The Three Reasons the Russia-Ukraine War Hasn't Ended

Eight months have passed since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. A lot has happened over that time, but an end to the war is not one of them. What's holding things up? This video looks at the three big barriers to peace: Ukraine's momentum, uncertainty over Russia's mobilization, and Putin's personal bias.

0:00 The War Is Getting Long
1:27 Ukrainian Momentum
7:21 Uncertainty over Mobilization
11:14 Putin's Political Bias

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

By US Army:

By Ukrinform:

By the President of Ukraine:

[renetanchico]

I watched this war unfold for the last 8 never in my wildest dream that I would witness the complete destruction of a beautiful country that I learned to love and cherished. Live there for years as an exchange student in the beautiful city of Mariupol, where I met my beautiful wife, Adriana. We live in the states but the horror of war that we regularly hear from my wife's relative back home in Mariupol is something that would keep you unsettle most of the days. They said that everything is gone, and they are still hoping that someday normalcy will be back and all the people that move northwest would find their way back home to their beloved place again.

[HakunaMatata-osog]

The three barriers to peace: Putin, Putin, and Putin.

[flioink]

Do not surrender even a millimeter to Ruzzia otherwise we'll be dealing with even bigger mess in no time!
Rewarding terror is the dumbest possible move.

[cet]

William, I just found your channel tonight. I was in US Army Basic training back in February when this happened and had hardly researched the conflict leading me to worry a lot about this conflict since due to lack of knowledge of what really started it. I’ve watched 8 videos of yours so far and having that understanding of what exactly is going on put my mind at ease. I want to thank you for releasing such informative content. Thank you thank you thank you 🙏🏻

[AndreDike]

A masterpiece of an explanation. This is no pro-anybody. He is saying it as he see's it and telling you why he sees it so. You're blessed bro.

[SupremeRTS]

This man loves his moving lines on maps

[livenotonevil]

An immovable force (Ukraine) vs an irrational object

[Lilitha]

I think Russia just feels they need to recoup their losses by gaining land and they refuse to stop the war until they secure the land. While Ukraine simply doesn't want to give it up.

[indranildey]

I'm a student studying in Ukraine...The day the war started i was in my hostel in Kyiv and the conditions were getting worse... Finally me and my friends left Kyiv on 28th Morning went to Lviv and from there we went to Chop border and entered Hungary and from there returned to my country India... It's been 8 months now and the war is still going on...we are having online classes for now and i appreciate my teachers who are taking classes in these war condition...I didn't want to leave Ukraine in this war condition but i had to...I don't want my beautiful homeland to get destroyed and i want this war to end as soon as possible and to get back there and live a normal life like i used to...My future is at stake and so is my Ukraine...And i know we will win this war... СЛАВА УКРАЇНІ 🇺🇦❤️

[jakehogan]

I’ve been watching this war unfold since I was 14 as of 2014 and it’s so interesting to really see it unfold since the “little green men” and it’s incredible too see it unfold in real time since then.

[Gilder-von-Schattenkreuz]

The Reason is actually rather Simple.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine can afford Losing this War. You pay too much Attention to the War itself and the Power Balance and Bargains there.
But the Big Picture is different.

For Ukraine. The Acceptable Line is basicly the Borders from 2013 and there is no Negotiation of that.
While for Russia now the Acceptable Line is basicly the Regions they Annexed and there is no Negotiation of that either.

Which means the Only Peace Deals Acceptable to Russia is actually behind Ukranian Lines right now.
And anything below that basicly means Russia Lost this War. And this is Devastating. It might Lead to Civil War or Secession of other Russian Territories.
Or Incursions by other Powers like China, Georgia, Azerbaijan etc.
Even right now its already Threatening to lose Russia Control over former Soviet States so far closely dependent on Russia like Kazakstahn or Belarus. Both of which are gaining more Independence right now.
As such Russia cannot Allow anything below this. Because it would mean Russian Territory has been Ceded to another Country over a Defeat in a War.
Thats also the Message Russia Send when it Annexed these Territories.
This was to tell the West that Russia wants this Territory and that this is the Territory Russia will need to get before it is willing to Stop this War.

