This is Getting Worse than the 1929 and 2008 Yield Curve Inversions…

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In this video, we analyze the recent uninversion of the U.S. yield curve, a signal historically linked to upcoming recessions and market downturns. We explore past instances, including 2007, 2000, and even the Great Depression, and discuss the potential implications for today's economy and stock market. With insights into how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy affects the yield curve, we assess whether the current signal is a warning of a looming recession or a whipsaw event, and share our strategic approach to navigating these uncertain times.

DISCLAIMER: This video is for entertainment purposes only. We are not financial advisers, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky; best of luck!

[q]

Once I enter _any_ market, it immediately collapses!
So, until I buy some S&P500 stocks, the market will _never_ collapse!

[-Atif-]

I’ve been waiting for market to drop for 3 years and have totally missed the best of times in market. SMH 😢

[j-dub]

After the curve uninverts and hits positive .5, is when, historically, all hell breaks loose.

[smdutt]

10Y/3mo yield curve is still massively inverted (130bps). The 10Y/2Y briefly un-inverted on 8/28 (by 1bp) which is probably what this is referring to. The 10Y and 2Y are now both at 3.91%. Please get the basic facts straight before publishing.

[SomeUserNameBlahBlah]

August correction was due to the Yen carry over, the bond market reacted. The bond market didn't cause the August dip.

[cvrart]

I don't agree that the 2000's tech bubble bursting triggered the recession. Rather, I would argue that the tightening financial conditions ultimately lead to the bursting of the tech bubble. Therefore, the tech bubble bursting was at best coincident to the recession, and possibly even should be considered a consequence of the tightening financial conditions that set the stage for the recession. I don't agree that a "catalyst" is needed to "trigger" a recession. There are always catalysts all around, but we're not seeing a recession resulting from the war in Ukraine, or the war in Gaza, or etc. What will happen is that, where the next recession occurs, pundits and analysts will be reaching for some superficial narrative to blame as a catalyst for the recession. And, as always, there'll be plenty of things that the blame could be pinned on. Ultimately, the real explanation will be boring old monetary policy and financial conditions, with some lag effects delaying the onset of an official recession.

[jsyk]

1:01 this is not the 10y - 3 months, but the 10y-2y yield curve

[Wtr]

so, now we are at about 700 days of inverted yield curve...

[iVisionSpeedy]

Buy gold. Pray. Hug your family. Wait. Buy the dip. 🎉

[scrambaba]

As soon as there is a shred of doubt that the central banks won’t bail the markets out, that will be the tipping point.

[Numberboyz]

Yep depression coming, with the massive debt bubble we have to we’re in trouble. I honesty think our government will start a major war so we don’t have a civil war at home.

[windsurfar]

The reason why the yield curve has remained inverted much longer than normal WITHOUT seeing a "technical" recession is simple. The Government is deficit spending as if the economy is already in a recession. Actual deficit spending according to DEBTCLOCK is now over $2T this year. That means deficit spending is at 7% of GDP this year, which only happens during recessions. Therefore we are avoiding the "technical" definition of recession the yield curve inversion predicts... because government deficit spending has filled in the gap of decreased corporate and personal spending. LAST GDP print was for 3% annualized growth. That's 3% of 28T roughly, which is real GDP growth of $840B... but government is borrowing and spending $2T this year. IF the government had a balanced budget the US would already be in a very severe recession. The questions are... will this deficit spending cause a rebound in inflation... and what happens if the massive US government debt reaches the point where the buyers of bonds demand a higher rate than the FED wants. That's when it gets interesting! AS long as these 2 events don't occur, you are most likely to see a "melt up" in the stock markets that will be quite impressive as so many are now predicting a serious correction or crash... thats not when they happen... thus the melt up in markets will be impressive until all the bears have been forced to cover and cash on the sidelines has been dumped into the markets... then we can see a serious correction like in 2008, IMHO.

[DonaldWarner-mqiq]

Savings rate is already as bad as 2008 so if we cant admit were in recession now then how bad will this be when we actually fall into one

[chicarbiomed]

Monty Python endless running gag… seems so far away then BAM

[calamityjeff]

Excellent as usual. I'm a happy subscriber ... I like all your videos and explanations. Great. 👍

[sb-znum]

so should I sell all my stocks / etfs? I've been passively putting money into stocks / etfs for the past 2 years and I'm up 12% overall. Maybe best to sell and wait?

[Viewer]

so how much longer is a guess for this rally to continue based on past examples?

[TheBetterVersionOfYou]

What you showed is when the recession occurs, where you have 2 negative quarters of GDP, the TOP occurs 6-8 months BEFORE the recession.

[hafluq]

Along with the AI bubble and rising unemployment, there are many other signals for a recession. And I would like a recession now rather than later because the impact could be much greater than the 1929 crash by postponing.

[maddstaxx]

dont buy overbought equities. everything feels overbought which is why i have hedged many of my positions. im mostly selling very out of the money put options these days. like 100$ nvidia puts and 167$ amazon puts. the premiums arent impressive but a small profit is better than no profit