Neil Howe On Coronavirus Outlook & Its Impact On The Global Economy

COVID-19 has now spread to 110 countries in every continent except Antarctica. The number of cases outside of China continues to double every four days while political leaders declare emergencies, global equities plunge, and volatility and risk premia soar.

Is this now a pandemic?
What's actually happening in China?
How should we think about the timing of the epidemic, the ultimate death toll, the policy response, and its impact on the real global economy?
Join Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe as he analyzes the impact of COVID-19 and takes questions from the audience.

[RoyFlush]

37:42 for "How do you think this fits into the Fourth Turning narrative?"

[nicolasallen]

It's gonna get much worse before it gets better.

[stp]

The Fourth Turning has afforded Howe the amazing ability to predict things with incredible accuracy. He's a national treasure as far as I'm concerned.

[KP-ddci]

What's scarier than COVID- 19 is the annoying disclaimer at the beginning.

[karen-leelamb]

This is not true. During the 1918 flu, more people died in the 2nd and third way then the first. It did not get milder, it got stronger. Read John Barry's book on the 1918 flu pandemic. Also, cases now showing from Hong Kong that recovered patients have long damage.

[dachanist]

Do those vests help mitigate the effects of quad 4?

[pfschuyler]

Howe was wrong (45:00) about the idea of infecting large numbers of people at once. There is no getting over it quickly, that would be a worse outcome even if intentional. That would be disastrous because the numbers of severely sick people would overwhelm our health system, and as a result of that the number of deaths would spike much, much higher (multiples higher, like Iran). From a health standpoint, they are trying to 'flatten the curve' of infection to not overwhelm health systems.

[generations-now]

China only "counts" cases in which symptoms are severe, so the denominator is useless.

[francp]

At 46:18 you go rogue and say something dangerous. If we all got together and gave it everyone, then there would be a demand for hospital beds and ICU rooms in the tens of millions over a 1 month period. Given that the capacity is much smaller, the death toll would rise hugely and age-preferential triage would happen. Millions of retired people >70 would die, but hey, it would save Soc. Sec. for the rest and lower Medicare costs 'bigly'. That would be the consequence of the policy that you propose.

[tibsyy]

Is this going to be able to trigger the pop in the corporate debt sector? Will it pop all the bubbles in the economy? If it lasts longer than 3 months, I believe it will. Such a fall in GDP will be fatal for the economy.

[jackgoldman]

Was this designed as a weapon and released intentionally or by accident? Five day no symptoms and has HIV characteristics? Sounds odd.

[simonbevan]

Trust in the Lord with all your heart lean not on your own understanding in all your ways acknowledge him and he will make your paths straight. Blessings from nz Aotearoa land of the long white cloud ♡

[valeriadelrio-rodriguez]

I love the fourth turning. The more I read the book the more scared i get due to the patterns

[trentbarnes]

Containment is no longer an option, isolate yourself.