Are Cargo Airlines In Trouble!?

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Are cargo airlines in trouble? It’s really not that long ago that the air cargo industry was booming, with companies building freighters and converting passenger jets to fly cargo, as fast as they could. Both Boeing and Airbus announced NEW freighters, too!

Now, the cargo airlines see a very sudden downturn. Why?? Obviously the pandemic is over, but… is that really all there is to it, and… how are YOU and your travel plans affecting all this?

Stay tuned!
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Below you will find the links to videos and sources used in this episode.

[matthewsjardine]

These are all excellent points.

I have also found that people have already purchased important upgrades during lockdown. People renewed their computers, bought new TVs, etc. These are upgrades that someone normally does once every 5-10 years.

[frank_avtor]

As a pilot for a major Express, Courier, and Logistics company, I can say without any doubt that I (personally) would never consider moving to passenger carrier. Because even if there is a current downturn, this is nothing compared to the massive downturns passenger carriers face regularly. Where I work, "furlough" is a term hardly ever mentioned and not once faced yet.
It is important to note that most ULDs (were cargo is placed to easily load on an aicraft) are built to fit Boeing single aisle aircraft from the 707, 727, 737 and 757 which all have the exact same fuselage crossection and the 767 uses two of these side by side (offset 90°). So Airbus doesn't automatically have a leg up due to wider single aisle aircraft. They'll still use the same ULDs.

[jankrusat]

You'd be surprised how many clothes got shipped by air, even before the pandemic.The fashion industrie wants us to change our clothes four times a year. E.g. in summer they decide on the fall collections. this stuff gets made mostly in low labour cost countries, like China, Vietnam or Bangladesh. From there it has to go to the markets in Europe or North America. Bringing the clothes by ship takes time (up to six to eight weeks from e.g. China or Vietnam to Europe), by then the winter season would almost be over again. So the textiles get shipped by air.
I have been working in the aviation industrie for almost thirty years now, first as a loader in air cargo, then in passenger handling and since about 25 years in aircraft maintenance, often for cargo airlines. In my opinion this fashion stuff is a huge waste of resources.

[bobanob]

Heartening to see a channel that is willing to explain the hidden intricacies of the industry unlike many that just offer the easy clickbait of crashes and near misses. This shows true enthusiasm for a subject.

[Quiquetenax]

1. Cargo volume is declining, but to pre Covid levels, so back to normal.
2. FDX and UPS hired a lot during Covid - FDX hired a lot more pilots
3. UPS has historically been around 3000 pilots, so they offered early retirement settlements to about 190ish captains that qualified. Most were already going to retire within 1 week to 1yr of this voluntary settlement.
4. PSA saw this early UPS retirement as a way to maybe get some pilots. So they offered these retiring UPS captains a hefty sign on bonus to fly for them for about 2-3 yrs with some strings attached (doubt anyone will take it). It’s purely PSA trying to fill pilot seats and not UPS endorsed in any way. This PSA program is only for the VTP Captains retiring from UPS, it’s not for any other UPS pilots.
5. FedEx on the other hand, is not a unified pilot group like UPS. They have union members that want to fatten their retirement checks, members that want high wages, members that want to keep the pension for new hires. Their pilot union is shooting in every direction for their own personal gains. So when FedEx pilot and union member, Pat DiMento saw the PSA deal for retired UPS captains he worked the deal with PSA for any FedEx pilot to go to PSA. He’s getting close to retirement and wants the new contract to benefit him in retirement so the best way for his personal gain is to trim any extra younger pilots off the seniority list - fewer opposing votes. Put this PSA threat out there and try convincing younger pilots to jump ship to American, United, or Delta. It’s a pure insult to FedEx pilots to go to a regional such as PSA, because they are more qualified than who main line American, United, and delta are currently hiring - non of them would go to PSA and try flowing to American, when they could just go direct to American. Really just comes down to contract negotiations
And trying to achieve personal gains.
6. FedEx is in the middle of their contract negotiations now, UPS will be next summer. Historically before our contract negotiations the volume slows down to try making the pilot group sweat. Also historically the cargo slows down before the passenger carriers slow down before a recession. It’s been pretty clear UPS has been proactive in posturing for a major recession for a while and likely why they didn’t go as crazy hiring tons of pilots during Covid like FedEx did.