Meanwhile on Ukranian Side. With all the Warcrimes, Mass Graves and Deportations etc happening and Published.
For Ukraine leaving even a Single Square Mile of Ukranian Territory under Russian Occupation is a Defeat in this War and is therefore Unacceptable.
Just like for Russia. It would risk Civil War inside Ukraine. Terrorism to Free the Territories would Rise even without Ukraine wanting it to.
And Ultimately War would just not Stop because Ukranian Fighters would not Obey the Orders to Stop knowing that over there in whatever Territory Russia still holds. Ukranians are Murdered and Deported into Russia.
Meaning that Ukraine cannot Allow anything to be Ceded to Russia. Because it would effectively mean that Ukraine will soon Fall Apart either Restarting the War and now not getting Support of the West because it broke the Peace. Or because it Prevents the Restarting of the War by Fighting its own Forces in a Bloody Civil War while Russia might at any moment then use the chances to Seed more Dissent and possibly even grab more.



Because of this.
This War will not End without one Side being Completely and Utterly Defeated to the Point of Fighting no longer being Possible.

This War will End in 1 out of 2 Ways.

Either Ukraine Pushes Russia all the way out of Ukraine.
After which the War has a Chance to Go Cold.
Russia wont Admit Defeat. But it also wont Force Attacks. Instead like Israel and Palestina it will basicly be a Standoff with Occassional Attacks on each other.
And Maybe after a few Years it will then Cool Off and Russia will Generously Claim to be making Peace to Stop the Deaths.
While of course still claiming it was in the Right all along.

Or Russia somehow Managed to Take either Kiev or Cut into Western Ukraine to Stop Western Weapon Deliveries.
Meaning it manages to completely Conquer the Keys to Ukraine and can Hold them.
Therefore Ukraines Army falling Apart and Ukraine being Defeated.
Soon to be Ruled by a Russian Puppet Regime relying on Russian Troops to Suppress the People there.


Thats the only 2 Options there is right now.

Other Options only become Available if for Example Russia did something that caused Nato to Intervene.
If that Happens the War might end in Complete Russian Defeat after Nato basicly Sweeps Russian Forces and makes clear that if Russia doesnt Surrender they will Sweep all the Way to Moscow. This may lead to WW3 tough. So Nato is trying Hard to not being forced into this. And I assume anything short of a Nuke will not manage to make Nato take part.

[khangphan]

Hello Will, I'm studying game theory for my economics major right now and your game theory perspectives on political science are very interesting. I think you should totally draw out a game tree for all the possible outcome of the war. In my opinion, Ukraine's total victory would mean demise for Putin's regime but not necesarily Russia, but total victory for Russia would mean demise for Ukraine as a whole. The latter outcome would be very unlikely in an invasion unless the current regime is extremely unpopular, this is where Putin miscalculated. He underestimate Ukrainian resistance and the ability of the Ukrainian leadership to rally resistance. The former outcome has more probability to happen given the trend in Russian history. Whenever a war goes unfavorable and in combination with social unrest and economic downturn, the probability for coup, regime change or revolution increase. The Russo-Japanese war ends with the 1905 revolution, WWI for Russia ends with the February and October Revolution and the Soviet Afghan war ends in 1989 and the dissolution of the USSR followed. We all know the results of all these war, bad military performance was usually the nail in the coffin for unpopular regime unable to resolve social unrest and economic downturn in Russian history.

[JoffesThoughts]

I am a simple man. I see a new line-boy video, I click on it.

[corradoscorcelletti]

Dear Mr Spaniel, thanks for your technical war explanations, and thanks for the american English pronunciation training you deliver to me with your calm words. Take care 👍👍👍

[matthiasbauer]

Lots of theory and speculating, yet you forget various equally or more important than the ones mentioned here. Below the two biggest:

