QuickHit: Will China Invade Taiwan? (Part 1)

Tony Nash is hosting this episode with Marko and Balding sharing what they think the two countries will do. Does China have the capability (and money) to invade Taiwan? If ever, will Taiwan ever retaliate? Can they afford to go to war? And how will the US fit in all these? Will this be another war waiting to happen?

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This QuickHit episode was recorded on January 26, 2021.

Show Notes

1:18 TN: Let’s go through your basic thesis. Chris, what’s your position trying to invade Taiwan? Do you think it’s something that is possible and or likely?

1:37 CB: I would put what we think of as a full-scale invasion, where there’s soldiers and rubber rafts storming the beaches of Taiwan. I think that is relatively unlikely as a scenario.

The reason I say 18 months is Xi will be going up for election of his third term in about 18 months. That is a very important time period.bSo, I do think some type of escalation in the East and South China over the next 18 months is likely.

3:18 TN: Okay. Albert, what do you think?

3:43 AM: Something might happen along those lines. But I don’t think it would be anything very serious. China would need an assurance of a quick and decisive victory if they were to attempt something like that. Obviously, a full-scale invasion is definitely not going to happen.

And most of the CCPs elite are ingrained with Taiwanese companies. So, for them to sit there and disrupt that wealth, I just don’t see it happening.

4:51 TN: We saw over the last week where the Chinese government said that they can now defend itself in its claimed territorial waters. Do we expect that as a warning?

6:29 CB: A lot of this follows a very similar pattern of what we call “salami slicing,” is over the course of a couple years, they just continue to slice away and slice away and slice away, until the last logical step in progression of some type of escalation.
And the reason I disagree is not that I think Albert is wrong. But I think, it’s the wrong type of rationale.

If we look at why is China picking a fight with India in a frozen ground on the Himalayas at 25,000 feet? It makes no sense. I mean there’s little logical reason.

9:36 TN: If we take the Hong Kong scenario and we talk about the salami slicing that Chris talked about. After the umbrella revolution in 2014, intel I was hearing out of China was that the decision was made in Beijing that Hong Kong would lose its status as a global financial center. And it was just a matter of time, right? And we’ve hit that point effectively. Is it possible that can happen with Taiwan?

11:04 AM: Well, of course, it is certainly possible. Do I think it’s possible in the next 18 months? There’s no Chinese build up militarily for Taiwan invasion. If you were to look at every single military offensive project has logistics involved. There’s just none piling up. The United States would see that in satellite images well in advance.

There is a rationale for the Himalayan conflict. It’s the watershed. That’s where I would actually focus in the next 18 months as a real skirmish.

13:02 CB: So, Albert, 70 people I’ve talked to say they actually see the military risks increase significantly to Taiwan based upon hardware that’s getting onboarded in the PLA. Would you share a similar outlook?

13:40 AM: Offensively, it takes seven dollars per one dollar of defense of offensive spending to actually take over. China would win over the long term. But at what cost will the PLA navy take? The Taiwanese defenses are no joke. They’re well equipped to at least hold them off for quite a long time and invading. How would it look like for Xi if the firstborn son of some of these elite families are coming home in body bags?

[CompleteIntelligence]

1:37 Chris Balding’s position on “Will China invade Taiwan?”
3:18 Albert Marko’s position on the issue.
3:43 Most of the CCP’s elite are ingrained with Taiwanese companies.
4:51 Last week, the Chinese government said that they can now defend itself in its claimed territorial waters. Is that a warning?
6:29 Balding’s “salami slicing” approach by China, explained.
9:36 Hong Kong scenario and how the “salami slicing” happened there. Is it possible that can happen with Taiwan?
11:04 There’s no Chinese build up militarily for Taiwan invasion. There is a rationale for the Himalayan conflict. It’s the watershed. That’s where I would actually focus in the next 18 months as a real skirmish.
13:02 Military risks increase significantly to Taiwan based upon hardware that’s getting onboarded in the PLA. Would you (Albert) share a similar outlook?
13:40 It takes seven dollars per one dollar of defense of offensive spending to actually take over. China would win over the long term. But at what cost will the PLA navy take? How would it look like for Xi if the firstborn son of some of these elite families are coming home in body bags?

[feng]

Militarily time is on China side since as current development rate of Navy China will exceed USA capability some day. There is a Chinese saying: wining without war.

So no hurry from China side. China's adversaries instead would really like to provoke though.

China right now only need to maintain status quo and maintain bottom line and wait.

[evertonmt]

Californians, New Yorkers, move to Texas they have beaches and bbq

[yyypkxw]

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