Russia's Hopes of Keeping Crimea, like its Black Sea Fleet, is Sinking

Chuck Pfarrer is one of America's most renowned and respected military authors and analysts. Having himself been a former Squadron Leader of SEAL Team 6, explains why the failure of Russia's attempted attack is indicative of larger, systematic problems within the Russian military. Now, having lost an estimated almost 90% of its soldiers who participated in the initial invasion of Ukraine, Russia is on course to lose Crimea.

Incredibly, Russia's once famous Black Sea Fleet no longer has a presence in the Black Sea. Even more amazing is that a country without much of a Navy, Ukraine, has managed to eject Russia from where it had been perched for centuries. What will come next? It is safe to say that all eyes are now on Crimea.

In this interview with Jason Jay Smart, Chuck Pfarrer explains how the organization of the Russian military so radically differs from that of the US or a NATO countries' military - and why that is a flaw that Moscow will regret as it gets further trapped in the quagmire of its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia, time and again, fails to make significant headway in Ukraine as it tries to face down not only Ukrainian soldiers, but its own Russian troops who are becoming increasingly unwilling to become cannon fodder. As the war progresses, Russian morale will only further fall, leading to larger organizational problems within their faltering military.

Pfarrer, who has advised numerous US national security agencies and is a leading figure in the analysis of the war in Ukraine, is a new special correspondent for the Kyiv Post. Here, he explains why Russia’s losses so far have been disastrous and why an abysmal summer awaits the Kremlin. Russia fundamentally lacks the soldier-scholar model of officer leadership that would allow for it to process why it is losing and to devise solutions. Instead, Russia will continue to just bleed itself dry.

After his service in the US Navy, Pfarrer served public and private sector clients as a military and counter-terrorism contractor and non-proliferation expert. Pfarrer has written extensively on counter-WMD proliferation and gray zone operations. He has written an op-ed for the New York Times and the Knight-Ridder Syndicate and has appeared as a writer and counterterrorism expert on CNN, ABC, MSNBC, Fox, CSPAN, NPR, Voice of America, Al Jazeera, Al Hurra, IPR, and America tonight.

Chuck Pfarrer explains to Jason Smart, both of whom are Special Correspondents for Kyiv Post, why Crimea will be coming home to Ukraine and why Russia is not coming back to the Black Sea.

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
00:12 How Russia's military organization fundamentally differs from the US' or any NATO countries'
03:53 Has Russia really lost almost 87% of its troops since the initial full-scale invasion?
06:55 Russia's Black Sea Fleet Has Been Ejected from the Black Sea
10:35 How has Ukraine's use of drones evolved and changed the war's course?
13:55 It is crucial that Ukraine liberates Crimea
17:35 What strategy would allow Ukraine to liberate Crimea?
19:38 End

[hardtackbeans]

Poor little Pootsie just can't have nice things when he steals territories from others. What a shame . . . LOL!!

[cyclewisconsin]

Chuck Pharrer and Ben Hodges are two of the people that know what they are talking about.

[JohnS-bf]

Good show..keep.it up...driving the trolls crazy😂

[skymaster]

Russia has lost the Black Sea, but it has also lost the fleet 😅

[PandemoniumMeltDown]

Ukraine has one ship, it's Ukraine! All hands on deck!

[DonMacleod-tz]

Could not agree more with this assessment....

[rhondabailey]

Hopes are that Biden wants to leave a legacy of truly helping Ukraine...hopefully get some major land back

[NAFO_MythicPlague]

Slavia Ukraine... Thank you both for your service along with the Sacrifices your families have made. Been saying it for a long time russia will be out of Ukraine before mid 2026. russia simply can't afford to keep fighting. They would have to borrow money from North Korea, and all their other allies that have anything. The second that russia gave back land in their good will gesture is when russia was beaten. 10 years of fighting less than 19% of the country for a country that is supposedly the 2nd best army in the world. You know that if Chuck was bitten by a cobra maybe a week later the cobra would die from trying to bit Chuck. You can tell a man is a total badass because he needs to say nothing. And that is one reason I love the American Military. They are not just soldiers many of them have Masters degree's and higher. They are true warriors and scholars.

[petracastro]

How Russia treats its own soldiers is despicable, contemptuous to the individual. What kind of horror system is this?

[edpenny]

Love you knowledge and insight both of you

[donalddragomatz]

Russian bots are losing their minds, if they had any to begin with.

[whiskeythree]

Kyiv Post with Chuck P --there's hope yet 👌🏼

[davidelliott]

The Russian Navy has been rolled into Sea of Azov. But that’s little more than a flooded beach. Its average depth is just 7 metres (23 feet). Try hiding a submarine in that.

[gregwatkins]

I'm glad you mentioned Ben Hodges first Chuck Ben has said time and again this war started in Crimea and it will end in Crimea Slava Ukraine

[zaphod]

Interesting information, great speaking voice. Thank you.

[stancromer]

Mr. Pfarrer hit the proverbial nail on the head when he stated that Ukraine was the brains of the former USSR, which makes Putin's desire to retake Ukraine all the more understandable. Clearly, the Ukrainians are far better equipped to deal with Russian aggression than the Russians are able to deal with Ukrainian resistance. That's why it's so important to equip them so they can defeat the mighty Russian military machine and set them back decades. Very enlightening discussion.

[APW-ryok]

Time to wrap this up and enforce the 1994 memo Russia signed . Enough is enough the UN voted years ago that’s it…

[marlenfras]

Good reporting. Thank you. Strong Ukraine. Strong NATO.

[SteenLarsen]

Excellent and very interesting interview! Thank you!❤

[DominikGentener]

It is only a matter of time until Russia has to give up Crimea.