The Truth Behind The 2024 Housing Crash (Fraud Warning)

To get to the bottom of any crash what you need to look at is actually pretty simple. You see while economists, experts, YouTubers, authors, and bloggers all like to make complicated predictions regarding the real estate market, what it all really boils down to is inventory. How many houses are for sale? This simple fact is the ultimate driver for figuring out whether or not a crash can unfold. To understand what it takes, we can look at some recent history and then compare it to what is happening right now.

The Paper By John Griffin
Ten Years of Evidence: Was Fraud a Force in the Financial Crisis?

Patrick Bet David Interview With Michael Cox

[austinbar]

In the USA, individuals living in cars due to partial homelessness result from a complex interplay of factors. High housing costs relative to income, stagnant wages, and income inequality drive this issue. Job loss, weak social support, medical expenses, evictions, and lack of affordable housing also contribute, while systemic problems and inadequate policies further perpetuate the phenomenon.

[slacktronic]

It's an affordability crisis. "New Normal" should never be something we should settle for.

[ryukirito]

I don’t know how this is sustainable. I make $100k/year and I can’t buy a home without the mortgage alone taking up 40% of my monthly income

[kennypowers]

This is insane. Inventory is skyrocketing. The consumer is dead and so is the economy. The idea the economy is fine is a joke. Inflation will continue to rise and purchasing power will continue to fall. The market and home prices are so detached from reality there's no such thing as price discovery any more. Median HH income and unemployment is falling in 88% of states. Credit card debt is at ATH, car repos and delinquencies are exploding and the number of small businesses that have been delinquent on loan payments is the highest it's been since 2008. All the while, families are spending, on average, $11, 000 more per year for basic necessities. Once people find out this is all a charade and companies like Zillow, builders and this administration are rigging the numbers to keep things artificially elevated. I'm a builder in TN and everyone knows this idea is nonsense. Not to mention, commercial real estate is crumbling which will have a massive effect on banks willing to loan money. And don't get me started on Florida. Homes on the market are rising. Sharply. With no buyers. Home sales are at their lowest level in 30 years and home values are at least 30% above long term averages. Not to mention the debt market will melt down. But, hey, don't worry about that. Everything is fine

[EBHood]

I think one thing he is missing is an underlying factor that has never happened before. That is, large investors, primarily companies. Hiding there money in real estate like never before and pushing the prices higher than ever. Then they can dictate rent. Now they are not going to sale off so fast too destroy their own investments, but I wonder what happens when we can no longer afford the rent, to buy, it's hard to say. What happens if the company bellies up and is forced to liquidate their assets.

[tradewisetv]

“Inventory” is not the driving factor when lack of buyers offsets the impact inventory could have. If there was only one Ferrari available in the world, and nobody wants to pay the asking price, then its price will decline until someone sees the value.

[cobaltbroker]

I lived through 2008 as a real estate brokerage owner. It was a horrible time. People losing their homes, savings, even suicides. It took everything I had accumulated. I had to start over with two teenagers and go back to work as a nurse. Our lives are different now, but we are content. We live within our means...humbly. There are people who will suffer through this, but it won't be as widespread as people fear. My advise...live as cheaply as you possibly can, then use your savings to make a huge down payment on a modest home. If you do that, you'll be able to go on vacations, buy clothes when you want, and pay cash for a car.

[bms]

When people are forced to pay student loans, bankruptcy goes through the roof due to credit car deliquesce and people have maxed out every credit card they can get ahold of, you will see housing crash.

[todaynottomorrow]

I take your videos as a contrarian indicator. the fact that finally you have given into the fomo, The turn is near.

Thank you!

[matto]

There needs to be an aggressive and swift correction in corporate owned single family homes. The timelines proposed to force divestments is entirely too long. The inventory exists, but the market is being squeezed by these companies that are happy to sit on empty properties to keep the market up. Either tax the shit out of empty homes, or force them to divest their SFH assets.

[some]

So your belief is this unaffordable environment IS sustainable

[fpanadero]

He was FOMO several years ago, then went Crash Bro, now back to FOMO! Lol

[cpzklln]

I’m amazed at how many people do videos on real estate who have really no idea what they are talking about.
I taught economics and statistics in college and was a broker in Florida for 15 years.
While he crash of 2008 took many of us by surprise as so many “experts” said Florida properties would never crash due to so many people moving there it turned out to be the epicenter with many properties dropping 80% or more.
I bought several condos that were $200-300, 000 in ‘06 for under $30, 000 in 2011 or $35 a foot.
Even I could not have predicted that in ‘06.
Anyway the issue today isn’t 2008 but prices have created an asset bubble beyond anything in history and prices have far eclipsed the wages of most people. While cash buyers and the wealthy may be buying we are seeing I believe the top of a parabolic curve with inventory rising.. prices dropping.. Airbnb properties underwater and a country headed to recession.
We may never again see $35 a foot property in most markets but I believe we will see a 20 to 40% decline in many areas of the country.

[Cozc]

Basically if you didn't get a house before 2021 you'll never be able to afford a house short of a lotto win or something

[RedMighty]

In my opinion, the catalyst for a flood of houses on the market will be high unemployment. People are maxed out on credit cards and are draining their savings and investments with late payments and payment defaults on the rise. Families have to cut back spending and this will cause a domino effect in the economy. I work in manufacturing and we have fewer orders which means we are currently building a lot of inventory and will be looking to shut down production and let go of workers until the inventory levels come way down. No job means you have to sell the house. I think the unemployment numbers will be on the rise toward the end of the year and into 2025. High inflation will eventually cause high unemployment. It may take another 6-12 months for us to see the next crash, but it is definitely coming.

[idnotapplicable]

I think people are seriously discounting the potential recession adding to the supply very quickly. Sure many homeowners have a lot in savings and can hold out if the recession is long, but there are plenty of homeowners living paycheck to paycheck and mortgage payment to mortgage payment. Not to mention the real estate investors who will likely be forced to sell if no one is renting their properties because they don't have the funds to do so.

[redstandingby]

A crash is coming, not sure about on a national level but in many... many areas of the country. The prices of homes have become untenable. Especially with the rise of interest rates. Interest rates alone slashed how much I could afford by like 50%. And any home in most areas that are 250k or less are what used to be 100k starter homes. People's income has not and is not keeping pace with inflation and the cost of housing (buy or rent). Hell huge corrections have already started in places like Austin and Phoenix.

[ryukirito]

Pus there are rises in property tax and insurance, so accommodate the rise in home prices. I honestly don’t know how people will keep up with

[jonathantaylor]

The force that will likely cause a housing crash is inflation. This is because yields and the inflation rate are correlated. If the 10 year can manage to hit 5.5% or 6% a housing crash would be a near certainty at that point. The 10 year at 6% would push mortgage rates into the 9''s even for well qualified buyers. And 6% on the 10 year would be a highly attractive alternative to being a landlord. For a housing crash to occur its investors that need to sell. When a person sells their primary residence they add corresponding demand by buying a different home. However an investor could sell 1, 10 or even 1, 000 homes but add zero demand as they are rolling that capital entirely out of the RE sector. Huge money rolled into RE when the 10 year was paying 0.55%.. who wants to make $5, 500 on a million dollars? Thats absurd. But $60, 000 on a million is an entirely different story.

[digitalrevaz]

Won’t be housing dragging down the economy this time like it was in 2007. It will be the opposite scenario.

I worked at Countrywide and Schwab and saw it from the inside.