Final Oscar Predictions | Below-the-Line Categories

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The 95th Academy Awards are coming up on Sunday, March 12. Here are my FINAL predictions in the twelve below-the-line categories! #academyawards #oscars #oscars2023 #oscarpredictions #brianrowevideo

Written and Produced by Brian Rowe

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Music: Airport Lounge by Kevin MacLeod

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Surprised you are ruling out Elvis in makeup/hair when it’s essentially the favorite. It won the BAFTA and won makeup and hair in separate categories at the makeup and hair guild.

DrAkuIa

Elvis literally is the favorite for makeup and hairstyling. Won both the critics choice and bafta.

alexgeorge

Elvis is the frontrunner for Makeup, I don’t know what you are talking about. It won BAFTA and has the potential best actor winner with it
Great Vid btw❤️

RobertBurns

Am mainly in agreement with you here, Mr. Rowe, especially on the inexplicable omission of "Decision To Leave" and certainly how beautifully Mr. Hoffmeister lensed "TÁR, : As usual, you make a good case for why you're predicting what you're predicting, even in categories that seem to me less likely to prevail than they may appear. It's definitely going to be a fascinating March 12. Thanks for the great content and context.

DavidN

Honestly I think a lot of these are locked up (All Quiet for International, EEAAO for Editing, Babylon for production design, Avatar for visual effects).
Sound is actually tough to call; I’m actually going with All Quiet as an upset. Entertaining video as always!

seankoontz

Everything... should have gotten a Hair and Make Up nomination- Stephanie Hsu's hair in that was amazing.

aagold

My current GoldDerby predictions (as of 11.3):

Best Cinematography:
5. Roger Deakins (Empire of Light)
4. Darius Khondji (Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)
3. Florian Hoffmeister (Tár)
2. Mandy Walker (Elvis)
1. James Friend (All Quiet on the Western Front)
I'm not knowledgable enough to comment on this category so I'll just mention how I'll never stop saying the name of the Bardo cinematographer to the tune of "Chin Cheng Hanji". In all seriousness, I don't see how All Quiet misses this category given its strength in the techs.

Best Costume Design:
5. Shirley Kurata (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
4. Mary Zophers (Babylon)
3. Ruth Carter (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
2. Catherine Martin (Elvis)
1. Jenny Beavan (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris)
This category really baffles me, since no contender besides Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris comes all that close to passing the eye test for me, and yet it's considered the least likely. I'm still gonna bet on it, but I'm well aware that I'm probably gonna be wrong.

Best Editing:
5. Mikkel E. G. Nielsen (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond (Elvis)
3. Monika Willi (Tár)
2. Eddie Hamilton (Top Gun: Maverick)
1. Paul Rogers (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Betting against the editing/sound stat is ballsy but EEAAO just seems undeniable by this point.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
5. Camille Friend and Joel Harlow (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
4. Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová (All Quiet on the Western Front)
3. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine (The Batman)
2. Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti (Elvis)
1. Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley (The Whale)
I assume we all predict this category will coincide with Leading Actor this year, and I happen to predict The Whale for both.

Best Production Design:
5. Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper (All Quiet on the Western Front)
4. Rick Carter and Karen O'Hara (The Fabelmans)
3. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole (Avatar: The Way of Water)
2. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carolino (Babylon)
1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Bev Dunn (Elvis)
Clear toss up between the top 2 here, but the reason I went with Elvis has to do with my pick for the next category.

Best Score:
5. Son Lux (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
4. Volker Bertelmann (All Quiet on the Western Front)
3. Carter Burwell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. John Williams (The Fablemans)
1. Justin Hurwitz (Babylon)
Continuing my previous statement, I just can't see Babylon winning 2 Oscars, and I think this is where they're not gonna miss. As to the other nominees, I actually think each of the nominees has a feasible chance of winning. In particular I believe this is The Fabelmans' best chance of not going home empty-handed, which ultimately I think that movie will.

Best Original Song:
5. Tell it Like a Woman (Applause)
4. This is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
3. Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
2. Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
1. Naatu Naatu (RRR)
This is one where any winner besides Naatu Naatu would shock me.

Best Sound:
5. The Batman
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
1. Top Gun: Maverick
Vroom vroom.

Best Visual Effects (SUPERBET):
5. Top Gun: Maverick
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
2. The Batman
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
I still need someone to explain to me how a movie that prides itself on achieving all of its visuals in-camera and not using any vfx ends up nominated for Visual Effects and NOT for Cinematoraphy. Academy brain go

Best Animated Feature:
5. The Sea Beast
4. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
If I had a 3rd Superbet I'd use it here.

Best Documentary Feature:
5. A House Made of Splinters
4. All That Breathes
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Fire of Love
1. Navalny
If the war in Ukraine could get a worthy song to win the Eurovision for the first time since Heroes, it can and will elevate Navalny to an Oscar win.

Best International Feature (SUPERBET):
5. EO (Poland)
4. Close (Belgium)
3. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
I don't have a mortgage, but if I did I would bet it on this category.

Best Animated Short:
5. The Flying Sailor
4. Ice Merchants
3. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
2. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe it
1. My Year of Dicks
I have them ranked by funniness of the title, and I refuse to change it.

Best Documentary Short:
5. How Do You Measure a Year?
4. Haulout
3. The Martha Mitchell Effect
2. The Elephant Whisperers
1. Stranger at the Gate
As you've seen in the previous category, I have 0 knowledge on shorts, so I'm not gonna say anything about this category and the next.

Best Live-Action Short:
5. Night Ride
4. Ivalu
3. The Red Suitcase
2. An Irish Goodbye
1. Le Pupille

poihpioakarp

You are ignoring the precursors that Elvis won for both makeup and costumes. Which makes it the frontrunner in both of those categories and add to that that Butler is probably winning and that Elvis is a huge box office Film and was nominated for Best picture aka everyone had seen it. Mrs Harris goes to Paris has no chance cause it's the films only nom, zero precursors win and the film won't be seen by all the voters. Cruella was HUGE summer blackbuster and Jenny Beaven won every precursor for it.

antoniodjordjevic

3:12 I can see journalists (HFPA) rewarding a movie about the power of journalism (Argentina, 1985). 🙃

However, for the Oscars Ill put my bet on All Quiet on the Western Front for Best International Film and even as a potential spoiler in Best Picture.

jonathanvelazquezph.d.

I wish I'd have an idea to say that more elaborately ...but your awards content is just the best! Thank you for that.... Makes this strange season even more exciting... 🙂

CK-eijd

Brian, I saw you on the Gold Derby channel.

branagain

I've seen all five of the documentaries and all the beauty and the bloodshed is good, but my favorite is Navalny fwiw. I haven't really been expecting it to win but I noticed it just won something over the weekend so I'm crossing my fingers.

erdbeermund

I hope you're correct about both Babylon victories because it is the best in those categories. I'm just nervous that Hurwitz was screwed out of a deserved nomination for First Man. Plus, there are so many haters of Babylon, that I'm afraid they won't evaluate the category fairly. I really want it to win though.

josephdigristina

@Brian Rowe Video, If you by any chance have access to HBO Max, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed will be released on the streaming service on March 19.

andrewharkin