[dabaydestrian]

In 2017, they said there will be a crash, then in 2018 they said it again, and in 2019, they said it again, and in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. lol I guess if you say it every single year, it will eventually come true 😂😂

[Seanh]

A housing crash prediction from Graham? Where have I heard that from him every single week for years?

[timelbrecht]

They have been saying this for three years. Houses here are still selling over asking.

[lifeofsim]

I love when he makes these yearly video of the market crashing

[PrehistoricMagazine]

I so tired of click bait one day the housing market will crash and one day we will all die. Mike

[karenjensen]

If I won the lottery, I would build 500 1500 sq ft 3-2 brick homes on small lots. They would sell like hotcakes.😅

[stevejernejcic]

More families move in the summer when school is out and the kids are transitioning from one grade to another.

[LRains]

How many times are you going to make this video? Meanwhile, prices continue to rise.

[FUNNYBUNNI]

Just stop it Graham ….no home crash is coming!

[haroldmaynor]

I'm prepared to sell my home in 2026 for maximum returns on regrets

[thetoptaco]

Ive been beside myself since covid seeing the goalpost of a downpayment continually shift more and more forward. Trying to be patient for another downfall is tough lol.