Vietnam: The Economy of the Next Decade?

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Vietnam is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world today. In 2019 its growth was only beaten out by a selection of far smaller and far more unstable national economies.

With a huge and very hardworking population not to mention a powerful ally to it’s north this could be the country to watch out for in the next 10 years.

But this success is by no means guaranteed. As with many other nations in the Southeast Asian region, it has many hurdles it needs to deal with to become a fair dinkum developed economy.

The middle-income trap, global trade hostilities, and an increasingly competitive global market for manufacturing.

Oh and if all of this wasn’t enough let's not forget a global pandemic and ensuing economic crisis to really spice up this obstacle course on their journey to success.

All of these factors make Vietnam a fascinating country to explore and use as a case study for some very intriguing economic questions.

Foremost amongst these is a challenge to the assumption that all nations can become developed economies, so long as they embrace industry, and free trade and free markets.

So,

What has been behind Vietnam’s Economic Growth?

What will the impacts of 2020 do to this growth?

And perhaps most importantly

How will this nation break into the Developed Nations club?

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[Feendog]

I was in vietnam 6 years ago, they are some of the nicest friendliest people I've met in the world who were confident, striving for further education and career driven. Without a doubt their economy growing well makes sense and I really hope they become the next big asian economy because they deserve it. We had two Veterans visiting for the first time since the war on a tour, turned out the guide lived in the same area where they were fighting and they shared bizarrely similar specific events. It was a very emotional situation mainly for the American guys who not only felt bad for what had happened there but were still clearly affected by the war itself. What amazed me that the Vietnamese guide said in response to a question about Vietnamese sentiment towards Americans, 'in vietnam we don't hold grudges and we are happy that the war is over, we can all move forward and become friends and look forward to the future'. That's a powerful cultural psychology in an age of victimisation and division. Looking forward to the growth of Vietnam in the decades to come and visiting my friends there again one day. 🇦🇺🇻🇳

[thangdomanh]

I'm Vietnamese. Currently studying in foreign trade university in Vietnam.This video is really good and i love how you reasreach this.

[YuKnoWh]

Weird calling China their ally. I was in Vietnam last year (i loved it) and i caught quite a lot of negative comments about China, and Chinas attempt to take over Vietnams exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. They were much more friendly to Americans and seemed to have mostly forgotten about the US-Vietnamese war in an emotional sense. I don't know if we could call China an ally since they are stealing Vietnamese ocean territory. This is the only country I've ever visited outside of the US that I've ever thought that I would want to move to. The experience there was exceptional and eveeything was so cheap yet luxuries were readily available that I genuinely felt rich within the country.

[dannyzero]

3:44 "The largest and most logical ally, China."

Me, a Vietnamese and entirely Vietnamese population: **ANGERY**

[raxitkaria]

America is a kind of senior manager who takes the credit of the presentation made by the junior analysts who worked 100 hours a week.

[dannynguyen]

For much of Vietnam's existence, it has been at odds or at war with China minus about 100 years total, I think many Vietnamese and Chinese would disagree with that "ally" characterization, and before anyone brings up "they are large trade partners with each other" well China and the USA are each other's largest trade partner as well and I think we all know how that relationship is going and has been going lol.

[chrono-glitchwaterlily]

Vietnam is the pride and joy of ASEAN. Love from the 🇵🇭

[yogi]

Soon after Doi Moi in the 90's I used to visit Vietnam regularly on business. I was impressed by its smart and industrious people. A friend of mine in HCM City - a Hong Konger - used to manage the country's first building with escalators that attracted many local "tourists". Remembering that, the images of VN today with many tall buildings is nothing less than a shock to me. It reminds of China I first saw in 1989. Beijing was full of run-down grey buildings and bicycles then. But. . . Don't make the mistake of seeing VN as the "next China". China has a huge domestic market. It has more money than anyone else but the USA (only because it can print $). It produced more engineering PhD's than the rest of the world combined. VN on the other hand, depends totally on foreign sources for materials, investment and technology. VN runs a chronic deficit vs. China because much of the raw materials are imported. VN's larger manufacturers are of foreign origin. Samsung Vietnam accounts for 35% of VN's export and 28% of it's GDP. Samsung moved factories from China for VN's cheaper and abundant labor, but they can pack up and move to one of VN's neighbors like Cambodia any time. VN's efforts to attract foreign investments worked well and gave VN a leg up on the competition. Now VN must learn to become self-sufficient. Otherwise, as the competition heats up, there's no guarantee that VN can continue its current trajectory and reach a "developed nation" status any time soon.

[andro]

I wish all the best for Vietnam. My father cheered them on when they battled the USA and China, I will cheer on their economic growth!

[anhkhoanguyen]

As a Vietnamese, I have to disagree with EE about your critisism about Vietnam depending on China. Yes Vietnam depends on China. But like every countries depends on China LOL.
If you check import and export, then China is only the 3rd biggest market we export to, and even if China is the largest exporter to Vietnam, it only contribute 14% of our import.
In term of investment/debt, Japan and South Korea are actually the biggest investors to Vietnam, not China.
I would say Vietnam is even less dependent on China than say, Australia or US.
And certainly, we are less dependent on China than almost all of the developing countries currently.
And no, China is not the ally of Vietnam, yes it was, but ever since the war with China in 1989, right after Vietnam-Cambodia war, we never consider China as an ally. Business partner sure, but ally, well I will consider Japan or Russia as allies of Vietnam instead. Oh, and ASEAN too.
I do agree with your other criticism though, our industry is kinda low-cost manufacturing without any sophisticate. The agriculture isn't systemized and large-scale. It's totally right and we need to diversify it.
Edit: My mistake. The war between China and Vietnam was on 1979, not 1989. And yes that's a war, not a conflict like India-China just now. Ten thousands of deaths for each side at least. There are many minor conflicts happening later until 1990s when Vietnam and China began to solve out the border

[EvoSwatch]

"A powerful ally in the north. China."
Me, as a Southeast Asian:
*Angrily confused significantly*

[theCodyReeder]

Yes, robots will do the low cost labor. 😅

[Aaronschannels]

“Powerful ally to it’s north” unless you mean Russia, I don’t know what you’re talking about.

[MrDragomir]

I've been to Viet Nam half a year ago and I fell in love with the country! I wish all the best to these lovely and hard-working people and I hope to see them continuing to grow and develop. Also, they have dealt so well with the pandemic and they are neighboring China! Really well done!

[randomchannel-pxho]

Just a quick note, while diplomatic relations between the PRC and Vietnam are pretty normal, and they're close trading partners, they are not allies. Due to the Third Indochina War there is still mistrust between the two (Vietnams history also features an endless cycle of being conquered by the Chinese than winning back independence), and the border is highly militarized. The main source of tension today is the South China Sea despite, in which China claims and tries to assert control over nearly all of the waters off of Vietnams coast, which has pushed Vietnam closer to the USA of all nations, despite the history there... Despite having the strict "Three nos" policy, Vietnam has been supportive of the USAs "freedom of navigation" operations and has even allowed US Aircraft Carrier to dock in their ports.

[kumquatsmangoes]

I believe all nations can become developed, just that some nations will be richer than others.

[triciacol]

Biggest mistake in this presentation is China. Vietnam has a long "History" with China (4000 years plus) they coexist in a wary kind of way.

[daviddavis]

I think Vietnam didn’t ally China because China invade Vietnam many *many* times historically, and even once they were both communist, the Chinese invaded again, in the 1980s I believe.
So basically, they were historically rivals, and that wasn’t about to change just because they were both communists.

[tddh]

I'm Vietnamese. China is not VN's ally. Not now, not for the last 2000 years