North Korean Military Capabilities & Strategy - Nukes, Numbers & (bad) Economics

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (AKA North Korea) is perhaps the strangest military power we've ever had a detailed look at on this channel from a defence economic perspective.

It's a nation of extremes - building nuclear weapons and ICBMs while requiring food aid, and fielding one of the world's largest active duty militaries with a population not that different from the likes of Australia.

With the recent signing of a partnership agreement between Pyongyang and Moscow, I thought it was finally time for a more detailed look at the DPRK and the Korean People's army.

Be aware, this is going to be a slightly weird one.

Patreon:

Reading and Sourcing:

Unless otherwise noted, platform and personnel estimates are per MB2022 for consistency with other episodes.

US Defense Intelligence Agency - North Korean Military Power 2021

Foreign Language Publishing House (North Korea), Kim Jong Il Biography

ATP 7-100.2 NORTH KOREAN TACTICS 2020

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - North Korean Nuclear Weapons 2024

Kim Jong Il - The Songun-based revolutionary line is a great revolutionary line of our era and an ever-victorious banner of our revolution - Talk to the Senior Officials of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (2003)

Featured articles or images

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:05 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:43 — The Great Unknowns
00:02:35 — History
00:07:21 — Lesson - The Songun Paradox
00:16:48 — Defining Objectives
00:27:55 — The KPA
00:47:48 — The Air Force
00:53:32 — Naval Component
00:57:31 — Nuclear Program
01:06:07 — The Russia Connection
01:09:25 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

I'm used to reading a lot for these pieces - but I have to admit reading hundreds of pages of DPRK material on how incredible the Kim family are was a weird change of pace. Had a bit of a "powergamer writes a background story for their OP D&D character" vibe to it, but got there in the end. There is no defence economics lesson in that, I'm just making sense of the hours spent. Hope you enjoy the episode.

[fenx_]

"Now, under present conditions, I'm not sure how deterred many Americans would be with the threatened nuclear destruction of Washington DC. But they would probably be very sad to see anything happen to Seoul or Tokyo"
-Perun 2024

[DorkaliciousAF]

"The great shit-balloon offensive of 2024"

Priceless.

[rhedosaurus]

You forgot to mention how the Soviet Union also directly helped North Korea by sending its best fighter pilots to help combat American fighters. The Americans found this out via downed Mig-15's with dead Russian pilots in them, but kept quiet about it until Russia admitted this in the early 1990's. And even then, many books talked about this before Russia admitted it.

[knpark]

I want to illustrate the situation with two numbers. The entire economic output of North Korea was - according to the South Korean Statistics Bureau - estimated to be 36.2 trillion KRW (or 26 billion USD today) in 2022. In the same year, South Korea allocated 55.2 trillion KRW (or 39.7 billion USD today) to the national defense budget, 2.7% of the country's GDP (according to the World Bank). Just like how South Korea is strapping bunker busters on ballistic missiles to substitute what it can't have, North Korea's nukes is an easy substitute to what it had lost in the 1990s - the ability to compete against South Korea with a conventional military. From here, several hundred kilometers to the south of Pyeongyang, it seems it is possible (if not probable) that North Korea is holding onto those big strategic weapons *because* of their small economy, not despite of it.
North Korea is full of self-contradictions and ironies. They're sending shells to fight Putin's war, but at the same time emergency alert messages on my phone say North Korean shit is falling from the sky. They have resource to make and keep nukes, but they don't have resources to maintain their overseas diplomatic missions to the point where North Korean diplomats are sick of it and defecting to RoK. It is an amazing feat that Perun kept this video this much comprehensible despite the chaotic subject matter.

[jongrho]

I'm an ethnic Korean born in Seoul who became a US citizen in 78. My Dad was born in the North and when the Communists took over he had to flee to the South as his family owned as small Apple orchard and they were shooting any property owners, no matter how small the holdings were. I remember my Dad telling me a story about how Kim Il Sung explained the relationship NK had with both the US and China to his son Kim Jong Il. "The US is the angry wild bear growling at you from across the river. The only reason he doesn't cross over to eat you is the friendly wild bear (China) standing next to you growling back at him. But keep in mind that its still a wild bear. If the bear across the river loses interest in you and wanders away, that friendly bear next to you might remember that its still a wild bear and you would make for a tasty snack. So remember to always keep the US engaged no matter what you have to do so it wanders off." I'm sure Kim Jong Il passsed this story down to his own son, Kim Jong Un.

[malloc]

I can't wait to see the economics of a country without an economy ;)

[Rathmun]

Point of order: NK does not struggle to provide its citizens with _anything._
In order to be struggling, by definition, you have to be _actually trying_ in the first place.

[ulrichbrodowsky]

General: So we are short on resources. Maybe we should focus on just one aspect. Which one should it be? Air? Sea? Mechanized? Infantry? Artillery? Rockets? Nuclear?
Kim Jon Un: Yes

[TemplinInstitute]

31:31 Common mistake, but these figures do not take into account the population of either the Canadian goose or moose, which form the basis of our military strategy (CADGOOMOO)

[Jimmytoesu]

Here’s the economics…. Pulls out a post it note

[findus]

Perun and Covert Cabal video on the same day. Best weekend ever.

[Syndr]

I'm not saying I'm Old, but I remember when they didn't have Nukes.

[davidmushal]

Let’s be honest, Perun - all of your videos are on the longer side, and we absolutely love them.

[jochenkirn]

The closing comment being a perfect summary, and of course, Perun hit the nail on the head with the entire presentation: NK is seriously ridiculous and also ridiculously serious.

[tokul]

29:02 it is three generations of medals. They are wearing medals of their fathers and grandfathers.

[aliancemd]

Iraq also had “big numbers” - after the initial barrage of artillery, the US army was bogged down processing surrendering Iraq soldiers…

[nematic]

As a South Korean I was quite impressed by your assessment of ROK armed forces, and this video on KPA is also very good, really tells me how much effort you spent on researches. One thing I'd like to mention is that North Koreans aren't as brainwashed as some westerners tend to believe - it used to be, and it still is one of the worst cases, but the arrival of digitial age made it very hard to perfectly quarantine information. As you mentioned, activists are sending USB memory sticks to NK, as a viable mean of reaching the mass - let that sink in. There are quite a few people in NK who actually have devices to read them. Executing a poor boy who shared some songs is just a desperate measure to contain the ongoing damage, and it'll probably never work.

[standard-anime-girljpeg]

Omg this sunday is going to be great, Perun Powerpoint while eating a hearty breakfast and I have date later today at a festival. I am so excited :)

[Itachix]

What I like most about NK is that it's practically a lab rat for economic, political and social concepts and theories of development.