Mathematical models to support the COVID-19 response in New South Wales

Experts from the Kirby Institute and School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney explain how applications of mathematical modelling can be used to support policy responses to COVID-19.

19 October 2021

The COVID-19 crisis has brought mathematical modelling to the forefront of health policy making as never before, and led to new approaches and data sources to track and predict the course of the pandemic and its impacts. Modelling teams from UNSW’s School of Population Health and Kirby Institute have worked closely with the Doherty Modelling Consortium nationally, and the Ministry of Health in NSW over the past 18 months to support policy responses. Lead researchers from these teams will present key findings of this work in NSW, including analyses of mobility metrics from Google, Facebook and other sources; the impact of vaccine coverage on transmission; and the role of exposure sites on the spread of infection.

Presenters and discussants will also reflect on the strengths and limitations of modelling approaches in this fast-moving, high-profile context.

Speakers:
- Associate Professor James Wood
- Dr Deborah Cromer
- Dr Nic Rebuli
Discussants:
- Professor James McCaw and Dr Freya Shearer, University of Melbourne and members of Doherty Modelling Consortium
- Professor Andrew Wilson, Director Menzies Centre for Health Policy at University of Sydney and Advisor, Office of the NSW Chief Health Officer
Chair: Professor John Kaldor

0:00 Webinar start
2:50 Introducing A/Prof James Wood
4:11 A/Prof Woof on UNSW modelling inputs to NSW Health and the Delta response
21:45 Dr Deborah Cromer on modelling movement during the current COVID-19 outbreak
42:21 Dr Nic Rebuli on a detailed agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission in Sydney
57:53 Q&A

Opinions expressed in the Kirby Institute Seminar Series are solely those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Kirby Institute or UNSW.