How China plans to take Taiwan without military intervention | Bethany Allen

Bethany Allen, Axios reporter based in Taipei shares what she thinks is the most likely way Xi Jinping will attempt to take Taiwan.

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[qrsx]

There's no way the Taiwanese become part of China without a fight.

[cookiejar]

Most Ukrainians also didn't believe Russia will launch a full scale invasion till the morning the war started. The fact the Taiwanese don't worry about it is not the result of any special insight but IMO rather wishful thinking.

[ionwerks]

Lithuania has shown the way. If more countries grew a pair China couldn't say boo.

[dreinhard]

For someone based in Taipei, one wonders if this girl just lives in a bubble. The Chinese economy is in a very sad state.

[apsmith]

Taiwan is a free Country and CCP has never ruled an inch there. CCP must accept that fact and find better things to do. They could take care of their own people !

[MichaelPetek]

A naval blockade would itself be an act of war.

But Taiwan is likely to have an answer to Chinese warships.

Ukrainian-style sea drones.

[humanonearth]

I don't think she's seen youth unemployment numbers out of China, of course not, they decided to not publish employment data by age suddenly. For absolutely no reason at all... "Special" reduction of data granularity operation. I also don't think she's addressing the demographic numbers either. You can't do anything "a very long time" as she describes with those numbers.

[dangagne]

Great interview. Found Ms. Allen’s insights fascinating and informative. Interviewer also stuck to the subject and asked the type of questions that would fill in the picture for listeners.

[perfectlycontent]

Great interviewee. She's well informed and a very clear speaker.

[szesze-bwfz]

Would these so called "experts" stopped being so naive!!! China has been straight forward about their plan and means to achieve their Taiwan goal since 2013! They say it everyday everywhere and act upon it as well! Get real please!

[joyfulmindstudio]

i appreciate that Ms Allen has a front-row seat to the Taiwan conflict, but all the scenarios she mentioned would trigger action from the US and now, Japan and South Korea, and so are highly improbable. That's especially true for a blockade, which is straight-up an aggressive act of war.

The Ukraine scenario is eerily relevant in this sense. If Xi Jinping sees gaining control of Taiwan as his destiny, just as Putin does with the former Soviet Bloc states, then he is liable to misjudge the combined response of the US and its partners in the region to any effort to take Taiwan against the will of its government and citizens, including starving it into submission through trade embargoes and naval blockades. Such a misjudgment would have a very high price tag. For example, in a naval conflict with the US, China would lose. Years of ruling the region through fear would be flushed down the drain.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly: The US can live without China; but China without access to US markets is a country roiling in chaos, starvation, failures in the banking and housing sectors, and political unrest that would take hold and spread virally, including to Hong Kong and Tibet. It would be the irony of all ironies if Xi Jinping took a sure-to-fail action like a blockade, and that became the undoing of his rule, and possibly that of the Communist Party, too.

[markanderson]

Allen is way off base in her many of her assessments. Yes, China's economy is huge, but it could easily go into major decline, and she does't seem to see this. Not only the debt and real estate crises damaging the economy, but the middle income trap, corrupiton, ambitious military spending, THE DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB, stagflation, etc., etc., all may sink the Chinese economy. Sure it will be huge internally, but I think global investors are already snubbing China because of Xi's policies. And those policies are also killing the Chinese economic boom. It ain't gonna last, it can't.

[ricktasker]

"The West still has a fighting spirit".

[murk]

There is no way the US would allow China to blockade Taiwan. Also, Taiwan exports 70% of the worlds chips and the leaders In advanced chips countries aren’t giving that up.

[cliveashleyhamilton]

The Chinese economy isn't huge though thats the point. It's massively exaggerated. China's real size is barely above India, it isn't even 2nd place

[SilvanaDil]

China is dying -- its population, its economy.

[TheopolisQSmith]

I believe this is about XI’s testicles and legacy. China has to see how this has turned out for Russia. My brother lives there and he says China very much wants to keep the populace relatively happy and mainly quiet. I can’t imagine how a war, long or short, or especially a business collapse will help any of this.

[tayler]

Perhaps if China evolved into a democratic system with a respect for individual freedom and private enterprise, the Taiwanese would be interested in reuniting with the China, and might do so willingly and peacefully.

[gregparrott]

Nice interview. The prospect of China blockading Taiwan does sound like an effective strategy. However, that 'cuts both ways'. Strategists have suggested that if China were to invade Taiwan that the U.S. navy and our allies would blockade China, and that China is heavily dependent on imports of grain, other foods, oil, and trade in general.

[dougpage]

This is a great interview! I would like to see more of this brilliant person.