2024 Inverted Yield Curve Update, Recession Odds, Average Inversion Length. Ethan S. Braid, CFA

There have been eight recessions in the last sixty-two years. All eight recessions were preceded by an inverted yield curve. The average duration for the yield curve inversion prior to the last seven recessions was thirteen months. The current yield curve inversion is now fifteen months in duration. Odds are very high we may see a recession in the next twelve months. In this video we discuss what yield curve inversion means and take a close look at each of the last eight yield curve inversions.

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00:00 Intro
00:20 Yield Curve Inversion Definition
03:21 Past Yield Curve Inversions, 73', 78', 80', 89', 00', 06'. 19'
04:30 Average Yield Curve Inversion Duration Until Recession
04:49 Outlier
05:16 Present Yield Curve Inversion
05:46 Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions
06:31 Why is This Time Different?
07:05 Recalling 2000 and 2007 Soft Landing Predictions