Will the Fed Keep Interest Rates Higher for Longer?

Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a two-month low last week, a sign of sustained labor-market strength ahead of Friday’s release of a nonfarm payroll report for August. U.S Treasury yields are rising, with the two-year touching its highest level since 2007. Mortgage rates are also climbing, reaching a two-month high. And the CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 76% probability of a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. At the same time, some data suggest the Fed’s efforts are having their intended effect – that inflation may indeed have been “transitory.” Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the yield market and the phases of the 2021-23 Fed reaction function. Darius thinks we’re in the third phase, where interest rates will stay higher for longer. So, what comes next?

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Will the Fed Keep Interest Rates Higher for Longer?

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[nathanb]

I love Darius!!! Probably top three in the smartest guys on real vision. He called stock/bond correlation when inflation is above 5%. Its like he has every statistic for every time period memorized and on the top of his head along with interpretation for each along with correlations.

[sawdustcrypto]

Darius Dale is one of the smartest dudes in the space. Also, he has some serious Cheshire cat eyes

[kennycarneal]

Is that a Vanderbilt football helmet I see in the background?

[georgegale]

Inflation dissolves the value of debt. Government, consumer, and all others. Plan accordingly.

[shashankrai]

It's funny how much I agree with Darius. My base case for the last three months has been tighter for longer. I do see a breakdown in consumer credit, though. That I don't think is priced in.

[gary-bllu]

I love the RV content but please sort the sound levels out with interviewees before recording. It's hard going to keep listening when things are up and down like this. I'm bailing out half way through this one.

[dave]

the problem is the only way the economy grows now is ever decreasing rates, like the last 40 years. even with this policy GDP growth was relatively stagnant, especially when you consider CPI inflation is perpetually understated and therefore GDP is overstated. So how u can get rates to something like 4% for several years when people are more in debt than ever, so their debt servicing costs are more, while their assets (house) needs to be repriced downward, etc etc etc....I mean, something has to break and relatively quickly.

[guillea]

Hahaha Seize the Memes of Production!!

[mmmartinj]

Darius is an excellent guest with great knowledge as always. Does anybody know whats his hedge fund's YTD return or returns?

[sams]

Demand has not dropped, it would not make sense for the Fed to pivot. Inflation will skyrocket back as soon as the Fed pumps liquidity

[captnhuffy]

DD, thinks the way I do. His message is solid.. but look at the way he lays out the data: That's not as easy to read as most data graphics, BUT it is the precise info needed, parsed out in a way that you can study and see several forces on a single graphic. Most people dumb-down the data way way too much. Not this guy! two thumbs up DD!

[Charles-hyek]

boom 💥 mike drop.. F being married to narrative

[concrescent]

Remember that vid where Darius sincerely hoped we could get the clot shot stuck in as many five-year-old's arms as possible so the economy could get back on track?

[johnshaff]

If an investor ever hits that buy or sell button without conviction, they should not be investing.

[rz]

Darius is always WRONG, he is over optimistic and that is why. A LOSER LOL

[sommi]

❤💛💚💙 FADE THIS GUY . do the EXACT opposite of what he says . only if you want to make money tho