The Future of the Aircraft Carrier - New Threats, Power Projection & Growing Fleets

Since the second world war, the aircraft carrier has been a dominant symbol of naval might.

Now however, the Aircraft carrier is facing a growing family of new and evolving threats, ranging from anti ship ballistic missiles and hypersonics, to more capable submarines and unmanned systems. Some argue that these threats mean the Carrier may be ready to go the way of the battleship, becoming obsolete.

On the other hand, those same nations perfecting anti-carrier weapons are also investing extensively in new carriers of their own, suggesting they retain value.

In this video I look at carrier evolution, fleets, roles, threats - and the potential future of these extremely expensive platforms.

Patreon:

Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply

I would also like to note I occasionally use terms like Carrier Strike Group and Carrier Task Force interchangeably - while the former has far greater contemporary relevance. Force of habit from historical studies so apologise for any confusion caused

Readings and Sources:
List is abridged as I'm feeling unwell:

Congressional Research Service - China Primer: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)

John Lehmen - Aircraft Carriers—Missions, Sur aft Carriers—Missions, Survivability ability, Size, Cost, Numbers - Naval War College Review

Gerald Ford in Eastern Med

CSIS - The first battle in the next war - Wargaming a Chinese Invasion...

Lieutenant Commander G. B. Vroom (1925) - Strategic Value of the Aircraft Carrier

RAND - Future Aircraft Carrier Options

CRS - Navy Ford (CVN-78) Class Aircraft Carrier
Program: Background and Issues for Congress

Congressional Research Service - China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress

Included reporting on Rapid Dragon:

US Navy force levels - Naval history and heritage command

2021 reporting on naval DEW

TASS reporting on Tsirkon

321 Day carrier deployment

F-76 datasheet

Collins vs USN in 2000

carrier theme park as mentioned

USNI - Need for air superiority and ship killing weapons says Pacific air-forces commander

CRS - China naval modernisation

Reporting on PRC satellite based reconnaissance and tracking capabilities

Older 2013 article on the ASBM kill chain

Report quoting Vice Adm. Jeffrey Trussler on PRC investment in AShM

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Future Of The Aircraft Carrier
00:01:35 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:15 — History
00:08:17 — What Makes A Carrier?
00:13:55 — Global Carrier Forces
00:25:46 — Strategic Power Projection
00:29:44 — Economics
00:39:56 — Vulnerabilities
00:47:52 — Countermeasures & Challenges
00:55:58 — If Not The Carrier, What?
01:04:20 — What Next For The Carrier
01:06:20 — Conclusion
01:06:44 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

Apologies if I sound a bit off this week - have been quite unwell, but I'm hoping my passion for naval force design and history shows through regardless. I made a conscious decision not to clickbait this video as "the end of the carrier" although it probably belongs in that series. It just didn't seem right given the conclusion is probably that the world will have more fleet carrier displacement in service in a decade than it does now. That said, I think the threats discussed (even if uncertain) are very real, as are the challenges CVs and CVNs face if they want to win budget dollars over other, potentially much cheaper and/or more specialised systems.

[EricEngle-fq]

Nimitz: I am 100, 000 ton beast
Also Nimitz: does this phased array radar distruptor make my stern look narrow? Frigate, i'm gonna go for it!

[Mightydoggo]

This guy keeps pumping out high quality content like it´s nothing. You got quite some work ethics there m8.

[daiakunin]

The Kuznetsov doesn't get enough credit for trying to set the record for 'number of times caught fire by a single vessel'. It has truly earned its place in the history books.

Also, get well soon Perun!

[Humorless_Wokescold]

"The human infantryman is comically vulnerable to everything from bullets and blunt force to beer and boredom." Oof. That last half is almost painfully true.

[nobdyspecial]

"Rapid aircraft to submarine conversion" - I LOVE the humour you inject into these very well researched and presented videos.

[Vinzmannn]

You really see how much Perun knows just by looking at his output. Uploading a one hour, no fluff video EVERY WEEK for more than a year is so insanely much information.

