Can the Conservative party survive defeat? | FT Film

After its calamitous defeat in July's general election, FT deputy opinion editor Miranda Green asks three of the UK's leading political experts to weigh up the Conservative party's chance of winning again, as volatility and demographics transform the political landscape

#ukpolitics #ukelections2024 #ukelectorate #conservativeparty #demographics #redwall #voters
#rishisunak

[steveholmes]

Graduates are realising that further education no longer lifts them out of the day race.
Back in the days of cheap housing and jobs for life, the degree was followed by marriage, 2.3 children, promotions and comfortable retirement.
Now graduated face insecure employment, relatively poor pay, home ownership out of reach and paying 40% of salary to a landlord.

Graduates are facing similar issues to young non-graduates.

[richardbourn]

A dry, statistician's analysis which misses the point that the Conservatives were the authors of 14 years of worsening living standards, drops in life expectancy, failures across public services, flatlining growth and productivity, and serious deficiencies in probity and conduct among Conservative ministers.

Arguing which pieces of the electorate the Tories can help themselves to is premature when the party has to have some idea of how to actually deliver more than locking in inherited wealth and privilege.

This is why graduates are a problem. The Tories have done everything they can to squeeze the young to benefit the old. Until they stop doing this they can't assume anyone will care to vote for them.

[Gooders]

I’m not Labour, but they have my vote for next ten years. I went to uni 2012 first year of tripled fees. My debt interest outpaces payments and will cost me £77k to pay off. Wages were stagnant when I left uni for 10 years, home ownership was the dominant conversation among my peer group and its entrench unfairness and tories priorities the baby boomers who had all the house wealth and ring fenced thier pensions to year on year beat inflation and wages. Childcare costs are unaffordable I’m paying 2k per month + a morgage which rised by £600 a month because of the tories

They worked against my generation their entire time in office. I won’t vote for them

[Killrballoon]

They tied their entire fortunes to the older generations who, by the inevitable march of time will dwindle in number, meanwhile people who are entering their middle-age now, traditionally the age when people in the UK become more conservative, have been treated with nothing but distain by the Tories over the past 15 years are not going to suddenly change their minds support them. Unless they are willing to change and actually start supporting the under-60s, they will cease to be and their passing will be celebrated.

[shanefrancis]

No mention of nimbyism and the highest housing cost to earnings ratio since Queen Victoria. I'm 33 and nothing short of a free house will make me vote for them.

[radman]

Nice analysis, but missing one crucial element. Tactical voting. The left did it to perfection, the right hardly at all. If the 2019 election was the "Get Brexit Done" election then this one was the "Get the Tories Out" election. Brexit has dealt a near fatal blow to the Tories. Cameron was a fool.

[lonyo]

People left the Tories because they didn't deliver. Not because of what their policies or ideas were, but because of 14 years of failure.

The Tories lost because they failed to achieve anything in 14 years except destruction. Voters on the right/upset about immigration failures went Reform. Voters who have up on the Tories didn't vote. Some people voted Tory.

The Tory vote dropped 50%. The overall vote dropped. Vote share is one picture, raw votes is more relevant.

[TheTeamDavey]

Why is nobody talking about the wildcard … competent government! All this talk about how to get voters back makes me tired, no talk about what they will actually do for these voters to make their lives better. Tories and RefUK are ONLY interested in their own interests and power. I think this is the main distinction between them and every other party.

[Billhook]

In the late 90s and 00s I remember Black Wednesday was still a topic of conversation and reason people weren't voting Conservative. That was a 1 day event in 1992, the Conservatives now have to explain away the last 14 years. Good luck.

[fasteddyuk]

The Lib Dems were positioned to the left of Labour this election, not the centre.

[cinnamon]

i think one crucial missed is the people who have grew up to become graduates are also people who grew up under tory shenanigans, especially during brexit and covid. all people who have grew up to directly see the effects of david camerons & the tories austerity policies. i don't want a continuation of huge public service cuts and privatisation of industries. quite frankly i dont believe labour is to deliver that second part as it is, dissapointingly, they are extremely reluctant to commit to anything like that.

[blank]

As someone who came into voting age just after the brexit referendum... the tories have lost my vote for life and I'm never gonna vote for them. Especially after the debacles that followed. They've shown themselves to flagrantly flout the rules their meant to uphold and clearly to priorities their own self interests over the people they represent. Short of every tory member quitting and new reliable representivies being put in place, they're never getting my vote again. At that point they may as well rebrand to a new non-toxic party.

[HMSPrinceofWales]

Usually I like the FT Films, because they are pretty good at explaining the situation they are covering. But this one just feels like a 25-minute ad read for the Tories. I am aware that the title "Can the Conservative party survive defeat?" is about the future of the Party, but it completely avoids the main reason why people voted anything but the Tories: 14 years in power with a huge drop in living standards in the end.

[keithd]

As a graduate with a high income, I can assure you that I'd rather have working services than low tax and any time the Tories try and push the narrative that low tax is the way to grow the economy I'm going to remind them of what the markets thought of that when Liz Truss tried it.

[domm]

I don’t believe the Tories have ever been on the side of young adults. The current version of the Tory party (ie the Culture War Party) is doomed and I don’t see them recovering for a very long time, if ever.

[simonfive]

There's no way I would vote for the Tories. The lies and incompetence have been astounding. I won't forget the lockdown parties which told us everything we need to know about who they are.

[NatalieLawrence]

FT needs to learn that there is no such thing as the “ethnic” vote. Stop lumping all non-white people into the same bag.

More people of Indian and Nigerian descent will support the Conservatives than those of Caribbean descent or followers of Islam. And those of non-white ethnicity who are more upper- or upper-middle class are more likely to vote Tory than working class.

It would be good to see an episode where your researchers look properly into the diversity of politics amongst different non-ethnic groups.

[OenopionOenopion]

Very optimistic presentation for the Conservative party, which is showing no signs of changing course to a moderate path that rejects culture wars in favor of policies aimed at center right voters. There is very little reason to believe that Conservatives can return to power in four years, and eight years may also be too optimistic. The UK and the electorate will look very different in 2036, and so will the Conservative party, assuming they are still around.

[petsRawesome]

In a FPP two party system, no party ever dies. And that's the whole problem.

[derekmcfadyen]

We also need a media that can be trusted to research and report news not just government mouthpieces