Wagner's Attempted Coup: What The Hell Just Happened

Over the weekend it looked for a moment like Putin might be toppled, with the Wagner mercenary group headed to Moscow with the intent of giving Russia a new President. That's not quite how it played out though - so we explain what really happened

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[matthewparker]

Prigozhin may have received legal immunitity, but he'll probably be wary of standing to close to windows for a while.

[onemoreminute]

It's felt like an Oblivion NPC interaction:

"You treat me bad, I attack you!"
"I condemn you as traitor!"
"Okay, I give up"
"Understandable, have a nice day in Belarus"
"🤓👍"

[TheEDFLegacy]

One hugely important point that you missed is significance of that one jet they shot down; it wasn't your average Air Force jet - it was an exceptionally rare IL-18 variant (the IL-22M), which is a specialized command and control aircraft used for communication and observation. From what I've heard, they only had 12 in their entire inventory, and of those, only five have been modernized and are in active service. This airframe was one of those five, and its entire crew of highly trained specialists was killed. And the humanitarian in me knows that all 10 of them knew they were going to die for about a minute and a half while that thing spun to the ground while the pilots were helpless from being able to do anything.

[jamesthomashtunkyaw]

As a Burmese, this was the only good new for us today. Russia's internal unrest unsettled their junta terrorists. There were reports that Putin opted to send Wagner to help Min Aung Hlaing, but now it seems uncertain for the terrorists in charge of our country.

[ellienixon]

I love that people think this was some kind of 4D chess move from Putin to get Wagner outside Kiev
Like, there are FAR easier ways to do that without risking political upheaval

[ARIXANDRE]

The weirdest parts are Prigozhin selling out his men and going for exile in Putin's backyard Belarus. 🤔

[davidbowie]

Fun fact: Wagner mercenaries are fed and paid better than regular Russian soldiers. Hence Russian troops did not attempt to end it.

[RDSyafriyar]

"I have never been a chef; I used to be a restaurateur and quite successful. I can't cook myself. They should have just come up with 'Putin's butcher' instead." - Yevgeny Prigozhin 🇷🇺

[goinggoinggone]

Prigozhin will likely be diagnosed with a new Covid variant that is typified by coughing, sneezing, headaches and "falling out of a window".

[ermin]

2021: Russian army is second best army in the world
2022: Russian army is second best army in Ukraine
2023: Russian army is second best army in Russia

[DarkHarlequin]

The EXHAUSTED tone in the beginning 😄Clearly the tone of someone who had to follow this entire mess throughout the weekend knowing that on monday people expect them to make a semi coherent video explaining WTF happened 😅😁

[prossnip]

Funny thing, Prigo hasn't been heard of since Sunday. This is a man that really likes to talk. Now i'm not saying the car he was seen leaving in from Rostov was flipped over, set on fire and rocket launched into the stratosphere only to be covered in pitch, set on fire again and chucked in the nearest river. What i am saying is that there isn't a 0 percent chance of that happening

[lacoma]

There are a lot of smaller tidbits that have been missed out here: firstly, before the turnaround the Kremlin seized 2 billion in Wagner wages found in multiple vans, also Prig exaggerated about having 25, 000 men, as the real number is reportedly closer to 8, 000. Similarly UK security intel believes that the Kremlin threatened the families of high-ranking Wagner members. All of these things made prig's coup a bit of an empty threat. Though still a threat, hence the negotiation.

As for the purpose of prigozhin's exile and Wagner's absorption, there has been less evidence and speculation, so I can only really list what I've heard:

-Prig is genuinely in exile in Belarus, where lukashenko can keep an eye on him and far away from Putin.
-Prig is going to replace lukashenko (I personally find this unlikely, Putin wouldn't give Prig more power after an attempted coup)
-Prig is going to mount a new Belarusian offensive (I find this even more unlikely considering Wagner is now being absorbed)
-Prig requested the exile specifically, probably for safety.

[killertortoise]

I kinda love the fact that Putin immediately peaced out when they were within 200km of Moscow, meanwhile Zelenskyy stayed put and was out on the streets while Russia was within city limits.

That said all this is very strange, I can't see why he would back down when he was a stone's throw away from taking the cremlin, all seems very strange to me.

[dannyzero]

I thought fragmenting your military is bad enough from a strategic point of view but this is a new low on why fragmented militaries don't do so well when each branch has their own interest, priorities, power and means to exercise that power against the head of state.

[vishnusharma]

i was following the series of events live, safe to say it was the wildest 24 hours of the war yet

[IronpenWorldbuilding]

I’m going to bet that he gave up because most oligarchs didn’t side with him. Russia is run by a few ultra rich businessmen and you need their support to revolt successfully.

[Ed-swvf]

I’m from Rostov and I can say it was a highly entertaining weekend 😆 Now city lives as usual like nothing happened. So weird

[zollen]

Zelenskyy: I don't need a ride, I need ammo. Putin: Where is my ride? I am getting out of here.

[nrm]

Ah, the next installment in the “If you give a mouse a cookie” children’s series:

“If you give a lunatic chef his own private army…”