1) It's not just an interstate war in quest for a landgrab alone, it's an interstate war where one party, Russia obviously, is trying to erase the culture, language and people it invades themselves. With grueling and deliberate atrocities being committed in that way. Do the research and tell me how many wars with deliberate (cultural) genocide ended without one side being completely defeated and surrendering unconditionally / withdrawing completely. I bet it's not many. That's because in such cases, there is no common ground left to negotiate on. It's a question of survival and in the case of Ukraine, freeing people from being enslaved to a foreign dictatorship, who sees them as yet another conquered satellite people, useful to provide canon fodder for the next wars. There's a reason there was no more negotiating with Hitler after the appeasement policies of the Allies had failed and WWII started. And Ukranian officials as well as many western officials are saying the same thing and are confident in that Ukraine can and should take back everything up to 2014 borders and maybe even Crimea. Sanna Marin, Olaf Scholz, Macron, Biden etc – they have all uttered phrases to the tone of "the way for the war to end, is for Russia to leave Ukraine and return to within their own borders", which in this case is nearest form of complete surrender. I think it's not impossible, but very hard to reach a negotiational end to this war as long as Putin and his henchmen are in power.

2) NATO / The USA have smelt blood. They know this is a longterm serious rivalry like in the cold war that has been restarted with this. The deep cesura of this can be seen best in Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse, where an unprecedented and complete reversal has taken place in military and energy politics. None of the new plans for their and Europe's future includes Russia anymore, everything is planned so that Europe becomes independent of russian energy (transitioning to hydrogen etc. so no future return to Russian energy – even if possible – is necessary anymore) and militarily is able to defeat Russia if necessary. That means they have every interest for the inevitable repeat collapse of Russia (just like in the 90s) to happen way faster this time and not have it drawn out over decades, because while they can become independent of them energy-wise, that takes time, and they still prefer to get some of the cheaper than elsewhere minerals etc. that are found in the vast russian landscape. Also a collapsed and maybe even splintered (into further independent nation states) and smaller Russia would weaken the geopolitcal status of China significantly. For example, no more hopes of establishing their own dollar alternative with that and taking over global leadership from the USA. In the same vein: the faster Russia collapses (and that's not an if but a when), the faster the western powers can focus on keeping China in check. Watch any high ranking intelligence officer's / geopolitical strategist's interviews as well as official communiques from NATO summits and you will see that despite the war in Ukraine, they still see China as the biggest geopolitical foe of this century and the biggest threat to western democracies and the international rule based order. Russia is just a small, pesky nuisance ... a pimple that needs to be popped compared to the threats that China poses. So to conclude this point: the western powers have every reason to inflict maximum damage to Russia and support Ukraine to take back all their territory bc it will speed up the decay and collapse of the Putin Regime, which will definitely result in internal turmoil and combined with the war losses in military power and the economic damage takes Russia (probably for good) out as a threat and as a global power. I think a reversal back to them promoting negotiations instead of complete Ukranian victory would only be plausible if Russia managed to make very major gains through a new offensive powered by mobilized canon fodder OR if the war drags on in a stalemate from now on further until the winter of 2023.

And also, it's not maybe but 100% a mixture of reason why the war continues. Unlike this superficial analysis video, conflicts like this most of the time have various interacting and fluid motivations at stake. That's why a historian for example would never make an analysis of the "Zeitgeist" or "Zeitgeschichte" until at least some 20-30 years have passed since ... you just can't tell until afterwards, and even then in many cases you can't because you lack reliable sources.

So all in all I give this analysis video a 3/10. Some insight there, granted. But mostly just superficial textbook diplomacy and history understanding flavored with a lot of speculation.

[gisterme]

There's only one reason that this war hasn't ended. That reason hasn't changed since 2014 when Russia invades and Annexed Crimea. The Russian invaders have not yet withdrawn from the territory of Ukraine. When they do, the war will end.

[nocap]

It's like we never know if or already have we gone past halfway especially when and how the end is uncertain.

[fintux]

I also think there's a hefty amount of sunk cost fallacy at play on the Russian side. It is kind of covered by the points brought up here, but not completely as a specific item.

[youuuuuuuuuuutube]

War hasn't ended because Ukraine has not yet retaken all its territories including Crimea. Then, it will end.
At some point in the video, it says that Ukraine just needs to stay alive, and wait for Russia to destroy itself, I agree with this. Right now, Russia is losing more and more as days go by, whereas Ukraine is losing relatively much less.

[swisstroll]

If Putin loses, he is done. It is an existential question for him. If Ukraine loses any territory, Russia will just come back later. That is an existential question for Ukraine, and probably also Poland, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, and maybe much more of Europe. So the war is not simply about what each side can expect to achieve. It may continue until one side is exhausted.