[tdb]

It always amazes me that us Aussies have had three aircraft carriers - the HMAS Sydney and HMAS Melbourne from the Majestic class, and the HMAS Vengeance from the Colossus class. Nowadays, it seems like our Gov would baulk at the idea of having such capabilities, I guess because geopolitics and doctine has changed, and we are so closely aligned with the US and UK that it makes more sense for us to support them than spend tens of billions building our own. I guess our helicopter carriers will have to do for now.

[SilentFlatulence]

"That's enough fuel to fill up a Toyota Camry about 80, 000 times, or a Ram 1500 long enough to reach the next gas station"
"...rapid aircraft-to-submarine conversion"
💀

[errorcrj]

The Royal Thai Navy would like to quietly mutter about also being a carrier power with their ex-Harrier-operating, officially helicopter-operating, presently barely sailing mini-carrier.

It is very cute to see a picture of her sailing alongside a US supercarrier.

[michaelbraxton]

I’d like to add my vote of high praise for the superior content. It’s well-organized, clear, persuasive and extremely informative. Even the humor is great. You guys just don’t seem to ever mess up!🎉

[aymonfoxc]

"You can't really do disaster relief with ground-launched tomahawks" - Perun, 2023

Perun always has some novel insight to impart, so we learn something from every video 😉

[alexandrebelinge]

"...one is very expensive the other one spend a lot of time on fire." omg that is gold !!!

[aidanmattson]

I think a common misunderstanding about carrier vulnerability is that while the ocean is large, it also isn’t empty. Knowing something is out there is far easier than knowing that thing is a carrier.

You know what looks a lot like a carrier on radar? A cargo ship. Additionally, Blip Enhancement systems mounted to escorts can create false carriers, directing attacks at less valuable assets.

I always like to characterize it as a game of “Where’s Waldo” except in this case there’s five Waldos only one of which is real and if you aren’t careful either with your snooper or your strike force you may see some irreplaceable losses all against a “Waldo” that isn’t the real one.

This problem was so bad that the Soviets had a policy of visually confirming a carrier after acquiring it on radar. I can’t say the life expectancy of those aircrews was great in the event of a hot war.

Synthetic aperture radar mitigates this as it is harder to deceive with blip enhancement (hence its inclusion on the Tu-22MR) but I wouldn’t be surprised if there are ECM methods that can neutralize it.

[JS-tevj]

I know you couldn't fit everything in, but as many military historians, as well as wartime leaders at the time admitted, the sinking of the Royal Navy's HMS Repulse / Prince of Wales by Japanese Air Power was a turning point - where the future of the battleship was truly considered to be limited - and the aircraft carrier was etched into naval history as the future.

It's insanely ironic, because while Japan was the first ever navy to assemble a carrier strike group (they did this more out of necessity, because they were limited by international treaties preventing them from building more battleships) - they would ultimately turn back to the battleship, wasting a lot of resources building IJN Yamato and Musashi. Arguably the best battleships in the world at the time, yes, but at the same time obsolete.

To add to the irony, by the end of WW2, with all their carriers sunk, and land based air corps decimated, the Japanese would send out their flagships Yamato and Musashi to battle without air cover - where they would meet the very same fate as Repulse, and Prince of Wales.

[WWFanatic]

I love Perun's way with words. Things like "very rapid kinetically induced adjustment" is just the perfect euphemism for what two US carriers can do to you...

[backattackjack]

This channel is criminally underrated. Amazing work mate

[paulg]

Probably the most stimulating channel on YT that is devoted to defense-related topics.

[theflanman]

Your videos are second to none. Your subtle use of dry humor and the technical information delivered so smoothly are truly amazing. Thank you for giving such an in depth look into many military and geopolitical topics to hundreds of thousands of people.

[Daniel-iemt]

Perun, would you ever consider historical episodes? Your area of expertise surrounding the Vietnam War, Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, Korean war…