What would happen if China invaded Taiwan? Wargames predict likely outcomes and possible scenarios

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.), senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), discusses wargames hosted by CSIS to simulate what would happen if the U.S. responded to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan

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Government Matters is a multi-platform news program dedicated to providing non-partisan information and analysis to federal managers, contractors and those supporting the federal marketplace. Hosted by Mimi Geerges, the show airs weeknights at 8 and 10:30 on WJLA 24/7 News and Sunday mornings at 10:30 on 7News.

[pitster]

Two carriers is 10, 000 + dead sailors. Each carrier has a crew size of 5000 or more.

[ylu]

An excellent wargame simulation would be adjusting the input parameters in the simulation software until the perceived enemy loses

[sooteekeng]

I guess most news media will close down without talking about China n Taiwan issue.

[evaldocarvalho]

These US aircraft carriers are too easy to be sink

[todaydelta]

Hello GAO LO, this is family's matter

[FreddieMercury]

I'd be curious if China from that point decides on a war of attrition

[RonLWilson]

In regard to asymmetric warfare, another options might be to augment Taiwan's fighter jet s with low cost ultra light aircraft such as gyrocopters.

These could be armed with light weight stand off weapons such as the BAE guidance kit that can be added to 2.75 inch rockets that would give 2-3 miles stand off range but with a high Pk against most ground based tactical targets due to the precision guidance.

The advantage of gyrocopters is that they can take off and land from very small runways and even fields and thus can be dispersed and can be more safely fly at low altitudes in that they do not stall.

And (as gyrocopter marketers say, say gyrocopter can do 90% what a helicopter can do and 10% of the operating cost.

As such they are not very expensive to buy nor maintain and as a comparison a gyrocopter would cost less than a single Javelin missile.

Thus say with the upgrades to carry, launch, and guide the standoff weapon plus other upgrades might bump the cost per gyrocopter to say 500K per aircraft one could still buy 100 aircraft for about 50 million dollars, less than one first line jet fighter.

Also, it is not too difficult to learn to flay a gyrocopter, nothing like learning to fly a front line jet fighter.

Thus even if one lost all 100 in the first week of an invasion that would be like just losing one jet fighter in regard to cost.

Thus this might be a use case that might be worth wargaming to see if such a capability might be of potential value and thus worth further consideration.

[parklilys]

America only bullied small countries and won but has not won wars against relatively sized countries in Asia since 1950s. Korea and Vietnam wars came to mind if you wanted examples. Fighting a war against China with nuclear weapons is not easily comprehensible. We need to talk and promote peace instead of wars.

[waynewilson]

It would be far easier for China to have an army in Taiwan already. A huge force could be disguised as students, workers, athletes etc. China could then takeover Taiwan without shots fired possibly.

[charlesburgoyne-probyn]

China keeps delaying it for the day which never comes

[benjamincapps]

This seems like George soros swamp news channel

[edwingan]

If only they had done this with Ukraine 😂

[justinngambi]

My analysis: if the USA decides to defend Taiwan by only striking from their bases, china will easily invade Taiwan and have it's foot soldiers there. That will guarantee china taking over Taiwan. If the USA gets it's foot soldiers on Taiwan well in advance, china will face two serious defences. On land in Taiwan and from behind that is USA bases and Japan. China's aim I not to destroy Taiwan but take over. So the objective is to walk in and subdue it military. Taiwan can only be defended from Taiwan. From outside, it will be difficult.

[philipcoffman]

That’s the same sources that predicted Ukraine and nato will win. Today is leopard was destroyed with German crew not mercs

[tinytoyboxfilms]

Exercises of this type (at least in the West) significantly buff up enemy forces to give our troops the most demanding scenarios to confront.
However formidable the Chinese military may appear (as said to us by the Chinese themselves), assessments of their true combat capabilities in combat should be taken with a bit of salt.

[byron]

As the former Chairman of CCP Deng Xiaoping has said before Taiwan is an immovable goal and target k!

[muppetyago]

I doubt China would stand much of a chance in 2027. The US have the new AIM-240 missile that can counter the PL-15, not to mention a much smaller RCS on the F-35 compared to the J-16. Yes range is an issue but they do have CV's 2hich can launch at the least 24 F-35's with 4 AIM-240 without pylons. China would struggle with air superiority.

[uwnujqm]

If the PRC breaches the international law of UN CCPR which it signed in 1998 and invades Taiwan, it can no longer stay as a member of UN Security Council. If the UN can neither stop the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nor prevent PRC’s invasion of Taiwan, what is the purpose of the existence of the UN? UN membership fees are money collected from the taxpayers around the world, the pay the taxes to their governments and their governments pay the UN membership fees to UN.

[FarmerDrew]

You know India and the Phillipines would jump in to sneak some punches, even if they didn't get overtly involved.

[changi]

PRC are so good in digging tunnels for their high speed rails, they can dig undersea tunnels right into Taiwan and troops and armour pouring out from their openings in multiple locations across the country. It would be the best trojan horse in surprising the ROC troops expecting a WWII era D-day Normandy style of beach-head in the night. When the Taiwanese people woke up in the morning, they would found their country overtaken. The invasion will be stealthy and well rehearsed and Taiwan will immediately be under the control of PRC. Thereafter, they can lay tracks for their high speed rails to link up with the mainland. What China talked about is not a bridge above waters but under the seabed. Nothing goes to waste. Taiwan will be reunified with the Mainland with minimal shooting. When PLA troops come, they will be dressed in the uniform of the ROC military. They speak the same language. How to tell them apart? Eventually, traffic of goods and people can freely move across both sides. PRC will have complete control over TSMC, ASUS, HTC and other priced industries, not to mention the imperial treasures stored the National Museum at Yang Ming Shan. US, Japan and the rest of the world will watch with shock, feeling absolutely helpless.