[southcalder]

My cousins partner is a long haul BA captain, and said it was truly bizarre to be flying passenger aircraft full of cargo during the “event”. He joked that he would entertain himself by continuing to make announcements to the cargo, including mid flight announcements. He was grateful to still be flying as many of his colleagues had been furloughed, but his usual routes (to the far east) were uncomfortable, as they would either fly with a full relief crew for a rapid turnaround without leaving the aircraft, or would be transported in quarantine to an onsite airport hotel and would have their meals dropped off at the door and no ability to leave their room until it was time to return to the aircraft.

“This is your captain speaking. I would like to extend a warm welcome to our boxes of face masks travelling in Club World, and also to those Rapid Antigen Testing Kits travelling with our OneWorld partners.”

[Sevenfeet]

One of my friend’s husband is a cargo pilot for Atlas Air, flying 747-400F and the 747-8F between southern California and China with a stop in Anchorage. Even though he is firmly in middle age, this is a fairly new career for him after flying FA/18s for the US Navy before retiring as a Lt Colonel. I look forward to asking him how the cargo business looks like from where he sits. Also fun fact, the last commercial 747-8F off the assembly line was delivered to Atlas and he gets to fly it.

[avrgrip]

I just talked to a FedEx buddy. He was saying that they are 600 pilots overmanned due to Covid hiring and loads back to pre Covid levels.

[shadowrunner]

I work in the trucking industry in the continental US. We're also seeing a major drop in freight. A few small to medium sized 3pl trucking companies have actually gone bankrupt (most well known: Yellow) due to decreased freight.

It seems the entire logistics industry is in a rough spot.

[megitoro]

It’s worth adding that the new passenger aircraft like the B787 and A350 have incredible cargo capacity in addition to their passenger loads. I flew the B767 pax and freight configurations, in the pax config, we would add 10, 000-15, 000 lbs of freight, in the B787, we regularly add 40, 000-50, 000 lbs of freight. What’s truly amazing is it’s for almost the same fuel burn as the B767.

[firstlt]

As a Cargo pilot during 2020, I can attest to the insane level of flying. It was NAT crossing, followed by minimum rest, followed by crossing, then min rest and on. Yes, the passenger birds are carrying lots of cargo again, but as long as countries keep trying to invade each other the cargo business will do just fine.

[largosgaming]

Great research as always Petter. I worked in global logistics and freight forwarding before deciding to go to flight school, so this video really encompassed what my life has been for the last 3 years. We were charging huge prices for air cargo, and having record sales despite all the chaos in the industry during covid.

[RolfLongreach]

As a truck driver who hauls cargo every day. I wouldn't be happy if my company wanted me to switch to driving a passenger bus. I feel for these cargo pilots. For all of us moving freight land, sea, and air it has been a roller coaster the last few years.

[ericfielding]

Petter did not mention Amazon by name, but the huge growth of Amazon during the pandemic was a big part of the change in the cargo industry.

[frankpinmtl]

Amazon has now supplanted Fedex and UPS as the largest shipper. They are also starting to acquire their own aircraft. Overcapacity plus a rising competitor is a dangerous combination...

[keithverble]

Proud Western Global employee checking in here. I’m pleased to report we are out of Chapter 11, as of three days ago, very much sooner than anyone expected.

[ToddDouglasFox]

Our house was nearly hit by a military plane this summer; it passed over by about 25 feet clearance. The military admitted it was flying under 100 feet but not that it was directly headed into our house. It labored to clear, we were in it at the time and the width of the house windows where we observed this would not have even allowed us to see the plane, let alone able to see the pilots and everything about the outside of the plane. You would have heard about this disaster worldwide had they not just barely made it over. Amazing how military plays coverup. What they don’t know is that there is so much surveillance in the area with clear views that we are going to be able to out them.

[kevino]

Easy to see the weight versus volume issue with e-commerce generated airfreight. Look at all the times you order something online and it arrives in an enormous, comparatively light, box and the actual item you ordered takes up an eighth of the space inside the box!!!

[howardmallisonii]

Business planning boils down to placing your bets and spinning the wheel. Where she stops, nobody knows...

[paulmiller]

If airlines and other businesses would have supported freedom and catered to people who wanted to live their lives normally they would have been heroes with plenty of business.