US HOUSE PREDICTION | 2024 General Election Forecast (September 2024)

The presidential race is a tossup, and that makes the race for a majority in the United States House of Representatives highly competitive as well.
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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on YouTube, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.
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*Thank you to my channel members!*

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This channel is run solely by Ryan Gest, a student at The George Washington University's School of Media and Public Affairs, and an elections data science fellow at Decision Desk HQ.
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[Gators-yofk]

The accuracy of this man’s mouse clicks with some of those real small districts is very impressive

[aaravnovids]

Respect for you Ryan for filling out a forecast of 435 representatives

[masonhaggerty]

I think Pennsylvania's 7th and 8th district can flip. They keep trending right.

[PolitikPolitik-fhqc]

We really need a sweep in november to be able to make good changes on the country

[isabelitacurtiss]

No OT tax is one of the best come-ons....don't forget to vote

[Trumpsterfl]

How could it be this close. Maybe people have more money than I think. Shocking!!

[pauwilliams]

Make the news honest again by boycotting ABC news.

[bucky]

NY-17 is staying red, it’s trending right and Mondaire Jones is just a trash candidate. Lawler is a very popular incumbent against such a weak candidate who has flip-flopped on about every issue.

[mm]

Have you lightened the tilt colors slightly? It's hard to tell them apart from the grey of no rating even when the grey and tilt colors are side-by-side. Perhaps make no-rating closer to a tan color with a bit or yellow to add to the contrast?

Kind of surprised about Maine's 2nd being int he tossup category. What's up with that?

[MorganSharp_stolenlives]

Thank you for all of your work and time on this analysis.

[igorlobkovenko]

You and Red Eagle are the only ones who do house predictions. Thank you, I know it's a lot of races.

[AdamKlownzinger]

Curious what will happen in Marcy Kaptur’s seat. Seems she’s long overdue for a loss and probably would have lost in 2022 had the GOP not nominated a fat rapper with stolen valor.

[frankg]

You don’t hear this enough. But THANK YOU for your non-biased takes. It is so hard to find a channel that doesn’t skew left or right, even if you sound a bit robotic at times 😂 🤖

[insideoutsideupsidedown]

I live in the 3rd district in N.E. Kansas. Reddy will be voted in. Davids did nothing but vote lock step with the Biden/Harris administration. We are tired of that.

[dualscreengrant]

EP is one of my favorite sources for polling updates. He makes some people angry because he doesn't tell us what we want to hear. He analyzes the data he finds and calls it down the middle. He was accurate about 2020, with the exception of Georgia, but no one can predict a state where it's almost a tie. There are people who are undecided until the day of the election.

[JackOrtiz-df]

"Beyond Politically Stupid!" to vote Republican! Time to clean House, VOTE BLUE!

[staceylaine]

I find it hard to find your site even though I am subscribed, and all notification is on. Anyone else?

[nathanielscreativecollecti]

I am subscribed, though I wonder what your plans are for after November 10th when they finish "counting" the votes.

[josephfo]

You should have a 50 % subscription rate ! I think if you show your face and talked about your statistical background as well as your prediction success on past elections it might help increase your subscribers. See how Denys Davydov and Jake Bro do their Ukraine videos. Especially at the end. Keep up the good work! Also a joint video with either one of them would boost your subscribers. People who closely follow the war also follow your predictions.

Suggest you do an impact analysis of endorsements.
Especially Taylor Swift. Is she actually picking the next president by personally endorsing KH and TW. Was there a Taylor Swift bump?

[aaronainairetv]

Me-02 is a real hard one to crack. Maine loves splitting their ticket, and Golden has only one one time before RCV. In '22 he lost the first round, so if Trump proves that people in ME-02 dont really like him, then it'll probably hold D. In 2016 and then 2020, the house vote shifted to the left. Meanwhile in the midterms of 18 and 22, it has shifted back to the right. It all comes down to Theriault's ground game.