Economic Outlook and the Future of Interest Rates with Dr. Lacy Hunt

Watch as Barry Habib and Dr. Lacy Hunt discuss the future of interest rates and Lacy's outlook on economic conditions.

Topics of Discussion:

1. The U.S. is headed for a recession in 2023 that will produce a substantial reduction in inflation.

2. Although the Fed's policy rate is likely to move higher, the long-term Treasury yields are in the peak zone and quite possibly have actually already started a cyclical decline.

3. The Fed is confronted with only a Hobson's choice. Failure to contain inflation would result in a stop-and-go pattern in economic growth that would result in a declining standard of living for the majority of Americans who are suffering from the worst cost of living crisis since 1980.

Don't miss this opportunity to receive clear, concise and actionable advice from Barry and Lacy to help your clients make the best financial decisions for their family's future.

About Dr. Lacy Hunt

Dr. Lacy H. Hunt, an internationally known and award-winning economist, is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a firm that manages over $5 billion for pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and others.

Dr. Hunt is the author of two books and numerous articles in leading magazines, periodicals and scholarly journals. Among his articles' publishers are Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor, the Journal of Finance, the Financial Analysts Journal and the Journal of Portfolio Management. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank both published his research.

He has made numerous presentations in all the major financial and economic centers in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and North America. Dr. Hunt has testified before various committees of Congress, including House Ways and Means, Senate Finance and Senate Banking.

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[TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Brilliant analysis. Thank you for hosting Dr. Lacy Hunt!

[mightymuchhala]

Dr. Lacy Hunt is a god level candidate for Treasury Sec or Chair of Fed! Also, so good to see him smiling and laughing during the interview. Superb! Thank you!

[Elaw]

Great info & awesome to see rates coming down soon as Barry has forecasted for quite some time now.

[WWHomes]

Per MBS Highway, some segment highlights:

[00:03:38] History of the Fed with Paul Volcker.

[00:07:51] Comparing Jerome Powell to Paul Volcker on inflation and the role of money.

[00:10:00] M2 and ODL and why they matter.

[00:17:01] History and outlook of total reserves.

[00:18:13] The worst cost of living increase since the 1980s.

[00:19:55] Personal income.

[00:20:28] Personal savings rate.

[00:23:05] Pre-recessionary indicators.

[00:23:26] Manufacturing at recessionary levels.

[00:26:46] NBER recessionary indicators and a breakdown on employment data.

[00:34:08] Real average of GDP and GDI – confirmation that the economy is in stationary mode.

[00:34:50] Productivity – a good thing for inflation but a sign of layoffs.

[00:36:23] Important leading economic indicator – yield spread.

[00:38:08] What’s happening with exports.

[00:38:44] The weakness of the dollar and what it means for inflation.

[00:40:20] Lacy’s recession forecast.

[00:41:54] The side effects of debt levels.

[00:42:34] Long-term Treasury rates.

[00:46:10] Lacy’s Q1 and Q2 inflation forecast and what it means for the 10-year Treasury yield.

[00:49:51] The future of mortgage rates and housing.

[00:54:00] The headwinds of quantitative tightening and high debt.

[01:02:56] Is there a risk the Fed does too much or too little?

[01:06:44] Housing price versus housing activity recession.

[timm]

Please Dr. Hunt keep physically exercising, keep that mind rolling for as long as possible we need you desperately...(I'm a millennial)

[roym]

Has anybody got a link to more information on the ODL that lacy speaks about

[patricktheut]

as for analytics, just ask an expert in process control and instrumentation. we had that solved 20 years ago.

[josephlee]

I heard good friend like fifty times. We know your good friends but you guys lay it on thick . Lol