Logical fallacies EXPOSED! #1 Base rate fallacy and Simpson’s paradox

Many people use logical fallacies in arguments. This is particularly common on social media. In this video, Dr Susan Oliver and Cindy the dog will be discussing two of these fallacies, the base rate fallacy and Simpson’s paradox. If you see anyone using these fallacies, please share this video with them.

Logical fallacies playlist:

Links to data:

On Simpson's Paradox and the Sure-Thing Principle

USA Vaccination by age

How do death rates from COVID-19 differ between people who are vaccinated and those who are not?

[wpgspecb]

It's sad that this need to be said.

[TheRewiredSoul]

Yessss! Fallacies are so important to learn. I’ve been teaching them to my 13 year old son. And THANK YOU! The base rate fallacy finally makes sense 😂 the ones with numbers mess me up because I’m not a numbers guy lol

[NonAbsoluteAbsolutisim]

To my way of thinking the two worst logical fallacies are the intentional and unintentional misuse of logic. Often achieved by using inappropriate logic for the circumstances.

[matthewbrust]

As always, thanks for taking the time to make these videos. I try to avoid people who have been making these claims online, ad nauseam, but if I see one I’ll surely share this video

[snazhound]

The series is quite interesting. I studied these topics in statistics and logic, but a refresh with a different take is quite interesting. Cheers from Canada

[irene]

Thank you Dr Susan. Looking forward to seeing the rest of the series.

[silversun]

You can lead a horse to water... they still won't believe

[imaginationscene]

Oh we need this so much, thank you cant wait to see the rest.

[johnt]

Logical fallacies! Thank you Dr. Oliver. One can only say- Live long and prosper.

[diandian]

Great video, I look forward to more on this very necessary topic!

[mimo]

I’m watching the whole series great viewing.

[J-DUB-F]

You can never have too many explanations of logical fallacies, and how they fit in with all the antivax chazerai!.
Thank you always for being one of the best voices of reason out there logical accuracy 😏👍

[gsynth]

In discussions about police brutality in the U.S., it's frequently brought up that more white people are shot and killed by police each year than black people. The implication is that black people are no more at risk in an encounter with police than white people, or are perhaps at a lower risk. The overlooked or ignored context is that white people outnumber black people by about a 6 to 1 ratio. I think this is also a good example of the base rate fallacy.

I'm eager to learn more about fallacies, so I'm intrigued that you're making this series! Thank you!

[henkvandergaast]

OK Susan.. what are you doing with centrifuge tubes at home? Surely we can all relate to glasses of fine Austalian wines?

[iainmalcolm]

Makes perfect sense. But 'sense' is unfortunately what is lacking for some people.

[Costa_Conn]

Never realised there was a name for Base rate fallacy. I always called it the dumb arse fallacy.

[TacticsOgre]

The usuals runnin' scared, their fallacies exposed.

[williamverhoef]

Well done, Dr. Oliver, on the concise and succinct description of these two common fallacies. I have seen both of the graphs you used, and they are excellent. A picture says a thousand words as they say. Of course, many vaccine deniers are unaware of logical fallacies of any kind, but especially these two particularly prominent ones. I have had discussions with people who cannot seem to understand that you must use rates - such as the number per 100, 000 for example - and not raw numbers when you compare the risks of two different groups. Other vaccine deniers do eventually become aware of these fallacies but seem unable to understand them, which speaks volumes. I hope this video helps. Others, of course, do understand them but pretend otherwise in order to continue to drive the anti vaccine narrative. Clearly they have non science-based motivations to deny the science. It is just far too easy to be wrong and sound convincing when you haven't done the hard work of understanding science that counteracts your claims. This is what we are up against. Thanks again for adding your efforts to the cause of public science literacy .

[wendy]

Another great video. Loved the green and orange tubes

[TomDayton]

My favorite current example of Simpson's paradox is the incorrect conclusion from population-level statistics, that more recent versions of the SARS-COV-2 virus inherently cause less severe disease. I think you covered this in an earlier video. In fact, the lower severity when collapsed across the subpopulations of variously vaccinated and previously infected people, is due to immunity by vaccination and previous infection (at least for Omicron versus prior versions).