JPMorgan's recession outlook: Here's what to know

Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan chief economist and managing director, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the likelihood of a U.S. or global recession, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.

[Kaustavpatell]

Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.

[ervinmurray]

Transfer of wealth usually occur during market crash, so the more stocks drop, the more I buy. Meanwhile I'm just focused on making better investments and earning more as recession fear increases, apparently there are strategies to 3x gains in this present market cos I read of someone that pulled a profit of $350k within 6months, and it would really help if you could make a video covering these strategies.

[dulce-wg]

What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.

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[Reuben-wf]

As an investing enthusiast, I often wonder how top level investors are able to become millionaires off investing. . I’ve been sitting on over $545K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy into stocks or do I wait for another opportunity?

[seano]

It doesn't matter what their outlook is. Next week someone at jp morgan will say the complete opposite.

[Cynthia-mmcv]

Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.

[rickhayes-ohzm]

quantitative is a fancy word for inflation

[RodneyRooker]

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Victoria Wiezorek.

[hongkong]

I think JPMorgan has 35% right on that.

[josephjacobs]

How about Government 35 trillion debt ??

[bobbyward]

Most major banks dont see a recession coming. Looking back at old articles you will see that the majority of banks have positive outlooks for the economy when in hindsight the NBER backdates the recession to when they were saying the exonomy was good

[Cynthia-mmcv]

Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.

[chrisadams]

Funny I can remember JP Morgan saying 80% chance of recession the last year they don't know

[KyleFromSouthParkCA]

The govt should put money into the electrical grid

[RaniVeluNachar-kxlu]

I have been praying for a Normalizing of Interest rates since February of 2021. Like Larry Sommers, I felt that the Fed was too slow in Normalizing rates. And sure enough, so did the Fed...eventually. in fact about 9 months later.

So let's Slowly Normalize Rates but 100 BP's?

I am probably ok with a 50 basis points cut in November. And maybe another 25 Basis Points next year May. That is not too much or too little. Just right.

[stackchn]

Main St is already in recession paying its 29% credit cards 💳, $700 car 🚙 payments and 🏡 housing costs up 30% since '19. The debt bubble is bursting...

[soniajames-tnmp]

Great video, The first $100, 000 invested was amazing. But when you hit $300, 000 it’s like smashing the glass ceiling! I cried.

[prof.morarty]

Does there ever come a point where we decide we need a recession? or do the coke addled bankers and policy makers only understand "number go up"?

Sometimes to get from where you are to where you need to be you have to take a hit. This is true for individuals, true for businesses and true for economies.

[SimonTemplarDude]

So what you're saying is.... There's a chance

[RaniVeluNachar-kxlu]

My question to Mr. Gut Feeling is Mr. Guts let's shorten his name, "What should the Key Fed Funds Rate be now?"

But before that I would ask him "What is current Fed Funds Rate?"

Let's see if he knows that accurately? See he may have a gut feeling, but does he know any facts?

Then how fast and how much would President Guts lower rates? Or would he raise them further?

And of course that often forgotten Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, let's ask him about that too.

How much of these destressed bonds and financial instruments are currently on the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet?

And how would you adjust that composition of the Federal Reserves' Balance Sheet? And how fast would he make that change?

The current federal funds rate is 5.25-5.50%

$8.19 trillion
As of August 14, 2023, the Federal Reserve balance sheet was at $8.19 trillion, bank reserve balances were at $3.22 trillion, and ON RRP facility take-up was at $1.79 trillion. The value of the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has increased significantly overall since 2007, when it stood at roughly 0.9 trillion U.S. dollars. As of July 26, 2023, the Federal Reserve had roughly 8.24 trillion U.S. dollars of assets on its balance sheet. In the latest QE round, the Fed’s balance sheet more than doubled from $4.3 trillion in March 2020 to $8.9 trillion in May 20223.

See? This is probably not a Guts Feeling sort of thing. Especially from a Business man that has more than his share of Bankrupt Businesses. Do you really want someone with TRUMPS level of Fraud in charge of the Federal Reserve Operations and balance sheet?

It' would be like putting El Chapo in charge of the US Depart. of Drug Enforcement.

Maybe Trump would like to do that too? He has some very well thought out ideas, this guy, Mr. Guts Feelings. He is so smart. I can't want for him to open his mouth more.

Every day is like Christmas. TRUMPS just keeps giving us more and more idiocy and hate and bigotry and sexism and racism and elitism. I just can't thank him enough. Life would certainly be boring without TRUMPS and Elon that is for sure.

Maybe in the next cycle. Elon can run with TRUMPS?