The Yield Curve is Un-Inverting (Stocks Crash Every Time)

TIMECODES
0:00 Intro
0:34 the Yield Curve is Currently Inverted
1:51 This Typically Indicates a Recession
4:13 There's 2 Types of UnInverting Yield Curves
6:38 Looking at All Treasury Bonds
8:24 Bull vs Bear Steepener
12:26 How Yield Curves Correlate to Stocks
14:58 It Pays to Be Prepared

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[piotrjasielski]

Good you finally caught up with what I was telling you when the yield curve inverted - that the signal for imminent recession is not the inversion but the reversal of the inversion. So many YT channels panicked when the inversion happened, repeating the misinformation, but it was actually a signal for the last leg up.

[elchapitodeguerrerofans]

Now it's a lot more different. No free money and layoffs piling up. Ladies and Gentlemen, adjust your seatbelts because this rough ride is bout to start.

[toddeckel]

Two years later and I'm still waiting.

[TonyStuckless-ipvj]

Excellent analysis. Fortunately for us this man takes the time to explain developments to anyone who will listen.

[Anders]

One expert said that the yen carry trade unwind could continue into 2025. If the Fed cuts the rate, then the yen carry trade mess likely gets worse! (Stronger yen and less interest rate difference between the yen and the USD.)

[nickdunn]

Just because it SHOULD crash, doesn't mean it WILL. our money managers keep sweeping the debt under the "future rug"

[ryaj]

And the stock market just rallied over lowering inflation raising rate which means the fed is dropping interest rates that will relight inflation and we repeat the 1970s all over again.

[michaelvanatsky]

Good advice to not sell at the time of dis-inversion. Equities do not typically peak until months after the 2/10 spread dis-inverts.

[Dan]

Its not the re-verting but the time between inversion and nominal credit creation slowdown hitting the end of the cantellion effects

[Jagc]

Chill out....if these guys had a crystal ball they would make trillions not YouTube videos. All these content creators prove that our financial system is very complicated and history gives us indicators about what is possible, not good educational resources, but all is at your own risk.... ultimately, debt based financial systems eventually go boom boom!!!

[steveh]

Joe makes an important point 8:53; World wide rates are in a rising cycle, likely similar to the late 1960's where we see a sharp cutting cycle interrupting a hiking cycle then rates rise at a quicker pace from 4% to a high of about 9%. We can expect the same this time.

[c.m.]

Plus you realize the farmers are not getting paid to farm... they are getting paid for NOT farming, (wetlands, wildlife area, etc.)

[MaryMartinezdev]

Thanks for clearly explaining the short and long end of the curves!

[TheContrarianThinker]

Your explanation of the bull/bear steepening is the best I've come across. Made it crystal clear 👍 Thanks, Joe. Will have save that definition.
Look forward to tomorrow. Hopefully, I don't mess up the connection, as I've never done a Zoom/video conference call before. Don't need them, in my trade 😁

[Camperlifeever]

Just listen to Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel and he gave some great historical perspective on markets and the economy. He points out in every year of the past 100 years you can find negative and positive opinions about where the markets were headed. Most important point is know you game i.e. time horizon for investing. Also understand the players in the markets include day traders to institutional investors which from time to time can move markets in strange ways.

[achristianson]

The 1980’s recession has been discussed at great lengths over the past 4 decades …. And it’s been widely agreed that inflation beyond its gdp which weakened the dollar crashed markets . What we have is not bank related like way back when. What we gave is a very expensive deficit, weakening a weak dollar and no way to pay off our debts while simultaneously seeing a shitload of tech disruption causing layoffs .

[El_Soldado_]

Extremely informative, thanks JB! Blessings!

[BillCarrIpswich]

Joe - have you seen a yield curve for MBS? I read somewhere they are a better signal of the market than government debt, but can't find anywhere showing the data

[garymcmillan]

until this morning after you made this video, of course. going back the other way.

[kvince]

If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered." Lowering interest rates will raise interest rates?? Unemployment will raise employment costs?? Please.
I enjoyed the message until the reasoning ended. I do like the ultimate positivity of making money when there is blood in the streets. I think..