The Housing Expert: 'Why Home Prices Aren't Crashing Yet' - Logan Mohtashami

Logan Mohtashami is a renowned expert in the mortgage and housing ecosystem, recognized for his insightful analysis and commentary on the U.S. economy and real estate market.

00:00 Intro
01:52 Current State of The Housing Market
06:19 The Housing Market Is In A Recession
11:02 Residential Construction Cycle
12:04 Residential Employment Strength
14:40 Will Residential Construction Employment Weaken?
18:14 Why Are Housing Bears Wrong?
26:24 What Is A Qualified Mortgage?
28:59 How Will A Weak Labor Market Impact Home Prices?
36:46 This Housing Cycle Is Different
41:52 Regional Disparities In The Housing Market
46:20 Phoenix vs. Las Vegas Housing Market
51:34 Florida's Housing Market Crash?
59:46 Factors Driving Florida's Insurance Issue
01:03:38 Commercial Real Estate Market Stress
01:08:09 Declining Rents In Multi-family Buildings?
01:10:30 Will The Fed Bailout Commercial Real Estate?
01:18:26 Last Guest Question

Follow Logan:

Follow Eric

[Pat_laura]

Fortunately, my spouse and I were able to pay off our mortgage early. While we were both still employed, we took the money we had been using to accelerate our mortgage repayment and invested it immediately. Thanks to nearly 7 years of saving what would have been our mortgage payment and to maxing out our 401K/403B plans, we were able to retire early. Fortunately, both of our parents instilled in us the need of living within our means.

[KarenLavia]

I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can .buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2025. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?

[Golden.]

What about all these corporations buying houses? I feel that played a very significant role

[matteo]

Unbelievable that this high quality research is available for free

[Circumnavigate]

Great to see you've started a podcast

[SunFarer]

I used to make fun of you for being a housing permabear but since you brought Logan on, I’ll take it back. Well done young fella

[letsgocapsbeatpens]

Logan, in the “Housing Market” section basically said he doesn’t know where the market will go and is looking at the data week to week. Logan is not alone, we are in uncharted territory with this economy and most economists have been wrong. Of course if you scream recession every month and/or years you’ll eventually be right.

[jonathantaylor]

The housing market didn't care about the flu.. it cared about extremely low rates. The 10 year UST hit a low of 0.53%- that's $5, 300 in annual yield on a 1M dollar bond investment. The longterm average on the 10 year is 5.83% or over $58, 000 on 1M. Of course investors looked for alternatives. Two 500K rental homes could gross you 60K a year and net you 20K a year and the underlying asset was appreciating by 10%+ YoY. And people are shocked this happened lol.. Artificially low rates have consequences. You witnessed the first pandemic in human history when RE prices went UP! (usually people dying en masse is bearish considering dead people don't need a house).

[kobac]

Thanks, Eric, very insightful conversation. A better mic from your side would make it excellent.

[mikehysell]

outside of some extreme edge cases, there's no real hope of home prices correcting and the joys of California have been brought to the entirety of the country? How depressing but can't argue with the data.

[InLakechAlaKin]

Did this guy really just blame low housing inventory trends since ‘08 on millennials?!? What a horrible take… guess what started in ‘08? AirBnB and the start of investors buying up and hoarding residential housing.

[BaileyJames-zvddd]

As I approach retirement, I'd like to relocate from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but real estate costs are absurdly high, and mortgage rates have been steadily rising (now over 7%). Shall I simply put my extra money into stocks and wait for the housing market to crash, or should I purchase a house now?

[IslandStyle]

I am with Remax on Vancouver Island. Four listings. Averaging about 3 showings a month TOTAL. It's very quiet.

[stanislavm]

Amazing information and analysis, so many variables were mentioned and discussed, this interview was long and detailed reflecting how complex market trends are. For the same reasons no one can say for sure what's going to happen next and how economy and home prices will behave in the furute. Thanks for great interview.

[ItsAName_]

Great interview! Really appreciated the perspective from Logan and the conversation between you two was fantastic.

[petergeddesrensen]

The crash is ongoing and hidden to most people, because the unit of fiat valuation (USD) has been devalued about 6 times versus gold in 20 years.

[SamWhitlock]

So excited to see longer stuff from EPB! Can't wait to watch these podcasts! :D

[profitmix]

People are going into massive debt buying homes cause someone is telling them it’s an investment. It’s pretty sad when they start to realize it’s a liability.

[joshualawings]

Such a great conversation! Thank you for this! All your videos bring great value and this longer form content/conversation was fun to listen to.

[PbR]

I’ve been waiting and hoping that Eric would start a more in-depth market analysis podcast! Glad it’s finally here!