Former CIA Operative Reveals 3 Roots of Terrorism: Wages, Liberty, Language |Amaryllis Fox/Big think

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Amaryllis Fox knows how to spot something 99.999% of people can't spot: acts of terrorism before they happen. She's whittled it down to a near-science just by observing some key elements in local communities and how they tie in to unrest at large. For instance, if there's a lot of hookah bars and madrases in one area there's likely to be conflict between the old and the younger generations, which further down the line can lead to unrest. And something as simple as keeping tabs on the living wage of a border guard—think the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan—could be a good indicator of spotting a potential bribe. With an eye (and a mind) for things like this, Fox shows why these small conditions are indicators of unrest sometimes months and years before they happen in the news.
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AMARYLLIS FOX
Amaryllis Fox is a Former CIA Clandestine Service Officer, writer, television host and peace activist. Before attending university, she traveled to the Thai-Burmese border to volunteer in the Mai Laa refugee camp and worked with the Burmese democracy movement and eventually interviewing Aung San Suu Kyi for the BBC, which landed her a brief stint in Burmese prison at the age of 18, but also resulted in the first radio broadcast from Suu Kyi in almost a year.

In 2002, after extensive field work in East Timor and Bosnia, Amaryllis graduated from Oxford with an honors degree and started graduate work in international security at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. There she developed an algorithm to predict terrorist activity under thesis advisor Dan Byman, a leading thinker on terrorism and US security policy. Asked by the University's CIA Officer in Residence, Dallas Jones, to share the algorithm with the Agency, she began work as a political and terrorism analyst for SE Asia, commuting between Langley and Georgetown to finish her degree with honors. Following graduation, she moved into CIA's Directorate of Operations and deployed as a Clandestine Service officer, focused on counterterrorism and counterproliferation. She served in 16 countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, before leaving government service in 2010.

Following her CIA career in the field, Amaryllis has used her coding abilities and international experience to build projects in support of international development and has covered current events and offered analysis for CNN, National Geographic, al Jazeera, BBC, and other global news outlets. She speaks at events and universities around the world on the topic of peacemaking and her videos about dialogue and nonviolence have been viewed over 120 million times online. She is the co-host of the History Channel series American Ripper and lives in San Francisco, CA, with her daughter Zoë.
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TRANSCRIPT:

Amaryllis Fox: I think one of the really scary and overwhelming things about terrorism can be the idea that it’s this giant boogeyman that is really difficult to comprehend, and is terrifying, and comes along in the night out of nowhere and steals your family members or loved ones away.

And for me my life’s work has really been understanding the small logical puzzle pieces that when taken together create that boogeyman so that you can take it apart into manageable pieces and actually begin to understand what drives these inconceivable actions.

So, when you take this overwhelming boogeyman of terrorism and you begin to tease it apart based on the data and look for patterns that turn up again and again each time a terrorist plot is planned in a different territory throughout the historical data, you begin to notice patterns that might not seem obvious to begin with.

So, things like the percentage beneath livable wage that a border guard gets paid which, of course, gives rise to the possibility of accepting a bribe to let somebody just sneak across the border or hand a package to you.

If that bribe is the difference between being able to feed your kids that month or not it’s a pretty understandable small choice for that individual actor and yet has given rise to perhaps a terrorist act being able to take place even though the law of the territory should have prevented it.

[hardcorejab]

Terrorists are hired and trained like soldiers.

[rhondaweber]

We don't live in a democracy. WTF!?

[XXSomeDudeXX]

These all explain why people are susceptible to recruitment. Conspicuously absent is the main factor: CIA creating and arming these groups, and the US military providing support for them.

[slettobrad]

Former? Nope, this spook is still on the payroll.

[frankdrebiin]

How is the CIA no terrorist organisation. Analyze the data and come back to us.

[gorillaguerillaDK]

Very intelligent and coherent analysis delivered in a very short time - she is clearly talking about terrorism as a product on/from foreign countries, as what leads to terrorism within Iraq etc., but I would love to hear her take on strategies to combat domestic terrorism...

[zekezero]

I would suggest the CIA has a wide-ranging case to answer with regard to the destabilisation of societies not aligned with US interests and the materiel support of factions who later go on to commit terrorism.

[shkotayd]

All i can ask is: Why did they put a laser sight on an AR like that to totally block the peep sight?

[akompsupport]

Border guards not paid enough? That's her example of terror creep. She has a warden mentality. Persons such as this may be re-educated and deprogrammed.

[hsgrain]

Lets see how many excuses I can make up for people using violence/terrorism?

[Ladygothii]

I wonder how many people will listen to the full video before commenting

[jebleshful]

first time heard a big thinker on think big

[Xander]

As always, the comments section is filled with well educated and well thought out ripostes...
</sarcasm>

[alternatefutures]

In reality, she offered only different aspects of 1 root of 'terrorism' (or civil distruption) --> the degree of disparity between/within communities.

The border guard example on exists if the guards feel they make much less than they 'should' (i.e. a disparity in income exists). This is similar with the age demographic, where older people will have more of the wealth, but the youth are less patient in their desire to acqire it. Likewise with the language/internet access which highlights a disparity in development between nations and a disparity in the education of citizens.

Psychologists are well aware that one of the best predictors of violence between groups is the degree of disparity. However, this is clearly a catch 22, since forcing economic equity also results in (is itself) an act of supreme violence by the state. In order to solve this issue, we'd have to solve the very concept of jealousy that's buried in the hearts of so much of the human population.

[thatsamorais]

This is such a ramble, IMO. Each of these aspects affect the momentum of various activities that paint the larger picture of what is happening at the heart of the locations where terrorism is headquartered and grown; I get it. However, it's difficult to follow because it doesn't say directly what conclusion it draws about the weight of these happenings. Just that they have an effect, and all of these factors preceding these circumstances are somewhat to blame for their insufficiency. Meanwhile, it was historically government elitists and militarists who decided in the first place to tamper in everything in these foreign nations with dubious intentions.

[importantname]

The terrorist is the under dog in that they are the weak side - the strong side, the dominant force do not call themselves terrorists.

The major player uses mass force, massive military domination, they impose their will through overwhelming industrial might.

The terrorist is only able to hit with pin pricks, as they are not powerful enough to impose their will.

Both use force, one is big and powerful, the other is the small player, but may actually represent the majority view.

[michaelbabcock]

Maybe I'm an asshole, but I hate the condescension with which people in the intelligence community speak to the public.

[charliem]

Excellent fricken video. Thumbs up from me 👍

[MrSanford]

In the west, terrorism has the same roots as that of attacks on statues and promoting unfruitful relationships ; it's all about the deemphasis on purpose and meaning in societal life and the emphasis on vain acts . And terrorism is a vain act of violence . Although to their credit, I will say that the more acts of terrorism in democracies, the open democracies become to Islam.

So the acts may not be all that vain ....

[SupesMe]

Wow I guess she's right, Help people then they aren't disgruntled and don't become terrorists. But does that work with Religious People? Extremists have that name for a reason